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#56 🧀 Which Green Bay RB Will Start On Thursday?

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Last night’s election betting markets looked like D.K. Metcalf chasing down Budda Baker or Daniel Jones tripping in the open field on his way to the endzone. Huge swings, massive overreactions, and even bigger corrections. At least in fantasy we generally know the results of our contests shortly after they end. In this case, we now brace ourselves for some stat corrections over the coming hours, days...weeks?

Will Fuller Was Nearly Traded? The Texans and Packers were apparently in discussions, but failed to reach a trade agreement for Fuller before Tuesday’s 4pm ET deadline...One of the few trades that did go down yesterday was the Patriots acquiring WR Isaiah Ford from the Dolphins in exchange for a conditional 2022 sixth-round pick. No team in the league is more willing to let other people scout and develop WRs for them than the Patriots...There were rumors that Chris Herndon might get moved, but the Jets elected to let his talent squander away, trapped inside their walls. 

Who Is Green Bay’s Starting RB On Thursday? Aaron Jones (calf) will be a game-time decision vs. the 49ers after practicing in a limited fashion at the team’s Tuesday walk-through. “We’ll see come game time if Aaron can go or not,” said Matt LaFleur. Jamaal Williams won’t play Thursday after being considered a high-risk close contact of AJ Dillon, who tested positive for COVID-19. It’s worth picking up Tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams, who could be the only bodies remaining in the backfield. Of the two, Williams profiles more like the type of back who would see a large workload. 

Myles Gaskin Out For 3 Weeks. Gaskin is expected to miss the Dolphins’ next three games due to a sprained MCL, a big blow for one of the many Zero RB studs who emerged this season. The team promptly traded for DeAndre Washington, who was camping out on the Chiefs practice squad, for more depth in their backfield. In light of this, Matt Breida is now a top add on waivers.

Do We Trust George Kittle Or The Doctors? Kittle (foot) is being placed on injured reserve. The team is saying it will be 8 weeks, but Kittle (jokingly?) is saying it will be more like 2. Kittle is so superhuman that even a joke like that makes you wonder if he could be back before the season ends, but most medical professionals say this is likely a season-ender. 


Wednesdays Are For The Stats

As usual, I like to get into the weeds with the stats on Wednesdays to get prepared for the upcoming week. You can access many of the sites linked below via a Rotopass sub, which includes Rotoviz, Sharp Football, ESPN+, RosterWatch, Rotowire, and Footballguys. 

Jerry Jeudy had 10 targets last week and an important role change that Rich Hribar describes in his Week 9 worksheet on Sharp Football. After playing in the slot 75% of the time in Weeks 1-7, Jeudy played primarily outside while racking up a bunch of air yards. “Atlanta has struggled against opposing wideouts, allowing 10.2 yards per target (31st) and a league-high 39 receptions of 20 or more yards.” Rich’s Seahawks-Bills write-up is not behind the paywall if you want to sample his work for free. 

Stefon Diggs is the overall WR1 in expected fantasy points. He leads all WRs in targets and trails only DeAndre Hopkins in receptions and yards. On Rotoviz, Blair Andrews discussed Diggs’ big year in relation to research that has shown WRs who change teams generally underperform. 

Mecole Hardman ran routes on 66% of Kansas City dropbacks on Sunday, the second highest of all Chiefs WRs. Pat Kerrane breaks down what this means going forward and all of the other interesting stat trends from Week 8 in the latest edition of Stat Chasing

Is A.J. Brown the No. 1 receiver in Tennessee, or might it be Corey Davis? Perhaps the answer is both. Check out the targets, routes, and snaps from Week 8 on Rotowire. 

Zack Moss out-touched Devin Dingletary 3-0 inside the five-yard line, more or less solidifying his role as the goal-line back in this offense. Jack Miller points out that the rookie also played 54% of the snaps vs. 47% for Singletary: “Moss is the more valuable RB in Buffalo moving forward.”

Injury roundup. Allen Lazard (core) is close to returning...Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) is being placed on IR...Deebo Samuel (hamstring) and Tevin Coleman (knee) won’t play Thursday vs. the Packers...Antonio Brown is expected to have a limited role off the bat...The Cowboys will be without Andy Dalton, not because of the concussion, but because Dalton was placed on the reserve/COVID 19 list...The Bears released veteran WR Ted Ginn. 

 

 

- Pete Overzet

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