In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM:
After struggling to field a competent starting lineup last week with six teams on bye, the ride is smoother this week with no teams on byes. In deeper formats or teams struggling due to injuries, it still may be a challenge. Here are some streamers to consider in Week 13. You can also use our Start/Sit tool to assist in decisions.
QUARTERBACK
Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh Steelers)
It’s not an ideal week to stream a quarterback and most teams should have a good option at the position. Those with Brock Purdy might still be seeking an option and Wilson could be it. After a good start, Wilson has 1 touchdown pass in the last two games. He passed for 270 yards last week in the snow. The matchup is better this week against the Bengals, who allow the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
RUNNING BACK
Gus Edwards (Los Angeles Chargers)
It’s all about opportunity for Edwards. J.K. Dobbins is out with a knee injury and Edwards will get the bulk of the touches in the backfield. Edwards isn’t used in the passing game often and isn’t explosive. He needs a touchdown to have a good day, but he will get goal-line carries in a good offense. The Falcons rank in the middle of the pack against the run. Those in deeper leagues without running back depth can consider Edwards.
WIDE RECEIVER
Adonai Mitchell (Indianapolis Colts)
Mitchell gets separation as well as any receiver. He has big-play potential and has produced when given the chance. Josh Downs has been ruled out with a shoulder injury and Alec Pierce didn’t practice on Thursday or Friday with a foot injury. Michael Pittman will likely see a lot of Christian Gonzalez. The Patriots have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to wide receivers.
TIGHT END
Zach Ertz (Washington Commanders)
Ertz has been getting the targets the last few weeks. In the last three games, Ertz has 23 targets. He has at least 7 points in PPR formats in three straight games and has scored a touchdown in two consecutive games.
If you need more streamers to consider, remember to check out our start/sit tool to compare options and double down to see how our expert rankers view fringe options this week.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Week 13 DFS Picks: A healthy offense … at last.
- Watercooler: THE WR1 on the Week 13 slate?
Matthew did it again ...
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Stack The Rams and Compliment with Colts Value Pieces
by James McCool
The Week 13 Sunday slate is around the corner, and, as always, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.
I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 13 NFL DFS picks, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades.
Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here too.
Top Stack - Los Angeles Rams
While the Rams don’t have the #1 overall median here, they do have a very close second place. Importantly, they do so while being $1,400 cheaper than the CIN stack at the top of the Paydirt DFS model, along with similar baselines for the receivers involved.
Over the last four weeks, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are combining for 56% of the targets, 56% of the air yards, and 47% of the endzone targets for the Rams. They are averaging 21.3 and 16.7 PPR points, respectively, and hold Utilization Scores of 8.9 and 7.8 in that sample.
Likewise, at the team level, the Rams are passing more since getting their star duo back. On the season their DBOE is -2%, meaning they are passing less than they should, but over the last four games they sit at +1% and have games of +4 and +5%.
With the team trending toward more passing and the option to utilize both of their pass-catching options in the QB+2, the Rams are one of the best stacks on the slate.
Top Value Plays
Anthony Richardson | QB | IND
We got a nice little price drop for Anthony Richardson after he scored just 12 PPR points last week. Over the last two games since he returned as the starter, we have seen Richardson be much more efficient. His completion percentage in those games is 53% vs. 47% for the season and his yards per attempt have seen a slight bump. On top of that, he continues to have an incredible rush attempt rate at 33% in the sample (only 16% season-long) which gives him a terrific floor for a QB.
Granted, it’s a short sample, but we should be on the lookout for increases like this. I love Richardson as a cheap GPP option paired with …
Adonai Mitchell | WR | IND
While Mitchell isn’t going to be low-owned, he’s an incredible play regardless. A lot of the time when a top WR goes down it’s kind of hard to figure out who steps up, but Mitchell is a legit star in the making. Of all WRs to run 100 routes or more this year, Adonai Mitchell ranks 6th in TPRR just behind Nico Collins. He has an aDOT of 14.2 and 16% of the endzone targets for the Colts despite running just 37% of the routes.
There’s an argument to be made that he should be able to just step right into Josh Downs’ shoes here. He’s at least $1,500 underpriced and should be a priority in all fields.
More Value Plays and Low-Owned Gems
RELATED CONTENT:
- Chris Allen and Jorge Martin get you up to speed on the Week 13 injury report.
- Geoff Ulrich highlights the top five player props for Week 13.
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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:
🔥 Nico Collins … THE WR1? WR/CB matchups to target for Week 13.
👀 Picking every single winner on the Week 13 Sunday slate … aiming for perfection.
📈 George Pickens is ascending … but will it last beyond Russell Wilson this year?
🦅🦅 This guy must be lost … but we respect his dedication.
🚀 Jayden Daniels is set for takeoff. Week 13’s five best player props.
👨💻 College Football today as an appetizer for tomorrow. Player props for today’s slate.
🤝 Focusing on just the NFL this weekend instead? We have you covered, too.