In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter we look at the biggest signals and noise from Week 5, drop early Week 6 ranks, and check out Cooterdoodle’s favorite tweets. It's 10/13. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
The big news that didn’t make it into yesterday’s newsletter is that the Chiefs are placing Clyde-Edwards Helaire on the injured reserve due to his knee injury. This means he’ll miss at least the next three games (WFT, TEN, & NYG).
Darrel Williams is the next man up if you’re looking for a replacement. You can watch Matthew’s take here and also read below for some of Ben Gretch’s thoughts on Williams.
We also have some fresh Week 6 rankings ready for you as well. Enjoy.
💥 SIGNALS & NOISE
Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) writes the terrific Stealing Signals newsletter where he does a weekly deep dive into the previous week and shares his biggest signals (players who could sustain their production) and biggest noise (performances that were likely fluky). Here are some of his observations from Week 5…
Myles Gaskin — 69% snaps, 12 HVT, 3 green zone touches, potential trade acquisition candidate if his frustrating recent usage makes him cheap
Kadarius Toney — 0.88 wTPRR (weighted targets per route run; third highest among player with at least 15 routes per game), adds dynamic after-the-catch ability, so early results both earning volume and being efficient after the catch are very favorable
Rondale Moore — season-high 59% routes, ran more routes than Christian Kirk, has 11 backfield snaps over past two weeks after just four in first three, made multiple more “wow” plays, going to keep demanding opportunities
Dan Arnold — routes way up in second game with Jacksonville to 79% of dropbacks, 8 targets, top TE add this week (assuming guys like Knox and Schultz are rostered)
Noah Fant — 4-3-20 receiving (routes have been trending up and reached a season-high 93% of dropbacks, love Fant as a buy right now)
Robby Anderson — 41.4% catch rate, 0.40 RACR (ratio of a player's receiving yards vs. their air yards) for the season (15.2 aDOT indicates role has changed from last year, but air yards have been solid four of five weeks)
Darrell Henderson — 66% snap share, any perception of a serious timeshare (10 of Sony Michel’s 12 touches came on one drive in the second quarter while Henderson got checked for an injury)
Darrel Williams — led Jerick McKinnon in snaps, but there are Marlon Mack rumors and KC may just deprioritize the RB while Clyde Edwards-Helaire is on IR (still worth adds, but I’m not going wild)
To see all of Gretch’s biggest signals and biggest noise analysis from Week 5, subscribe to his substack.
🥇WAZ’S .5 PPR RANKS
Here are the early Week 6 rankings from Rob Waziak aka "Waz" along with two notes on Thursday Night Football guys:
* Dallas Goedert (NR) didn’t practice on Monday due to an illness and was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Tuesday. To be removed from the list, Goedert would have to yield two negative COVID-19 tests at least 24 hours apart and be asymptomatic for 48 hours, which appears unlikely before the Eagles host the Buccaneers tomorrow night. Devonta Smith (WR17) and Zach Ertz (TE05) should benefit from a pass-heavy game script where the Eagles are 7 point underdogs and carry an implied point total of 22 points. While I’m excited to watch Jalen Hurts (QB3) under the lights, I would only consider starting Quez Watkins (WR47) or Jalen Reagor (WR49) if depth, byes, or injuries left me without better options.
* Rob Gronkowski is ruled out for Thursday Night Football, but Tom Brady (QB5) should continue to excel, leaning on Leonard Fournette (RB16), Mike Evans (WR13), Chris Godwin (WR15), and Antonio Brown (WR19). While a popular talking point, it sounds like Brady’s thumb injury shouldn’t noticeably limit him. Both Ronald Jones (RB49) and Giovani Bernard (RB50) are the bottom Top 50 options at running back this week and I wouldn’t start on either on a short week outside of desperation. The Buccaneers are 7 point road favorites with an implied point total of 29 points.
Waz is a fantasy football analyst who competes in draft and season-long expert rankings competitions. He's consistently been at or near the top of all industry-wide leaderboards since 2017. He’ll be back on Saturday with an update.
🐦 COOTERDOODLE'S FAVORITE TWEETS
- Pete Overzet