In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter, we dissect Mike Davis’ fantasy prospects , stay cautiously optimistic on Saquon Barkley, and watch Amari Cooper run routes in 720p. It's 9/3. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
There are two types of people in this world—people who love drafting Mike Davis and people who don’t.
The Falcons’ release of backup RB Qadree Ollison and subsequent signing of Wayne Gallman further highlighted this divide yesterday on Twitter:
Every move the Falcons have made this offseason would seem to indicate they fully trust Davis to carry the load as their lead RB and the volume is certainly easy to project for fantasy players.
And yet we know that we’ve seen this same movie a hundred times before.
When Cam Akers went down, Darrell Henderson rocketed up draft boards for the following month because we could project him for more carries. Then the team traded for Sony Michel and Henderson’s ADP plummeted because he projected for fewer carries. The volume we were projecting for Henderson pre-Michel was never guaranteed and was a fragile assumption.
We don’t know yet what the equivalent of the “Sony Michel trade” could be for Davis and the Falcons backfield, but we do know there are things that can and will happen over the course of a season (signings, injuries, performance) that change backfields in an instant.
If you’re constantly adjusting Davis’ value based on whatever replacement level RB is currently behind him, then the initial projection is shaky to begin with and should be a flashing warning sign to proceed with caution.
Mike Davis could crush this season—it’s within the range of outcomes. But it’s more likely that a 28 year-old journeyman running back on a team projected to win 7 games who wasn’t even drafted in fantasy leagues last year might not be the best bet to maintain a voluminous role for the entire year.
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🚑 THE INJURY WARD
* Bucs RB Gio Bernard is dealing with a mild high-ankle sprain, per Tom Pelissero’s source. The Bucs play the Cowboys a week from yesterday. Bernard is expected to be ready for the opener, but this isn’t ideal.
* One of my favorite late-round RB targets, Titans Darrynton Evans, was placed on IR. He’ll now miss at least the first three games of the regular season and the team will turn to Mekhi Sargent and Jeremy McNichols when The Big Dog needs a breather.
* This does not sound good for Giants WR Kenny Golladay from Ralph Vacchiano on sny.tv:
* Broncos TE Noah Fant didn’t practice yesterday with a leg injury, but is expected to return to practice next week. Fant has now missed over a week.
* Saquon Barkley still isn’t being regularly drafted in the first round…
📚 THE FANTASY ARTICLES YOU MUST READ
Matthew Berry's 100 facts for the 2021 fantasy football season. Here’s a taste: “Last season, the Patriots had 53 goal-to-go carries. Of those 53 carries, 49 of them went to Cam Newton, Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel and Damien Harris. Newton (free agent), Burkhead (Texans) and Michel (Rams) are no longer on the Patriots.”
🎥 GRAINY CAMP VIDEO SZN
Amari, geez. Probably the last grainy camp video of the year. This isn’t goodbye, it’s see you later…
🐦 TWEET OF THE DAY
- Pete Overzet