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#148 I’m Starting To Get Worried About Saquon Barkley

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This is the time of the year when I start to come to grips with the players who are going to be a thorn in my side after drafting their younger, more exciting teammates all offseason.

Today’s edition: Adam Humphries

We all like Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin. Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas are solid mid-round selections. Rookie WR Dyami Brown has been a favorite sleeper of mine. Even J.D. McKissic is an attractive late-round PPR play. But here comes the cold water from J.P. Finlay, who projects Humphries for somewhere around 60 targets.

This isn’t an emergency broadcast warning to start drafting Humphries. I’d say it’s more of a gentle PSA to remember that our favorite rookie fliers aren’t going to just waltz into 100 target seasons and that incumbents like Thomas and McKissic could see their targets significantly drop with a new teammate working in the same spots of the field.

I can’t believe I just opened up a newsletter talking about Adam Humphries. I almost put him in the subject line, but not sure Matthew would appreciate that anti-click bait strategy. 

📰 Fantasy News for the true sickos.

* We continue to hear dicey things about Saquon Barkley’s health. He dodged multiple questions about when he might be ready to play on Rich Eisen’s show yesterday and also declined to say if he’d enter camp on the PUP list. Barkley is the epitome of a high risk/high reward pick right now and I don’t blame anyone for passing on him in the first 9-10 picks of drafts. 

* An unspecified injury limited Darrell Henderson in the Rams’ offseason program, says ESPN’s Lindsey Thiry. Henderson is one of the best handcuff picks in drafts right now with Malcolm Brown out of town, so we’ll keep tabs on this. 

* Apparently today’s news roundup has an “injured RBs” theme. Tarik Cohen (knee) didn’t participate in June minicamp and looked a “bit stuff” walking around with his right leg wrapped, per Mark Grote of WSCR Radio. Damien Williams is becoming pretty interesting imo. 

* Benny Snell isn’t assured a spot on the Steelers’ roster according to Brooke Pryor of ESPN. There hasn’t been much discussion on the Steelers backfield beyond Najee Harris, but this would imply that Kalen Ballage, Jaylen Samuels, and Anthony McFarland are fighting for the #2 spot. 

📊 Stat of the Day

Check out this Rotoviz graph that Mike Beers shared of Christian McCaffery’s production over three seasons, multiple head coaches, and multiple QBs. Unreal production when he’s on the field.

You can find more great data viz like this at Rotoviz, part of the Rotopass network. Rotopass includes a bundle of great fantasy sites for less than $80. Get a jump on your leaguemates with a sub today.

Because it’s Friday, how about a bonus stat? Here’s Mike Clay’s spicy projections for the Cowboys offense. Three 1,000 yard WRs is firmly in play and Michael Gallup represents an extreme value in drafts right now if he hits Clay’s projection. 


📚 The Fantasy Articles You Must Read

Don’t Draft An Early Round RB Without Legendary Upside by Pat Kerrane. “Running back upside is real and, to a degree, worth chasing. But don't forget the fact that you are walking through a minefield in search of it. The RB dead zone doesn't start in round three--it starts the instant your fantasy draft begins. We only start noticing the dead zone in round three because the running backs who deliver legendary seasons have already been selected by that point.”

I drafted a Randomizer team with 2x NBA champion Shane Battier last night. We hashed it out about Zero RB at the top of the show.


🐦 Tweet of the day.

 A hilarious observation via Twitter user @IMGregURNot about how championships follow Tom Brady around geographically. Before you place any futures bets, correlation doesn’t equal causation. 


Have a great weekend, everyone. 

Peter Overzet


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