There’s two main things I’m trying to accomplish when I draft my fantasy teams:
- Construct teams with logical structures. If I take RBs early, I’m loading up on WRs late to make up for the lack of pass catching fire power. If I load up on WRs early then I’m going to be taking lots of stabs on late round RBs. I don’t think there is any wrong way to start your draft, only wrong ways to screw it up in the mid- and late-rounds because you aren’t properly allocating your draft capital.
- Draft players who you expect to be drafted earlier in next year’s draft. This is a more descriptive way of saying draft players with “upside” but I think it’s more actionable. Can you really imagine Mike Davis being a 2nd round pick in 2022? I can’t, but he’ll likely need that type of performance this year to justify his current draft cost. This is what leads me to targeting talented players in ambiguous situations. We want to be identifying the next Justin Jefferson and Tee Higgins, who go from being late round picks to early round selections the following year. We can survive small misses with just one or two big hits.
Tip 1 takes lots of drafting reps to master—no draft room is the same—but luckily Shawn Siegele is doing the leg work for us on Tip 2. He just posted his predictions for the first round of 2022 fantasy football drafts and how to use those projections to draft for upside.
Considering I would easily pay $100/year just to read all of Shawn’s work at Rotoviz, it’s crazy that you can access to Rotoviz, along with Sharp Football Analysis, ESPN+, Footballguys, Rosterwatch, and Rotowire for less than $80 via Rotopass.com. Don’t just take my word for it..
📰 Fantasy News for the true sickos.
* Despite the early offseason reports that Saquon Barkley might be limited to start the season, NJ Advance Media's Zack Rosenblatt reported that Barkley is expected to start practicing this week and should come off the Giants’ PUP list soon.
* Ravens reporter Jonas Shaffer believes Gus Edwards is the preferred 3rd down and goal line back and said he wouldn’t be surprised if he leads the team in rushing TDs. I definitely buy the latter part of that speculation, but not the pass catching part. JK Dobbins out-targeted Edwards 24 to 14 from Week 8 on last year (h/t Jack Miller) and is much more dynamic in space.
* Outside of Elijah Moore, I don’t think there is a rookie WR getting more buzz than Panthers WR Terrace Marshall, who Joseph Person says has an inside track to be the No. 3 WR—a very valuable role in a condensed offense like the Panthers. “Marshall has a big catch radius and plucks the ball with his hands, rather than catching it against his body.”
* Demarcus Robinson is still probably the safer bet for the Chiefs No. 3 position, but I continue to hear Byron Pringle’s name the most. Matt McMullen’s observation from practice: “Pringle put together perhaps his best practice of camp, as the fourth-year receiver got open numerous times deep down the field and connected with quarterback Patrick Mahomes for multiple touchdowns.”
* I gave you Eno Benjamin the other day, so here’s another super deep RB sleeper for you: Lions Jermar Jefferson, who has “consistently been repping with the first and second team offenses, and he doesn’t look out of place at all” (h/t Jeremy Reisman). There isn’t much RB depth in Detroit behind D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, so Jefferson is a name worth monitoring. I took him in the last round of a 25 round draft the other night.
🚑 The Injury Ward
* Patriots TE Hunter Henry suffered a painful shoulder injury on Sunday and is set to get an MRI. It’s very unlikely that he’ll suit up for their preseason game against Washington on Thursday. Jonnu Smith stock should get a bump in light of this news.
* Bad news on Washington Football Team WR FA signing Curtis Samuel via Ron Rivera: “There's no timetable for Curtis. He's been in the system, he knows it. Yeah, you'd love for him to catch a few reps maybe in the last preseason game, but we're not going to rush him out there.” I love drafting the rookie WR Dyami Brown and veteran slot guy Adam Humphries right now.
* Per Adam Schefter, Jaguars’ WR D.J. Chark underwent surgery for a hairline fracture of his finger but head coach Urban Meyer said he still expects Chark to play Week 1 vs. the Texans. In case you were dragging your feet, it’s time to select Laviska Shenault ahead of Chark in drafts.
🐦 Tweet of the day.
Michael Thomas accidentally posted an AIM away message from 2003 on his Twitter yesterday:
Have a good Monday.