Matthew Freedman highlights the top quarterbacks for fantasy football in Week 15.

Week 15.

For the vast majority of fantasy football leagues, the postseason is here.

On the one hand, the pressure is greater than it has ever been. The margin for error is nonexistent. Every start/sit decision matters. Every player-vs.-defense matchup warrants analysis. Every bit of data might make the difference between victory and defeat.

On the other hand … it's just another week.

You've made it this far. Trust your process. Especially if part of that process has been reading "Freedman's Favorites" each week.

And if somehow, for whatever reason, you're not a regular reader of this piece … how are you even in the fantasy playoffs???

Oops, I mean, welcome!

Let's crush the competition.

As of Tuesday evening, here's an early look at my (preliminary) favorite Week 15 fantasy plays—the guys who (in some combination) …

  • Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
  • Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
  • Must be added if they are on waivers.
  • Possess underappreciated upside.
  • Have advantageous matchups.
  • Should be considered in daily fantasy.
  • Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
  • Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
  • Stand out in our Fantasy Life Player Prop Tool.

Some customary notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players in separate sections are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 10:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 10, and based on the consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

Freedman's Favorites: Although we publish this piece as four separate articles broken out by position, I think of it as one cohesive whole and write it as such. With that in mind, please be sure to check out the rest of my favorite Week 15 fantasy football plays in the other positional previews.

QBs for Fantasy Football Week 15

RBs for Fantasy Football Week 15

WRs for Fantasy Football Week 15

TEs for Fantasy Football Week 15

Best QBs For Fantasy Football Week 15

Lamar Jackson (Ravens) at Giants

  • Ravens: -15
  • O/U: 43
  • TT: 29

If you have Lamar Jackson and survived the Byemaggedon of Week 14 to make the fantasy playoffs, you're obviously starting him.

Even so, I want to highlight him here because I think he's by far the No. 1 QB for fantasy this week.

The Ravens should be rested and ready off the bye, and playing on the road is no large detriment for Jackson, who has exhibited notable home/away splits relative to market expectations throughout his career (per Action Network).

  • Jackson on Road: 29-17 ATS, 22.8% ROI | 32-14 ML, 18.8% ROI
  • Jackson at Home: 21-27 ATS, -14.9% ROI | 35-14 ML, 0.3% ROI

While Jackson is unlikely to win MVP this year—he's a distant No. 3 in the market at +1400—he's actually having a better season now than he had last year when he won the award (per RBs Don't Matter). 

  • 2024: 9.9 AY/A (No. 1) | 0.172 EPA + CPOE (No. 3) 
  • 2023: 8.4 AY/A (No. 3) | 0.119 EPA + CPOE (No. 8) 

Bottom line: He's good—and playing perhaps the best football of his career.

And then there's the matchup: The Giants are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA (19.7%, per FTN).

On top of that, they're massively injured on defense. On the line, they are without EDGE Azeez Ojulari (toe, IR) and DTs Dexter Lawrence (elbow, IR), D.J. Davidson (shoulder, IR), and Armon Watts (shoulder, IR), and they also might be without DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches.

In the middle of their defense, they could be missing No. 1 LB Bobby Okereke (back).

And in the secondary they could be down two starters in CBs Deonte Banks (rib) and AnDru Phillips (shoulder), both of whom missed last week.

Jackson might not be the consensus No. 1 QB this week given that we have all 32 teams playing … but he maybe should be.

I bet Ravens -13 (-110, DraftKings) in the lookahead market (logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker) and now have them projected as -15 favorites in our Fantasy Life Game Models.

With a week-high implied team total (29), Jackson and the Ravens should dominate.

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Cooper Rush (Cowboys) at Panthers

  • Cowboys: +2.5
  • O/U: 42.5
  • TT: 20

As the great Dumbledore once said, I believe near the end of Half-Blood Prince, "Scared money don't make money."

Maybe I'm getting my cultural references confused, but still—those are wise words.

I acknowledge that Cooper Rush is probably not good. He deserves to be a backup. I'm not saying he should be a legitimate NFL starter.

But in his 11 career games as a starting injury fill-in, he has markedly exceeded expectations.

  • Rush ATS: 7-4 | 21.8% ROI
  • Rush ML: 7-4 | 82.7% ROI

Over the past month, Rush has been livable with 979 yards and 6 TDs passing to 2 INTs in four games.

Rush is probably good enough to produce when presented with an advantageous matchup, and that's what he has with the Panthers, who are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.165). 

Let's say you're in the consolation bracket of a superflex/2QB league. You got there the old-fashioned way—with a bad and/or underperforming roster.

But you have Rush on your team, and you're deciding between him and another low-level QB who might not be in the NFL in two years.

I'd probably go with Rush.

The Dropback

Brock Purdy (49ers -2.5, TT: 26) vs. Rams: Purdy (shoulder) missed Week 12 and struggled through Week 13, but last week—with three full practices—he bounced back with an emphatic 325-yard, 2-TD passing performance. The Rams are No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.162), and HC Kyle Shanahan is 10-6 ATS (19.0% ROI) and 10-6 ML (26.8% ROI) against Rams HC Sean McVay. 

Justin Herbert (Chargers -3, TT: 24.25) vs. Buccaneers: Herbert has had good passing efficiency (8.6 AY/A) and sufficient running production (40-200-2 rushing) since the Week 5 bye. The Buccaneers are No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+5.3).

Bryce Young (Panthers -2.5, TT: 22.5) vs. Cowboys: Relative to backup Andy Dalton, Young is -1.9 points against the spread (per our Fantasy Life QB ATS Value Chart), but I've been encouraged by what I've seen from him in six games since returning to the starting lineup in Week 8 (6.1 AY/A, 22-111-1 rushing), and his numbers would be even better if not for WR Xavier Legette dropping a wide-open 32-yard TD in the final minute last week. (Sheesh.) The Cowboys are No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+4.9).

Desmond Ridder (Raiders +5, TT: 19.5) vs. Falcons: "If you prick us do we not bleed? If you tickle us do we not laugh? If you poison us do we not die? And if you wrong us shall we not revenge?" QB Aidan O'Connell (knee) exited Week 14 with an injury, and although there's optimism that he'll be able to return before the season's end, I'm pessimistic that he'll suit up this week. With career marks of 6.5 AY/A and 13.5 rushing yards per game, Ridder might not be the worst backup starting this week, and he should be extra motivated in his #RevengeGame against the Falcons, who are No. 28 in defensive dropback EPA (0.142). 

Abbreviations

  • Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Team Total (TT)
  • Moneyline (ML)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
  • Short Down and Distance (SDD)
  • Long Down and Distance (LDD)
  • Dropback Over Expected (DBOE)