In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by SuperDraft Fantasy’s new Super 15 game, we discuss Joe Flacco and Eli Mitchell, look at the biggest signals and noise from Week 10 and drop early Week 11 ranks. It's 11/17. Take it away, Peter Overzet...***
For some reason the Jets have decided to do this:
As Matthew noted on Twitter, it’s probably not the worst thing for the pass catchers in the offense, but it makes very little sense from an organizational perspective. Why not see more of what you have in Mike White? Oh well, the Jets gonna Jets.
The other interesting fantasy news from yesterday is that 49ers RB Eli Mitchell had a finger fracture and his status is uncertain for this week’s game against Jacksonville. There seems to be some optimism, though:
Read on below for my favorite picks on SuperDraft this week, interesting nuggets on A.J. Dillon and Javonte Williams, and Waz’s early Week 11 rankings.
You know the “pick your $15 team” meme? Well, SuperDraft turned it into a game. Introducing Super 15. All you have to do is pick 5 out of 25 players with $15 in salary.
Here’s my lineup for Week 11:
* $5 - Josh Allen. I think it’s really hard to not use one of Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson in this tier. They have monster ceilings that can’t be matched by the rest of the options.
* $4 - Tyreek Hill. Because I’m going Allen instead of Mahomes, I want some exposure to the Chiefs-Cowboys game with a monster 55 point over/under. Davante Adams is also in consideration here, but I’m breaking ties in favor of the game environment.
* $3 - Stefon Diggs. One of the reasons I prefer Allen to Mahomes is because Diggs is $1 cheaper than Hill and Adams. As we saw last week, Diggs can certainly rival the ceiling of the stud WRs in the $4 tier, plus the QB-WR stack gives me valuable correlation in a tournament.
* $2 - Darren Waller. This $2 tight end tier is scary. We saw T.J. Hockenson and Mike Gesicki both put up a bagel in Week 10, but I still think Waller can separate from this group with a big volume day against the Bengals.
* $1 - Christian Kirk. It was tough deciding between Kirk and DeVonta Smith, but Smith only had 4 catches last week and the Eagles have been running the ball a ton. Kirk has been producing and should get Kyler Murray back.
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💥 Signals & Noise
Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) writes the terrific Stealing Signals newsletter where he does a weekly deep dive into the previous week and shares his biggest signals (players who could sustain their production) and biggest noise (performances that were likely fluky). Here are some of his observations from Week 10…
AJ Dillon — six green zone touches, two short touchdowns (the last piece of what should be a strong profile with Aaron Jones out; Dillon should also see a heavy rushing load and likely some receiving given his efficiency there)
Rhamondre Stevenson — all four green zone touches, basically had the Damien Harris role but also his normal routes involvement for a strong 8 HVT as the total package
Michael Gallup — looked good in return, was involved early, and his presence seemed to hurt Dalton Schultz most after Schultz had carved out a role as the No. 3 passing weapon
Kyle Pitts — 7-4-60 game despite 27 total passes and 131 passing yards, and Pitts will now need to be more of a focus for Atlanta with Cordarrelle Patterson out
Javonte Williams — season-high 57% snap share (also had a season-high route share, and both backs had 10 touches, because Williams mostly just gained snaps late in passing situations in the blowout loss; don’t think this is a turning of the tide yet, but we’ll see after the bye)
Christian McCaffrey — any concern Cam Newton will prevent him from scoring (Newton had the two short touchdowns, but McCaffrey was tackled on the 1, got stuffed on a carry from the 1, and stepped out on the 2 in this game, so it’s not like McCaffrey didn’t have shots)
Brandon Aiyuk — 4 targets (was actually a strong 21% target share given San Francisco threw just 19 passes)
T.J. Hockenson — one target, no catches (Lions threw 25 times for 114 yards, clearly still need him to be a focal point of a functional passing game)
To see all of Gretch’s biggest signals and biggest noise analysis from Week 10, subscribe to his substack.
🥇Waz’s .5 PPR Ranks
Here are the early Week 11 rankings from Rob Waziak aka "Waz" along with a couple notes on Thursday Night Football guys:
Most of the mid-week attention leading up to Thursday Night Football is on Cordarrelle Patterson’s (RB45) availability due to his high ankle sprain. He logged a limited practice yesterday, but there has been minimal news regarding his status. Patterson currently leads all 200+ carry running backs in fantasy points per snap (0.6195). It’s no surprise that Patterson is a gamechanger for NFL and fantasy football purposes, but if he’s inactive, look for a timeshare between Mike Davis (RB41) and Wayne Gallman Jr. (RB49), as well as increased looks for Kyle Pitts (TE7), Russell Gage (WR53), and Olamide Zaccheaus (WR62). If it looks like Patterson will play with no limitations, consider him a Top 35 Flex option.
Damien Harris (RB21) is still in the NFL’s concussion protocol, but managed to log a limited practice yesterday. Of the 51 running backs with at least 50 carries this season, Harris ranks 6th in red zone carries per game with 3.11, which makes him a must-start candidate in weeks where he is active. Whether or not Harris does play, I still like Rhamondre Stevenson (RB22) in a complementary role against a Falcons team that ranks 22nd in DVOA against the rush in a game where the Patriots are favored by 7 points.
Waz is a fantasy football analyst who competes in draft and season-long expert rankings competitions. He's consistently been at or near the top of all industry-wide leaderboards since 2017. He’ll be back on Saturday with an update.
- Pete Overzet