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#118 The Super Bowl Is Set

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I guess in retrospect Tom Brady pulling off the upset while Josh Allen flopped seems fairly obvious. 


And yet heading into yesterday’s games, the Bucs were still a team with flaws; a team who got clobbered by the Saints 38-3 back in November. And the Bills? Well, the Bills were the darlings of the NFL. Red-hot, they passed at an insane rate above expectation, and called aggressive plays in almost every situation.


Things reverted back to the historical norm yesterday, however. Brady made the throws he needed vs. the Packers defense, while Allen and Sean McDermott played a game littered with mistakes. 


One common theme across both games: extremely questionable field goal decisions. In Green Bay, Matt LaFleur kicked a field goal from the eight-yard line, down eight with two minutes, three timeouts left, and one of the best QBs in football. Why? 


In Kansas City, Sean McDermott said “hold my beer!” and kicked, not one, but two field goals while trailing on the road against the best offense in football. 


It’s pretty mind boggling that these suboptimal decisions continue to happen in a league where the math is incredibly clear and resources are abundant. It’s especially discouraging to see McDermott turn into a pumpkin after a year of playing hyper-aggressive, optimal football. 


Now we wait two weeks for a Chiefs-Buccaneers Super Bowl. The Chiefs edged the Bucs 27-24 back in November. That was the game where Tyreek Hill put up 269 yards and 3 TDs, most of which came in a single half. Despite the game being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, the Chiefs have opened as -3.5 point “road” favorites.


Loose ends. Hard to dethrone the Bernie memes these days, but this one might have done it...Enjoyed Dan Pizzuta’s breakdown of Conference Championship weekend on Sharp Football.

 

- Peter Overzet

january_2021

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