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#270 📊 Free Week 12 Fantasy Rankings

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In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter, we prepare for the Thanksgiving slate, look at the biggest signals and noise from Week 11 and drop early Week 12 ranks. It's 11/24. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

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Tomorrow is shaping up to be a wild Thanksgiving slate as far as injuries are concerned. We have major question marks on both the Saints RBs, CeeDee Lamb, Jared Goff, and Allen Robinson

Luckily, Waz has you covered below with his early Week 12 ranks and how he’s approaching the Thursday players. We’ll also be back tomorrow with a special Thanksgiving dispatch with updates before the games.

In the meantime, Matthew is feeling thankful for all of you reading and is running a 30% off sale in the Fantasy Life store for the next few days. I’m a fan of the Draft Juice design personally. In fact, I’ll be drinking plenty of draft juice over the next few days. Use code CYBER30 at checkout to unlock the sale.

 

💥 SIGNALS & NOISE

Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) writes the terrific Stealing Signals newsletter where he does a weekly deep dive into the previous week and shares his biggest signals (players who could sustain their production) and biggest noise (performances that were likely fluky). Here are some of his observations from Week 11…

Signals:

Elijah Moore — routes up to 83%, 0.31 TPRR, 0.76 wTPRR, 0.71 WOPR, just a dominant performance in terms of earning volume and also efficiency on that volume (156 total yards) that should solidify him in a full-time role the rest of the way

Rondale Moore — clearly a major part of the game plan with 11 manufactured touches, but still only ran 49% routes and had a negative aDOT, so we’re still waiting on downfield routes and targets (and may not see that this year)

Tevin Coleman — saw his role expand after Michael Carter’s injury, played same number of snaps as Ty Johnson, may be close to a 50/50 split while Carter is out with Coleman leading on early downs

Miles Sanders — ran efficiently, but only 36% routes as Boston Scott took 48%, and Sanders looked like a TRAP back with Jalen Hurts stealing green zone looks

Noise:

Deebo Samuel — two targets (has multiple paths to production, 49ers threw just 22 passes but he got 8 rushes for 79 yards and a TD even without the targets)

Joe Mixon — no targets (still ran 49% routes, backups had four targets on fewer combined routes)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire — solid showing in return, but one green zone touch was on an option play, not a more traditional RB run, and Travis Kelce got a rush on a play like that (CEH also only ran 35% routes to Darrel Williams’ 58%)

Pat Freiermuth — routes were down to 49% as Eric Ebron got more involved, but Ebron is again hurt and Freiermuth got as high as 79% with Ebron out (Freiermuth has also shown good target-earning and red zone potential)

To see all of Gretch’s biggest signals and biggest noise analysis from Week 11, subscribe to his substack

 

🥇 WAZ'S .5 PPR RANKS

Here are the early Week 12 rankings from Rob Waziak aka "Waz" along with notes on the Thursday guys:

Justin Fields’ ribs injury will keep him sidelined on the road against the Lions tomorrow meaning Andy Dalton (QB24) will get the start. Dalton completed just 47.8% of his 23 pass attempts last week, but threw for 201 yards and 2 TDs. Allen Robinson has been a DNP this week and is unlikely to play. Look for Darnell Mooney (WR22) to be heavily targeted in the passing game again. Dalton targeted Mooney 11 times last week and completed three of them for 70 yards. The Lions defense ranks 28th in DVOA against the pass.

CeeDee Lamb suffered a concussion late in the second quarter against the Chiefs last week and doesn’t appear on track to clear protocol before the home game against the Raiders tomorrow. With Amari Cooper still on the COVID-19 list, look for Michael Gallup (WR16), Dalton Schultz (TE6), and Cedrick Wilson (WR38) to fill the void against a Raiders defense that ranks 23rd  in DVOA against the pass.

Jared Goff (QB29) is still nursing an oblique strain and is considered a GTD at home against the Bears. Tim Boyle (QB31) was atrocious in his start against the Browns over Goff last week and shouldn’t be considered an upgrade if Goff were to sit again. Unless you’re desperate, I’d consider sitting all Lions players not named D’Andre Swift (RB9).

Keep a close eye on the Saints injury status report today. Alvin Kamara (RB27) and Mark Ingram (RB31) were both DNPs yesterday with knee injuries and have a legitimate chance to miss the home game against a Bills team that will be just four days removed from allowing Jonathan Taylor (RB4) 204 yards and 5 TDs. Taysom Hill (QB32) could see additional snaps at QB or RB if either Kamara or Ingram were to sit, but his zero touches last week cause concern. Tony Jones (NR) would also assume backfield duties, but I’d suggest avoiding the situation altogether.

While seeing career-highs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards against the Eagles last week, Adam Trautman suffered a knee injury in the fourth quarter and is now on IR. The Saints are 6-point underdogs, which would keep Tre’Quan Smith (WR51), Marquez Callaway (WR53), Deonte Harris (WR56), and Juwan Johnson (NR) as back-end flex considerations. 

Waz is a fantasy football analyst who competes in draft and season-long expert rankings competitions. He's consistently been at or near the top of all industry-wide leaderboards since 2017. He’ll be back on Saturday with an update.

-Pete Overzet

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