We’re back for Week 15. 

We took a small hit last week, going 2-3 with a couple of props just missing. Even with the small losing week, the top five plays are now 16-9 since Week 10. Not too bad. 

For a full recap of how the individual NFL player props, see the bottom of this piece (or click here).

I’ll again be adding in a few Underdog Pick’em lineups at the end of the article. If you’re not familiar with Pick’em, make sure you check out our suite of Pick’em Tools and our free tracker where I post plays from Underdog and other sites every week. 

Just like usual, you can find all my Week 15 bets in our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.

If you're a more serious sports speculator, you can also access the Fantasy Life weekly fantasy rankings and player projections with a FantasyLife+ subscription. 

For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.

Let’s dive in and get to this week’s top five props …

Top Five NFL Player Props For Week 15

C.J. Stroud Over 32.5 passing attempts

  • Odds: -115 (bet365)
  • Projection: 33.0

Even in a down year, the Texans haven’t been shy about unleashing Stroud. Houston sits 10th in attempts per game on the season (34.2) and Stroud at home has cleared this 32.5 total in all six of his home games (36.16 per game). 

That trend alone should have us interested in the over this week on his attempts total, which sits at a conservative 32.5. However, the opponent is what makes this a sweet spot for Stroud to potentially crush this bet. 

The Dolphins have now allowed 7.4 yards per attempt over their past three games and are one of the worst teams at generating pressure, currently sitting 31st in sacks per game. They’re also a solid rush defense, sitting ninth in success rate vs the run, and have allowed just 4.2 yards per carry over their last three games. 

That, coupled with the fact their offense has taken flight of late (27.7 points per game over their last three starts), has pushed opposing offenses into more pass-heavy game scripts. Six of the past seven QBs facing the Dolphins have now thrown the ball 36 times or more against this Dolphins' defense and they’ve reached those totals despite having efficient days through the air.

With a close 3.0-point spread and plenty of playoff implications at stake this week, I’d be fine playing the over on this line even with a little juice attached—up to -130 if need be.

Unless Miami completely implodes, it’s likely we see Stroud continue to follow his trend of heavy passing volume when at home in Week 15.

Mike Williams Over 18.5 receiving yards 

  • Odds: -110 (bet365)
  • Projection: 26.0

Williams looks set to play a meaningful role for the Steelers again in Week 15. 

Last week, with George Pickens a late scratch, he ended up playing on 19 snaps, but still managed a 20% target rate and made some meaningful plays for the Steelers, going for 3 receptions and 36 yards (4 targets) on the day.  

Having bet Williams’ over when his props were released last week, I was a little surprised to see his yardage total was set at pretty much the exact same line they were at before Week 15.

Even if we’re accounting for a tough matchup with the Eagles, it’s hard not to project Williams for at least a slight bump in playing time after he’s had a full week of practice and time to integrate into the offense.

Taking this one step further, at 6’4", Williams may also be the Steelers' best option to counteract the Eagles' secondary as he’ll have a 4-inch height advantage over both of the Eagles' starting corners in Darius Slay and Quinyon Mitchell.

We have Williams projected in the mid-20s, so as long as the juice stays at -120 or lower I’d be fine playing this up to 19.5. 

Malik Nabers Over 62.5 rec yards

  • Odds: -110 (bet365)
  • Projection: 70.0 

Nabers essentially played on one good leg last week with a QB who completed well under 50% of his passes and still managed to go for five catches and 79 yards.

The rookie has dealt with some injury issues as the season has progressed but when asked this week after practice, he didn’t shy away from the fact that his goal as the Giants finish out the season was to reach 1,000 yards.

There is a little bit of tail risk with a player who may not be 100%, but seeing him get through last week’s game unscathed, while also talking to the media this week, are both bullish signals.

The game this week projects to be a Ravens blowout, as they’re now up to 16.5-point favorites in some spots and could be 17.0-plus-point favorites by kickoff. That’s also potentially great for Nabers, who will likely see a lot of prevent defense late, against a Ravens secondary that has allowed the third most receiving yards to opposing WRs.

As long as we don’t get a downgrade in injury status on Friday, it’s wheels up for the rookie whose over looks enticing enough to play up to 64.5 yards in this spot.

Saquon Barkley Over 12.5 receiving yards

  • Odds: +100 (bet365)
  • Projection: 18.0

I mentioned Barkley’s receiving over as a play when the Eagles took on the Rams in primetime back in Week 12. He smashed for 4 catches and 47 yards that week but has seen his props come back down to where they were set against the Rams, after two slow receiving days vs the Panthers and Ravens.

For the year, he’s now caught at least two passes in all but three of his starts and has gone for 10-plus receiving yards in five of his last six games, with the zero receiving yards he put against the Panthers his only game where he didn’t catch a single pass.

Overall, the move down to 12.5 yards this week seems like an overreaction. On top of having him projected in the high teens for receiving yards on Fantasy Life, he’s taking on a Steelers team that is solid up front (6th in yards per carry against) but somewhat vulnerable to screens and short passing.

They’ve allowed at least one opposing RB to go for more than 12.0 receiving yards in nine of 14 games this season to date and have allowed an 80% conversion rate on targets to RBs.

With Barkley likely to play his usual 80-95% of the snaps in an important, playoff-like game, I don’t think it’s a poor idea to be bullish on him regaining momentum as a receiver in Week 15.

I’d be fine playing this up to 13.5 (-110) if needed.  

Kyler Murray Under 30.5 Pass Attempts

  • Odds: -114 (Fanduel)
  • Projection: 29.0

The Cardinals are reeling after three straight losses. Part of the problem has been the poor play of QB Kyler Murray, who has thrown 3 TDs vs. 5 INTs over that span. 

The Cardinals will need Murray to be better if they want to start winning games again, but I do think we’ll see them attempt to simplify things this week against the Patriots to help get their QB back on track.

New England is a poor rush defense that ranks just 21st in success rate vs the run and makes sense as an opponent to approach with a more run-heavy simplistic game plan. They don’t have an explosive offense and have a rookie QB you can bait into mistakes on defense.

On top of the matchup favoring a slower day for Murray through the air, the Cardinals have also tended to be more conservative in approach when at home. In his seven home starts this year, Murray has averaged just 26.4 pass attempts and has only thrown the ball more than 30 times twice in those seven starts—Week 3 vs the Lions (34) and Week 14 vs the Seahawks (38).

With Murray projected at 29.0 attempts this week, I’d be fine to play this under down to -130 at the current line.

Dive into more NFL Player Projections to find the biggest edges and what the best props are for Week 15 below!

NFL Player Props Tool

Week 15 Underdog Pick’em Plays

Quick Note. You can find all my weekly Underdog plays in our FREE Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, where we are now up well over 60 units on the season.

Keep checking there for more plays as the season wears on.

Underdog Card 1 (3-way, 6.44x multiplier)

This is a combination of two of our props from above. I extended Williams’ receiving total to 29.5, which boosted our payout to over 6x and added in a Wilson higher on his passing yardage to correlate. 

As I mentioned above, this game should be a closer affair which I think helps the potential for Barkley’s receiving yards as well.

 

Underdog Card #2 (5-way, 11.9x multiplier) 

Two mini-game stacks from ARZ-NE and HOU-MIA. 

The 31.5 lower on Murray paired with the higher on receptions for Kendrick Bourne, who has been a good possession receiver for Drake Maye, makes sense from a correlation perspective. 

Another way to play the Houston passing game is to take a higher on Tank Dell’s yardage this week, whose regular line is set at 42.5. Combining that with a higher on 0.5 TDs for Tyreek Hill (5 TDs in last six games)—against a Texans secondary that has allowed the second most TDs to WRs this season (19)—gives us the premise of a back-and-forth game where the WRs star against two mediocre secondaries. 

 

Underdog Card #3 (3-way, 5.65x multiplier) 

I made the case for Nabers to excel above (from a yardage perspective anyway) as he’s likely to keep getting work regardless of the score this week. The team getting him to 1,000 yards is about the only positive they may take from this season.

I doubt the Ravens will be dropping back a ton in this game so expect Mark Andrews to be blocking more than usual. Correlating his lower with a higher on 1.5 receptions for Justice Hill, who could see more field as the Ravens pull away made plenty of sense to get this to a 3-way with a decent 5.65 multiplier. 

Be sure to check out our Underdog NFL Pick'em Builder to get the best edges when building your Week 15 Pick'em entries below!

Underdog NFL Pick'em Builder

Recapping My Week 14 Props