Like you, I spent most of Thursday passed out in a food coma or talking with family members.

It’s a holiday. Take the time and relax.

But Friday brings us right back to reality. We’ve got another 12 games on Sunday to watch. The playoffs are right around the corner. So, instead of adding more chaos to Thursday, I focused on the weekend games. After poring over the matchups, I’ve another six guys to target or make roster decisions around ahead of Week 13. 

Matchups to Target

Texans WR Nico Collins at Jaguars

Sometimes, WRs make my job easy.

Nico Collins’ return to prominence was inevitable. He had a long TD called back on a penalty the week prior. But the negated score wasn’t the indicator. Collins matched Tank Dell in targets while running a route on 55.0% of C.J. Stroud’s dropbacks. Without any news of an in-game setback, Houston’s WR1 would get a WR1 workload. And he did the following week.

Again, let’s ignore the touchdown (for now) and focus on the usage. Collins’ nine targets led the team, along with his 39.1% air yard share. Since returning, he’s been Stroud’s primary target on quick-game concepts, allowing Stroud to avoid pressure. And, of course, the two have linked up on deep shots down the field. The varying route depths cement him as a high-end receiver and part of why his aDOT sits at 10.9 yards over the last two weeks. Plus, his matchup against the Jaguars has been favorable for opposing WR1s.

  • Week 11: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 39.1 (PPR points)
  • Week 10: Justin Jefferson, 9.8
  • Week 9: DeVonta Smith, 18.7
  • Week 8: Romeo Doubs, 10.2

Collins already cooked Jacksonville for 151 yards in their first divisional meeting in Week 4. As he’s largely lined up on the left, he’ll see Jags’ CB Tyson Campbell, who has strictly played on the defensive right side. Campbell has allowed the second-highest passer rating to opposing QBs over the last month of action, along with the eighth-highest catch rate. Even with Stroud struggling under center, one part of the offense that does work is his attempts to Collins.

Titans WR Calvin Ridley at Commanders

I think we all know what we’re getting into by rostering a pass-catcher attached to Will Levis. Sometimes, it ends comedically (derogatory). Other times, it works out well.

Calvin Ridley has been Levis’ go-to target since DeAndre Hopkins departed from Tennessee. But it’s not just about the volume bump for Ridley. 

Per our Utilization Report game logs, Ridley’s UR Score of 8.6 since Week 8 puts him in the WR1 conversation. However, two other things stick out. First, he hasn’t seen less than 20.0% of the looks over the five-game sample. Also, his aDOT has fallen. Admittedly, going from 18.4 yards per target to 15.3 doesn’t instill a ton of confidence. For reference, Rashod Bateman has a 15.4-yard aDOT. However, if Levis is targeting Ridley more often and setting up explosives, there’s a direct path to the top 12 in Week 13.

Despite the Commanders’ improvements up front, their secondary has been susceptible to perimeter receivers. They’re tied for the second-most touchdowns surrendered on deep attempts. CB Benjamin St-Juste has the seventh-worst PFF coverage grade over the last four games. Levis alone adds enough volatility to make anyone waiver on relying on him for fantasy purposes. However, in this matchup, Ridley’s downfield usage makes him a ceiling play for Week 13.

Sneaky Matchups

Broncos WR Devaughn Vele vs. Browns

Trusting anyone outside of Courtland Sutton in Denver feels like a risky proposition.

Denver’s backfield rotates RBs on a week-to-week basis. Lil’Jordan Humphrey keeps mixing in for looks. The offense lacks consistency outside of Bo Nix creating with his legs and Sutton Moss’ing defenders. But let me make the case for Devaughn Vele.

One point is his steady integration into the offense. His target share has ticked up each week over his last five games. Alas, check out his aDOT. Nix is more of a conservative passer, primarily working the short area of the field. Vele’s 8.7-yard aDOT fits his QB’s style. Also, going up against the Browns isn’t as bad as you’d think.

Cleveland CB Greg Newsome splits his time between the perimeter and the slot. Since Week 9 (three-game sample), 52 of his 85 coverage snaps have been on the interior. In that same span, he’s given up the ninth-most yards per snap, plus a score. While a touchdown is tough to project, the opportunities and defensive matchup allow for Vele to continue his ascension as another trusty target for Nix in his rookie campaign.

Buccaneers WR Sterling Shepard at Panthers

Mike Evans being back on the field gives the Bucs’ passing game more firepower. Actually, all they needed was Bucky Irving. But still, Baker Mayfield has a legitimate downfield threat. Plus, the offense is shifting back to its original form.

Without Evans (or Chris Godwin) healthy, Mayfield targeted his TEs and RBs on 56.4% of his attempts. In Week 12, their collective share dropped to 40.0%. And as Evans commands more defensive attention, a guy like Sterling Shepard becomes a FLEX option.

The veteran WR slid in for 23.0% of the looks in his revenge game against the Giants. More importantly, he’s in the slot on 68.8% of his routes. Carolina interior CB Dane Jackson has given up the ninth-most yardage over his last four games and allowed the 10th-highest passer rating when targeted. If you’re looking for a low-rostered option to get you through the week, Mayfield’s WR2 has the opportunity and environment to lift your squad.

Matchups to Avoid

Blanket statement for both of the guys below: “Avoid” doesn’t mean sit.

Maybe I need a different label for this section, but it’s Week 13. Anyway, this section is more about lowering expectations, given the defensive environment. The reaction should be to examine the other parts of your roster for upside. Either can hit their top-end projection on a play, but if their floor becomes a reality, the rest of your starters will have to make up the difference.

Bills WR Khalil Shakir vs. 49ers

Before I get negative, superlatives first.

Amari Cooper has been active for three games since his trade to Buffalo. In each of those games, Khalil Shakir has run more routes and earned more targets. Plus, as he’s played 75.8% of his snaps from the slot, Shakir has become Josh Allen’s preferred target in obvious passing situations or if pressured. However, like his slot brethren before him, he draws a tough matchup for Week 13.

  • Week 12: Jayden Reed, 2-13-0
  • Week 11: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 8-58-0
  • Week 8: CeeDee Lamb, 8-87-0
  • Week 7: Xavier Worthy, 1-5-0

San Francisco slot CB Deommodore Lenoir has hampered the production of some notable pass-catchers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and CeeDee Lamb needed eight targets to bump up their yardage totals. Otherwise, Lenoir has shut the others down. With Keon Coleman (potentially) returning and Cooper available, the gap between Shakir and the rest of Buffalo’s receivers may shrink, making him more of a floor play for Week 13.

Ravens WR Zay Flowers vs. Eagles

Again, I’ll stay positive and highlight why Zay Flowers should still be in your starting lineup.

Flowers has elevated his game in his second year. After ending his rookie campaign toward the back-end of usage and efficiency metrics among all WRs with a 20.0% target share, Flowers has excelled in an offense geared toward featuring the running prowess of a two-time MVP (with a third pending?) and one of the best RBs this century. Flowers’ receiving aDOT has jumped from 8.0 yards to 9.9 in his games with five or more looks, and his speed gives him the potential for a chunk gain with every catch. But the Eagles have been great at limiting big plays nearly all season.

  • Week 12: Puka Nacua, 8-55-0
  • Week 11: Terry McLaurin, 0-0-0
  • Week 10: CeeDee Lamb, 3-17-0
  • Week 9: Brian Thomas Jr., 2-22-0
  • Week 8: Ja’Marr Chase, 3-22-0

OC Todd Monken has deployed Flowers to the right side on 35.0% of his routes, which will likely pit the sophomore against CB Darius Slay. And even at 33 years of age, the vet can keep opposing WRs in check. He’s given up just 48 yards over the last four weeks. Between Slay and rookie Quinyon Mitchell, the two have locked down the perimeter without allowing a TD since Week 4. Flowers can make up most of his day on a big play or two. But Philadelphia’s secondary limits his upside for Week 13.