Rating the 2026 NFL Rookie Wide Receivers: Post-NFL Draft Rookie Super Model Ratings
Fantasy

Rating the 2026 NFL Rookie Wide Receivers: Post-NFL Draft Rookie Super Model Ratings

Dwain McFarland unveils the 2026 Wide Receiver Rookie Super Model, going prospect by prospect to break down how they grade in the model and how they profile as fantasy football prospects.

Published Updated

Have you ever wondered how NFL Draft prospects stack up across multiple factors—draft pick, collegiate production and film? Yeah, me too.

That's why I built the Rookie Super Model. And it has a strong track record compared to NFL Draft pick alone. Using well-researched inputs that matter for WR prospects, we rate and tier the top 2026 WRs, with player comps and historical fantasy hit rates included.

Analysis here focuses on the bottom line, but full write-ups are linked throughout and accessible via the Fantasy Life NFL Draft Guide under the Analysis tab. As we get updated mock draft and actual draft pick data, we will update the Rookie Super Model.

WHAT IS THE WR ROOKIE SUPER MODEL?

New to the Rookie Super Model? The introductory guide covers all the inputs by position and includes a glossary for any unfamiliar terms. One of the key data points we use to normalize collegiate production is Career Adjusted Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (RYPTPA). While that sounds like a mouthful, it is really important. See another term or acronym you aren't familiar with? Just scroll to the bottom to see our handy-dandy glossary!

Returning Super Model lovers, welcome to Year 4!

In short, the model calculates a rating between 50 and 100 based on what has historically mattered most for NFL production. It accounts for age, strength of schedule, program quality and teammates to normalize comparisons.

Don't fixate on exact grades—focus on tiers and range of outcomes. That's how you find over- and underpriced assets.

Below is a review of how WR prospects fared based on Rookie Super Model rating. For example, 75% of the WRs rated between 90 and 100 achieved a top-24 PPR finish by Year 3 versus 64% for WRs rated 80 to 89.

image.png

Nerd-Note.webp Nerd Note: Prospecting for WRs is the hardest out of RBs, WRs and TEs. Our hit rates on top-12 and top-24 players are lower than at RB. Still, the model is more predictive than NFL draft pick alone, which also deals with lower high-end hit rates at WR.

This makes sense. If you are a great RB prospect (especially high picks), you are usually getting your touches eventually. That typically translates to fantasy points. But at WR, getting on the field is just the first step. You have other WRs to compete with for targets, and some teams are loaded. The play of your QB is also a significant factor.

HOW DO THE 2026 WR DRAFT PROSPECTS COMPARE TO PRIOR YEARS?

The data below shows the number of elite, great, and good prospects from each class since 2018:

  • 2018: 0, 2, 8 (10)
  • 2019: 0, 3, 8 (11)
  • 2020: 3, 4, 9 (16)
  • 2021: 3, 3, 8 (14)
  • 2022: 1, 5, 8 (14)
  • 2023: 0, 4, 8 (12)
  • 2024: 2, 4, 10 (16)
  • 2025: 2, 3, 6 (11)
  • 2026: 1, 3, 12 (16)

The 2026 class has four players in the elite or good buckets, which is solid, although not quite on par with the best WR classes. It is worth noting that the overall lack of blue-chip prospects across positions likely pushed some of the early WR picks up NFL Draft boards. That matters because draft pick is the No. 1 input in the model.

The class also has 12 players in the good-prospect bucket, a record since the model's inception. The hit rate is lower for that cohort, but with so many, some will become valuable in fantasy.

The 2026 WR class ties the record for the most overrated WRs in the top 100 NFL Draft picks with four. That matches 2024, when the model viewed Xavier Legette, Ja'Lynn Polk, Malachi Corley and Luke McCaffrey as significantly overdrafted by the NFL. The Rookie Super Model has been incredibly accurate at calling busts, so we will denote these players as we go.

2026 WR ROOKIE SUPER MODEL RATINGS & TIERS

With the macro-level data out of the way, it's time to dive into the prospects, y'all! See below for how the Rookie Super Model rates each incoming rookie wideout and how they bucket into individual tiers.

Tier 1: WR2 Prospects with Borderline WR1 Upside

Carnell Tate | Titans

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Eight WRs have garnered a Super Model rating between 90 and 100 since 2018, with 75% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 38%
  • Top-12 finishes: 38%
  • Top-24 finishes: 75%
  • Top-36 finishes: 88%

Tate's closest Rookie Super Model prospect comps:

  • Jaylen Waddle
  • Rome Odunze
  • Jameson Williams

Nerd-Note.webp Nerd Note: The Rookie Super Model doesn't care as much about size and speed for the comparisons. It prioritizes Draft Capital Rating and Production Rating first because they matter most for predicting future fantasy production. Then size and speed might get used as a tie-breaker where it makes sense.

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Tate as a mid-Round 1 talent—he went higher, but comps closer to previous high picks not named Ja'Marr Chase and Malik Nabers due to a lower production rating. Still, he carved out a substantial role in a loaded Buckeyes offense as a contested-catch specialist who attacks all three levels. He's not a high-end YAC player, so chunk plays will come downfield, but TD upside is strong. With the Titans, Tate should immediately take over a full-time role and has a shot to lead the team in all receiving categories. He's a WR2 with WR1 upside.

Carnell Tate complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Jordyn Tyson | Saints

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 12 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 84 and 94, with 75% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 25%
  • Top-12 finishes: 33%
  • Top-24 finishes: 75%
  • Top-36 finishes: 88%

Tyson's closest Super Model comps:

  • DeVonta Smith
  • Chris Olave
  • Jerry Jeudy

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Tyson as a mid-Round 1 pick. He immediately produced as an 18-year-old and dominated against stronger competition over his final two seasons—making him the leader in the clubhouse if you're betting on which rookie WR becomes an NFL target hog. He's not a high-end YAC player, but his demonstrated ceiling as a target earner is the highest in the class. In New Orleans, he should get instant playing time opposite Chris Olave in a highly concentrated passing game. Tyson is a mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside. He is the WR1 in the class in my personal rookie ranks.

Jordyn Tyson complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile. 

Tier 2: WR3 Prospects With WR2 Upside

Makai Lemon | Eagles

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 28 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 78 and 88, with 50% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 14%
  • Top-12 finishes: 21%
  • Top-24 finishes: 50%
  • Top-36 finishes: 57%

Lemon's closest Super Model comps:

  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba
  • Emeka Egbuka
  • Zay Flowers

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Lemon as a mid-first-round NFL Draft prospect. His role and production improved every season in a strong program that played against high-quality competition. His best fit early is likely from the slot, but he isn't a gimmick player—Lemon can stretch defenses and move the sticks in contested situations. With the Eagles, Lemon will battle Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown, assuming A.J. Brown is traded for the WR2 role behind DeVonta Smith. Lemon profiles as a WR3 with WR2 upside.

Makai Lemon complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

KC Concepcion | Browns

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 33 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 77 and 87, with 45% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 12%
  • Top-12 finishes: 21%
  • Top-24 finishes: 45%
  • Top-36 finishes: 55%

Concepcion's closest Super Model comps:

  • DJ Moore
  • Luther Burden III
  • Jalen Reagor

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Concepcion as a mid-to-late Round 1 prospect. He produced in Year 1, struggled in Year 2, then rebounded in Year 3 after transferring to Texas A&M. If that final-season version is the real Concepcion, he offers significant upside as a player who can work inside or outside and attack all three levels—a true YAC maven who can also threaten intermediate and deep zones. He profiles as a borderline WR3 with WR2 upside. With the Browns, he should challenge for WR1 immediately, but Cleveland's offense has multiple mouths to feed and an unresolved QB situation.

KC Concepcion complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Tier 3: Borderline WR3 Prospects with WR2 Upside

Omar Cooper Jr. | Jets

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 47 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 75 and 85, with 47% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 11%
  • Top-24 finishes: 34%
  • Top-36 finishes: 47%

Cooper's closest Super Model comps:

  • Ladd McConkey
  • Matthew Golden
  • Terrace Marshall Jr.

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model rates Cooper as an early Round 2 pick. A slow starter whose production never met Round 1 expectations until Year 4, when he moved inside and became a YAC monster on Indiana's National Championship team. With the Jets, he fits best as the Z WR who kicks inside in three-WR sets, battling Adonai Mitchell for time opposite Garrett Wilson. The Jets have short-term QB questions, but three Round 1 picks next year give them a path to fix it. Cooper is a borderline WR3 with WR2 upside.

Omar Cooper Jr. complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Tier 4: WR4 Prospects with WR3 Upside

De'Zhaun Stribling | 49ers

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 58 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 71 and 81, with 36% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 5%
  • Top-12 finishes: 12%
  • Top-24 finishes: 28%
  • Top-36 finishes: 36%

Stribling's closest Super Model comps:

  • Rashee Rice
  • Ricky Pearsall (not kidding)
  • Dante Pettis (not kidding)

Nerd-Note.webpNerd Note: With the Rookie Super Model, I keep track of the history of deltas between the model and draft pick rank to help identify over- and under-rated prospects. Since 2018, nine top-64 WR NFL Draft picks have ranked 20+ spots lower in the model rank than their draft pick. Only one—Rashee Rice—went on to produce a top-36 season or better. Stribling has a delta of -23.

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model sees Stribling as a Day 3 pick. He earned playing time early in his career, but was just never able to bend the curve from average to great. He has good size and YAC ability, which theoretically gives him outs in a Kyle Shanahan offense that schemes up designed and underneath targets for this archetype. Stribling will battle Ricky Pearsall and Christian Kirk for playing time. He is a WR4 with WR3 upside, but carries significant bust potential.

De'Zhaun Stribling complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Denzel Boston | Browns

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 60 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 70 and 80, with 30% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 5%
  • Top-12 finishes: 10%
  • Top-24 finishes: 23%
  • Top-36 finishes: 30%

Boston's closest Super Model comps:

  • Michael Pittman Jr.
  • Chase Claypool
  • Van Jefferson

Nerd-Note.webpNerd Note: With the Rookie Super Model, I keep track of the history of deltas between the model and draft pick rank to help identify over- and under-rated prospects. Since 2018, nine top-64 WR NFL Draft picks have ranked 20+ spots lower in the model rank than their draft pick. Only one—Rashee Rice—went on to produce a top-36 season or better. Boston has a delta of -23.

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Boston as overrated for an early-Round 2 pick. The model accounts for teammate competition, but it is an edge case that impacted his early playing time at Washington. Still, Justin Jefferson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Emeka Egbuka and Chris Olave all overcame more loaded programs. Boston is a possession-style prospect who'll battle KC Concepcion and Jerry Jeudy for playing time in Cleveland, with Harold Fannin already commanding a heavy target share. Plus, big QB question marks still loom. Boston is a WR4 with WR3 upside but has considerable red flags.

Denzel Boston complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Germie Bernard | Steelers

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 62 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 69 and 79, with 30% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 3%
  • Top-12 finishes: 8%
  • Top-24 finishes: 21%
  • Top-36 finishes: 30%

Bernard's closest Super Model comps:

  • Michael Wilson
  • Jaylin Noel
  • Devin Duvernay

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model sees Bernard as a Round 3 NFL Draft pick. He is a strong YAC player who can line up inside or outside and add value as a rusher, but was never an offensive focal point in college. With the Steelers, he has a strong shot at the WR3 role behind DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. in Year 1, with an out on Pittman's contract in 2027 that could open more opportunity in Year 2. The long-term QB situation remains a question mark. Bernard is a WR4 profile with WR3 upside.

Germie Bernard complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Elijah Sarratt | Ravens

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 62 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 69 and 79, with 30% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 3%
  • Top-12 finishes: 8%
  • Top-24 finishes: 21%
  • Top-36 finishes: 30%

Sarratt's closest Super Model comps:

  • Jayden Higgins
  • Troy Franklin
  • David Bell

Nerd-Note.webpNerd Note: With the Rookie Super Model, I keep track of the history of deltas between the model and draft pick rank to help identify over- and under-rated prospects. Since 2018, five top-120 WR NFL Draft picks have ranked 30+ spots higher in the model rank than their draft pick: Marvin Mims Jr., DK Metcalf, Nico Collins, Troy Franklin, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Three of those put up a top-12 WR season by Year 3.

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Sarratt as a Round 2-3 pick, but he slipped to Round 4. He was highly productive throughout his college career, but separation concerns and a heavy diet of contested targets hurt his Film Rating. It's fair to wonder if an NFL QB will force-feed him the way Fernando Mendoza did, despite having Omar Cooper in the fold. In Baltimore, he'll compete with Rashod Bateman and Ja'Kobi Lane for targets opposite Zay Flowers. Sarratt is a WR4 with WR3 upside.

Elijah Sarratt complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Chris Brazzell II | Panthers

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 68 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 68 and 78, with 28% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 3%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 19%
  • Top-36 finishes: 28%

Brazzell's closest Super Model comps:

  • Nico Collins
  • Alec Pierce
  • Jermaine Burton
  • DeVontez Walker

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Brazzell as a borderline Round 2 NFL Draft pick. He checks the size and speed boxes that NFL teams like and could pay immediate dividends as a boundary field stretcher. However, whether he can grow into a high-volume player is a question mark. In Carolina, the WR3 role behind Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker is wide open—and maybe even the WR2 role in two-WR sets. However, the passing game has limitations with Bryce Young at the helm. Brazzell is a borderline WR4 profile with WR3 upside in fantasy.

Chris Brazzell complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Antonio Williams | Commanders

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 72 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 67 and 77, with 25% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 17%
  • Top-36 finishes: 25%

Williams' closest Super Model comps:

  • Rashee Rice
  • Jaylin Noel
  • Khalil Shakir

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Williams as a late Round 3 NFL Draft pick. He was a below-average producer in college but battled injuries, flashing when given opportunities, and adding value as a rusher and in the return game. The data and film are at odds on his YAC ability, creating question marks. In Washington, a good QB in Jayden Daniels, and a clear path to the No. 2 role behind Terry McLaurin in a WR room without proven depth. Williams is a borderline WR4 with WR3 upside in fantasy football.

Antonio Williams complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Ja'kobi Lane | Ravens

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 72 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 67 and 77, with 25% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 17%
  • Top-36 finishes: 25%

Lane's closest Super Model comps:

  • Dante Pettis
  • Pat Bryant
  • Michael Wilson

Bottom line: The Super Model sees Lane as a Round 3 NFL Draft talent. He doesn't have a hang-your-hat trait outside of contested-catch ability, which could be a negative if his inability to play through traffic is the driver of his high contested-target rate rather than QB trust. He could develop into a red zone threat, but must improve to be more. In Baltimore, he will compete with Elijah Sarratt and Devontez Walker as the Ravens look to turn the page on Rashod Bateman as the WR2. Lane is a borderline WR4 with WR3 potential.

Ja'Kobi Lane complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Ted Hurst | Buccaneers

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 72 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 67 and 77, with 25% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 17%
  • Top-36 finishes: 25%

Hurst's closest Super Model comps:

  • Adonai Mitchell
  • Denzel Mims
  • Tre'Quan Smith

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Hurst as a field-stretching Round 3 NFL Draft prospect. He was a strong target earner at Georgia State, which is in his potential range of outcomes in the NFL, but it is a big step up in competition. With the Bucs, he will battle Jalen McMillan for reps as a vertical threat, with Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin handling the underneath and intermediate work. Hurst is a borderline WR4 with WR3 upside in fantasy.

Ted Hurst complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Tier 5: WR5-6 Prospects with WR4 Upside

Zachariah Branch | Falcons

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 75 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 65 and 75, with 17% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 12%
  • Top-36 finishes: 17%

Branch's closest Super Model comps:

  • Parris Campbell
  • Malachi Corley
  • Amari Rodgers

Bottom line: The Super Model views Branch as a Round 3 pick. He was a Round 2 player on consensus big boards, but slipped into Round 3. Nice job, Rookie Super Model! Branch can add value around the line of scrimmage after the catch and provide punch on special teams. But he must prove he can be more than a gadget player. His snaps could be capped. Branch's landing spot in Atlanta is solid, where he can challenge Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus for playing time opposite Drake London. Historically, his archetype has not lived up to fantasy expectations, making him a WR5 with WR4 upside.

Zachariah Branch complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Malachi Fields | Giants

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 75 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 65 and 75, with 17% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 12%
  • Top-36 finishes: 17%

Fields' closest Super Model comps:

  • Chase Claypool
  • Cedric Tillman
  • Pat Bryant

Bottom line: Fields went in Round 3 of the NFL Draft, but grades out as a borderline Round 4 prospect in the Rookie Super Model. His Production Rating is below average, but his Film Rating points toward a player who could become a starter for an NFL team. He is a big player who can win when the ball is in the air, but doesn't have top-end speed or make-you-miss ability after the grab. With the Giants, he will try to push Darnell Mooney and Darius Slayton for playing time opposite Malik Nabers. Fields is a WR5 prospect with WR4 upside in fantasy football.

Malachi Fields complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Chris Bell | Dolphins

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 75 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 65 and 75, with 17% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 12%
  • Top-36 finishes: 17%

Bell's closest Super Model comps:

  • Bryan Edwards
  • Rashee Rice
  • Parker Washington

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Bell as a Round 3 pick and average college producer, but his big-bodied YAC ability and elite landing spot make him intriguing. He might need a creative offense that uses motion and play-action to get into space—and he's recovering from an ACL injury. If healthy, he has a wide-open depth chart in Miami and a real shot at the WR1 role in Year 1. The model has him as a WR5 with WR4 upside, but I have him as the WR6 in the class with WR3 upside in my rookie ranks, given his YAC ability and Miami's WR situation.

Chris Bell complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile. 

Bryce Lance | Saints

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 75 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 65 and 75, with 17% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 12%
  • Top-36 finishes: 17%

Lance's closest Super Model comps:

  • D'Wayne Eskridge
  • Tyquan Thornton
  • DeVontez Walker

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Lance as a Day 3 NFL Draft pick. His extremely late breakout against low-level competition hurts his Production Rating. He has the raw athletic traits that could earn him a role as a field-stretcher. But he will need to broaden his skill set to become a primary option. The fun part about targeting Lance in fantasy football: at least he flashed dominant upside over his final two years and backed it up with a great NFL Scouting Combine. In New Orleans, he will push for the WR3 role behind Chris Olave and Jordyn Tyson. Lance is a WR5 with WR4 upside.

Bryce Lance complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Caleb Douglas | Dolphins

  • Super Model Rating: 69.4 (125th since 2018)
  • Draft Pick: 75
  • Rookie Age: 23
  • Height: 75.5 inches
  • Weight: 206 pounds
image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 71 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 64 and 74, with 14% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 4%
  • Top-24 finishes: 9%
  • Top-36 finishes: 14%

Douglas's closest Super Model comps:

  • Roman Wilson
  • Tyquan Thornton
  • Dont'e Thornton Jr.

Bottom line: Douglas went in Round 3 of the NFL Draft to Miami, but the Rookie Super Model views him as a Douglas mid-to-late Day 3 pick. He was a three-star recruit who never had a great season of production. His best years came in Years 3 and 4 at Texas Tech after transferring from Florida. He was primarily utilized 10-plus yards downfield with a 13.8 aDOT (64th percentile). However, the Dolphins have a lackluster WR depth chart where he will battle Malik Washington and Chris Bell for playing time. He could add a vertical element to the offense. Douglas is a WR6 prospect with WR4 upside.

Skyler Bell | Bills

image.png
Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 71 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 64 and 74, with 14% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 4%
  • Top-24 finishes: 9%
  • Top-36 finishes: 14%

Bell's closest Super Model comps:

  • Khalil Shakir
  • Jaylin Noel
  • Jalen Royals

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Bell as a Round 4 NFL Draft pick. His late breakout dampens his production rating. But he could develop into a solid target earner in the NFL, and if he has untapped field-stretching upside, he could turn into a quality fantasy option. With the Bills, the door is open to challenge Josh Palmer and Keon Coleman for playing time early in his career. With Josh Allen at QB, that is a plus. Bell is a WR6 with WR4 upside per the model, but I see him as a WR5 with WR3 upside in my rookie rankings.

Skyler Bell complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

To see how the rest of the 2026 class fared, check them out in the Rookie Super Model tool, where you can compare all prospects back to 2018 at WR.

Data Glossary:

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
  • aDOT: Average depth of target in yards.
  • Career Targeted QB Passer Rating: Passer rating on WR's targets.
  • Contested catch rate: Percentage of contested targets caught.
  • Contested catch rate over expected: Percentage of contested targets caught after adjusting for aDOT.
  • Draft Capital Rating: Based on Chase Stuart's Draft Value Chart, an improved version of what many know as the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It accounts for the larger drop-off in the first round and a flatter drop-off around the end of the second round.
  • FDPRR: First downs per route run. Often shown as a percentage (first downs divided by routes).
  • Film Rating: Based on NFL.com prospect grades from Lance Zierlein.
  • Production Rating: A combination of adjusted career RYPTPA and career targeted QB passer rating.
  • Program Quality Rating: ESPN's College Football Power Index is used to assess program quality. The model accounts for each school a prospect attended.
  • RYPTPA: receiving yards per team pass attempt.
  • SOS Rating: Based on strength of schedule (SOS) from Sports Reference. The model accounts for each school the prospect attended.
  • Target Share: A player's percentage of team targets in games played.
  • TPRR: Targets per route run.
  • YAC: Average yards after the catch.
  • YAC over expected: YAC over expected after adjusting for aDOT.
  • YPG: Yards per game.
  • YPRR: Yards per route run.

Published Updated