In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter we discuss Elijah Mitchell, share Week 2 ranks, and dive into some stats. It's 9/15. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
It was brought to my attention that this is the 200th edition of The Fantasy Life Newsletter since I started writing it last August.
I don’t have a cake, but I do come bearing a jam packed newsletter today with early Week 2 rankings from Waz, signals and noise picks from Ben Gretch, and a bunch of great stats for you to consume.
📰 FANTASY NEWS FOR THE TRUE SICKOS
* Although it was initially reported that Raheem Mostert would only miss 8 weeks, his season came to an end yesterday after he was officially placed on IR. Elijah Mitchell is the hot discussion topic of the week and I fully agree with Matthew’s take here.
* Bruce Arians said that RB Ronald Jones will start this Sunday vs. the Falcons and that he’s “ready to roll.”
* Exciting news for the Giants offense on Thursday. And by exciting, I mean, not at all:
💥 SIGNALS & NOISE
Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) writes a terrific Substack newsletter where he does a weekly deep dive into the previous week and shares his biggest signals (players who could sustain their production) and biggest noise (performances that were likely fluky). Here are some interesting observations from Week 1…
* James Robinson — 64% routes, 6 targets (looked like he was in the role we assumed Travis Etienne would play, while Carlos Hyde was in the role we assumed Robinson would)
* Jaylen Waddle — 93% routes, 22% target share, 26% air yards share (big Week 1 role with Will Fuller out)
* Mark Andrews — 81% snaps, 95% routes (big for his value since he’s strong at earning targets)
* Darrell Henderson — 94% snap share, 78% routes, 17 of 18 RB touches
* Austin Ekeler — zero targets (25 routes, 51% of dropbacks)
* Mark Ingram — 26 carries (game script, team play volume, was fourth among HOU RBs in routes)
* Stefon Diggs — 69 yards on 14 targets (saw 150 air yards, splash plays will come)
* Juwan Johnson — two touchdowns (played on passing downs more than runs, and could see his usage spike in a pass-heavier script, but ran only 38% of routes while Adam Trautman was up at 75%)
To see all of Gretch’s biggest signals and biggest noise analysis from Week 1, subscribe to his substack.
🥇WAZ'S WEEK 2 RANKS
Here are the early Week 2 .5 PPR rankings from Rob Waziak aka "Waz". Waz is a fantasy football analyst who competes in draft and season-long expert rankings competitions. He's consistently been at or near the top of all industry-wide leaderboards since 2017. He’ll be back on Saturday with an update.
A few notes from Waz on the early rankings:
* Tyrell Williams (WR69) is in the NFL’s concussion protocol and is questionable for Week 2. If Williams is unable to suit up for the Lions’ road matchup against the Packers, look for Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR72) to see an increased target share in a game where the Lions are 10.5-point underdogs.
* Jamison Crowder (WR76) is still in the NFL’s COVID-19 protocol. If he’s unable to return from it before Sunday’s home game against the Patriots, Elijah Moore (WR60) could flirt with top-48 numbers if he continues to build rapport with Zach Wilson. Moore saw four targets at Carolina last week, but only reeled in one for negative yardage.
🔢 WEDNESDAYS ARE FOR THE STATS
* Waiver Adds, Buy Lows & Usage Analysis - Week 2 Stat Chasing. Sam Hoppen uses charts and data viz to analyze all of the most interesting player usage and emerging trends from Week 1 so you can win the waiver wire.
* Strength In Numbers: Actionable Week 1 Stats by Jack Miller. “Brandon Aiyuk played 47% of snaps in Week 1 and failed to record a target. For reference, Trent Sherfield played one more snap than Aiyuk and notched three targets. Aiyuk ran 15 routes vs. 14 for Sherfield. In essence, the two players split WR2 duties, while Deebo Samuel played almost every snap and got 12 targets.”
R.I.P. Norm Macdonald. You were one of the greats.
- Pete Overzet