Geoff Ulrich places the Week 15 Sunday Night Football Best Bets for the Packers. vs. Seahawks.

This will be the second prime-time game in a row for the Packers, who are coming off a close Thursday Night loss to the Lions in Week 14. Green Bay is now 9-4 and in possession of the sixth seed in the NFC, one game ahead of the Commanders. 

It’s an important spot to be in as the 7th seed will almost certainly face either the Eagles or Lions in Round 1, which would be a far tougher matchup than the currently projected No. 3 seed (which happens to be the Seahawks). 

The Packers are now winners of seven of their last nine games, with their only losses in that span coming against the Lions. They are dealing with injuries in the secondary but rank 8th in EPA per play on defense and have moved up to 5th in EPA per dropback on offense thanks to some stellar play from Jordan Love of late. 

The Seahawks have also been on a nice run of late. After looking like they might be the odd man out in the NFC West this season, Seattle has now managed to reel off four wins in a row, with three of those wins coming against division rivals. 

The Seahawks are right there defensively with Green Bay, ranking 9th in EPA per play for the season. While they have plenty of talent on offense, they have been held back by a poor offensive line (29th in EPA per rush) and sporadic QB play from Geno Smith, who is just 20th in EPA per play this season. 

So, with two of the NFC’s more elite teams going at it, will we get a tight, higher-scoring game? Or will one team be able to assert its dominance and pull away for a signature win?

We’ll go over that and more below, along with the best bets for this week’s SNF game.

Seahawks +2.5 (-105; bet365) vs. Packers -2.5 (-115; bet365) 46.0

 

Injury notes Packers:

Jaire Alexander CB OUT

Corey Ballentine DB QUESTIONABLE

Javon Bullard SAF OUT

Luke Musgrave TE OUT

 

Injury Notes Seahawks

Kenneth Walker III RB DOUBTFUL

Tre Brown CB OUT

Jerrick Reed II FS OUT

Brady Russell TE OUT

Stone Forsythe T DOUBTFUL

Artie Burns CB DOUBTFUL

K'Von Wallace SS OUT

Both teams have injury concerns coming into this game. For the Packers, they could once again see multiple players playing out of position in the secondary with Jaire Alexnder’s knee still not healthy. DB Corey Ballatine is also questionable and SS Javon Bullard is out. 

The good news is that they’ll have rookie safety Evan Williams back, but the chaos in the secondary is likely to create a good opportunity for the Seahawks to move the ball with some chunk plays through the air. 

The exact same thing could be said about the Seattle secondary. They’re likely going to be down three players, including starting outside corner Tre Brown. Kenneth Walker also looks set to miss his second game in a row but that’s not as big a deal given their depth at RB with Zach Charbonnet. 

Spread and Total

I placed a Green Bay -2.5 bet in our Free NFL Bet Tracker early in the week. I figured the worst-case scenario for me was that the injury news on the Packers wouldn’t break my way and the line would stay around 2.5 all week—but that it would move in my favor if Alexander were able to play. 

Well, it’s Sunday now and Alexander isn’t playing, but the line also hasn’t moved. So while I didn’t get any Closing Line Value (CLV), I’m still happy to be on the Packers at under a FG.  

The Packers' backups will have to make some plays in the secondary at some point, but even with the injuries last week they were able to play Detroit, play-for-play, and nearly pulled off the huge road upset on Thursday Night Football. 

Love is also playing at a high level, having posted a 118.8 passer rating with 6 TDs and 1 INT since the Packers' bye week. While Geno Smith does have some solid splits as an underdog for his career, Seattle is also just 2-5 ATS at home and 1-3 ATS as a home underdog under new head coach Mike Macdonald this season. 

Add in the three-day rest advantage with the Packers having played 10 days ago and I’m happy to have the Green Bay side at anything less than FG. 

As for the total, our game model has this projected at 46.3, which is just a hair over the current total of 46.0. There is the possibility we get some showers up in the Northwest, but other than that the weather doesn’t look overly punitive. I likely won’t have exposure to the total but would lean to the over given the injury issues both defenses are facing. 

I break down the best props and more for the Packers at Seahawks below. 

Seahawks vs. Packers Best Bets: 

Jayden Reed Over 39.5 receiving yards (-113; FanDuel)

  • 60+ yards (+240; FanDuel)
  • 70+ yards (+360; FanDuel)
  • 80+ yards (+540; FanDuel)

I like being a buyer on Reed in this spot with his prop hovering at seasonal lows. 

Reed may not have been the focus of this Packers offense over the last month, but it’s always good to step back and look at the big picture in these situations. Despite going for less than 30 receiving yards in four straight starts, nothing has changed with Reed the player. He’s healthy and typically dominates slot snaps, taking over 77% of his snaps from the slot so far this season. 

Reed’s biggest crime is likely just being a part of an offense that has run the ball effectively over the last month, which has led to some lower-volume passing days. Over the last three weeks, only Philadelphia (20.7) has averaged fewer pass attempts per game than Green Bay (23.7). 

At some point, they’ll have to rely more on the pass. 

This week, the Packers will take on a Seahawks team with explosive options of their own at WR, and a defense that will be down Tre Brown and Jerrick Reed in the secondary. It could lead to both Green Bay needing to play at a faster pace (to counteract the Seattle offense) and more big plays in the passing game, thanks to Seattle defenders playing out of position. 

With Reed having gone for 70+ yards in four starts already this season, this is also a spot I’ll be looking at laddering for betting. Currently, the best prices on his props are at FanDuel, but I would play him down to +210 (60+), +340 (+70), and +500 (80+) if need be, and may also look to include an anytime TD into the mix if I wanted to extend out the play for maximum upside. 

Underdog Card (3-way; 10.34x)

Jordan Love over 1.5 passing TDs (-105; FanDuel) is another prop I entered into our free NFL bet tracker early this week. He’s projected for 1.6 passing TDs on Fantasy Life and faces a Seattle team that has allowed multiple passing TDs in over half (7/13) of their games this season. 

Since I’m bullish on Jordan Love getting to his higher on TDs, I also think that correlates with taking an alternative line higher on Jayden Reed, who can score from any part of the field thanks to his elite speed. I talked about Reed above and with his props set so low, bumping him up this week to play for a bigger payout is one of my favorite ways to attack Underdog lineups on SNF. 

On the other side, a shootout sort of game where Love is hitting his ceiling and potentially connecting on a long score or two would also be bullish for DK Metcalf, who faces a Packers secondary without its top outside corner. Pushing Metcalf up a little and playing his alternate lines at 69.5 makes sense as a comeback play for the Reed/Love combo.

Finally, while you have to respect the workload Zach Charbonnet is likely to get in this spot, the Packers are also a top-tier rush defense (9th in EPA per rush), while Seattle is just 29th in EPA per rush on offense. Charbonnet projects to have another big day as a receiver, but our aggregate projections on Fantasy Life have him under 60 rush yards, making his lower one to target with the Metcalf higher. 

This is also a spot where you could look to throw in a Geno Smith higher on passing yards if you wanted to make it a five-way card. We have Smith projected for right around his total at 245 yards, but if we’re playing for a bigger day for Metcalf that certainly increases the chances Smith will get to his higher as well.