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#277 📊 Free Week 13 Fantasy Rankings

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In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Monkey Knife Fight, we look at the biggest signals and noise takeaways from Week 12 and drop early Week 13 ranks. It's 12/1. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
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We made it to December, but not without losing some running backs along the way:

 We’ll have all offseason to debate the merits of Zero RB, but for now it’s hard not to marvel at what a minefield early round RB picks have been.

The 2021 fantasy football season will ultimately go down as a war of attrition. Keep stocking up on provisions (we have some ideas below), there’s still five weeks to go until we crown the victors.

Is it deja vu? Nope. It’s just a deal so nice they had to run it twice.

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💥 SIGNALS & NOISE

Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) writes the terrific Stealing Signals newsletter where he does a weekly deep dive into the previous week and shares his biggest signals (players who could sustain their production) and biggest noise (performances that were likely fluky). Here are some of his observations from Week 12…

Signals:

Elijah Mitchell — 7 high value touches (HVT) was a season high, and the receiving work especially would give him a previously untapped ceiling, while Deebo Samuel’s injury may open up some rushing scores

Jamaal Williams — 63% snaps, 54% routes, 5 HVT, got six green touches in first four games so should be a HVT-friendly spot start

Elijah Moore — 96% routes, 33% target share, 0.85 WOPR (continuing his upward trajectory)

Cole Kmet — 86% routes, 11 targets, does have Jimmy Graham as a red zone nuisance but Graham ran just 9% routes

Noise:

Aaron Jones — 49% snaps, no catches (wasn’t fully healthy, and notably did run more routes than AJ Dillon, so even if Dillon takes a few extra carries after the bye, it seems clear Jones will maintain the receiving edge)

Tevin Coleman — 18 touches (looks better than it is since he was a TRAP back with limited routes and zero of three RB green zone touches, while the Jets had just 5 Team HVT with Zach Wilson back under center)

Rashod Bateman — 56% routes (10 percentage points below his previous season low, but he was the clear third target behind Brown and Andrews, and I do think this will be the low point for the routes)

George Kittle — 2 targets (will likely be needed for a bigger playmaking role with Samuel out, as will Brandon Aiyuk)

To see all of Gretch’s biggest signals and biggest noise analysis from Week 12, subscribe to his substack

 

🥇WAZ'S .5 PPR RANKS

Here are the early Week 13 rankings from Rob Waziak aka "Waz" along with notes on the Thursday guys:

Amari Cooper (WR30) didn’t practice Monday or Tuesday and is still on the COVID-19 list. He cleared the 10-day protocol after missing two games but is still dealing with symptoms. Despite Jerry Jones stating that the team is “fully expecting” Cooper to suit up tomorrow, there is a legitimate concern that he could sit. If he’s active, start him, but be prepared for a smaller role than usual. CeeDee Lamb (WR7), after clearing the concussion protocol, has been a full participant in practice this week and is expected to start.

After Trevor Siemian (QB28) struggled in his four starts, notably the last two, the Saints will be starting Taysom Hill (QB14) at quarterback tomorrow. While Hill won’t be relied on to throw as often as Siemian, the Saints wide receivers could see a bit more relaxed coverage if he finds consistent success using his legs. Hill will also have the support of both Alvin Kamara (RB14) and Mark Ingram II (RB40) and if the passing game can open up, the three of them should prevail against a Cowboys rush defense that ranks 18th in DVOA.

Waz is a fantasy football analyst who competes in draft and season-long expert rankings competitions. He's consistently been at or near the top of all industry-wide leaderboards since 2017. He’ll be back on Saturday with an update.

 

🐦 COOTERDOODLE'S FAVORITE TWEETS

-PETE OVERZET 

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