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#91 ☃️ DHember Has Arrived

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Today is a slow day where we need to work up an appetite for the rest of the week. We get the Chargers-Raiders amuse-bouche tomorrow, then a double-header appetizer on Saturday (Bills-Broncos, Panthers-Packers), and finally the 12 game main dish on Sunday. 

We’ll have plenty more relevant injury news after today’s practices, so for now let’s dive into the most interesting stats from Week 14 that can help us win in Week 15…

  • Brandon Aiyuk has seen an absurd 49 targets over his last four games, including at least nine in each one. Over at Rotoviz, Jack Miller looks at his breakout rookie campaign, along with another rookie breakout, Cam Akers
  • Not only does Travis Kelce lead the entire league in receiving yards, he also leads all players with 21 receptions of 20 or more yards. The next closest tight end (Robert Tonyan) has nine. Rich Hribar has all the stats you need to know in his Week 15 worksheet. The Chiefs/Saints breakdown is in front of the paywall, btw.
  • One more bonus stat from Reebs: “The Bengals have scored a touchdown on 5-of-55 offensive possessions since their Week 9 bye.”
  • DHember has arrived. Derrick Henry had 19 points over expectation, which represents insane efficiency. The only other RBs who have done that this year are Dalvin Cook (x2), Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, and Jeff Wilson Jr. Pat Kerrane breaks down Henry’s massive day, along with all of the other most relevant stats from Week 14. 
  • Keelan Cole was top 5 in air yards and targets in Week 15. You can see the other leaders at Rotowire in their Hidden Stat Line series. 
  • Via Mike Clay’s WR/CB matchups piece: “Carolina has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past eight weeks and the fourth most during the past month.” I may have to rethink my distaste for T.Y. Hilton
  • My buddy Ben Gretch does an incredible newsletter called “Stealing Signals” where he breaks down each game on a granular level and helps decipher what stats show signal (stuff we can trust going forward) and which are noisy (things we shouldn’t expect to continue). Gretch loves Jonathan Taylor and has been enjoying his recent breakout: “This is now three straight games over 110 total yards where he’s averaged 138 per game on 21.3 touches. He’s now over 1,000 total yards for the season at 4.5 yards per carry and 9.2 yards per reception, with seven touchdowns to one fumble on 199 touches.”

Injury rundown. The Bills designated John Brown (ankle) to return from injured reserve Tuesday...Washington is "optimistic" Alex Smith (calf) will suit up Sunday against the Seahawks...Josh Jacobs (ankle) was limited at Tuesday's practice...The Raiders placed Henry Ruggs on the reserve/COVID-19 list Wednesday, ruling him out for Thursday's game against the Chargers...Melvin Gordon (shoulder) was listed as a non-participant on Tuesday's practice estimate...Coach Matt Rhule doesn't expect Christian McCaffrey (quadriceps) to return for Saturday's game at Green Bay...Matthew Stafford has been diagnosed with a rib cartilage injury, which leaves his status cloudy for Sunday's game at Tennessee...Coach Mike Tomlin said Tuesday that Conner is dealing with a quadriceps injury...DeVante Parker suffered a slight hamstring strain during and his status for Sunday's game against the Patriots is TBD.


- Peter Overzet


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