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Newsletter 306 The 2021 Fantasy All Star Team

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In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Monkey Knife Fight, we recap pick our fantasy all star team for 2021 and check out Kevin’s data barrage. It's 12/31. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

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It’s the last newsletter of 2021 and the final week of the fantasy season for most managers, so how about we put together our 2021 Fantasy All Star Team?

I’m factoring in both draft cost, overall production, and consistency for my ballot…

QB: Tom Brady

RB: Jonathan Taylor

RB: Leonard Fournette

WR: Cooper Kupp

WR: Deebo Samuel

TE: Mark Andrews

Flex: Cordarelle Patterson

Brady is currently QB3 on the year and was routinely available in the double digit rounds of drafts…Nothing else needs to be said about Kupp and Taylor’s monster years…Fournette is the only Top 5 RB on the year who was available outside of the top 100 picks…Take a look at teams in the finals this week, a large majority of  them have Deebo...Andrews’ production was a little shaky early on, but this recent string of three 28+ point games has cemented him as the most dominant player in the fantasy playoffs…Patterson has cooled off recently, but his cost-adjusted production this year was incredible. 

Who did I leave out? Feel free to share yours with us on Twitter (@MBFantasyLife).

If you’re going through withdrawals with no Thursday Night Football, check out one of Monkey Knife Fight’s College Football Playoff contests involving the #1 Alabama Crimson Tide and #4 Cincinnati Bearcats, who square off today at 3:30pm ET.

Here’s one for you in which you pick MORE or LESS on the passing yards of the two QBs:

‘Bama’s Heisman winner, Bryce Young, is rolling (pun intended) into this matchup averaging 432 yards over his last three games. His projection on Monkey Knife Fight sits at 320.5 passing yards. 

 Desmond Ridder and the underdog Cincinnati Bearcats might be chasing Alabama in this game, and Monkey Knife Fight has his projection at 238.5 passing yards, a number he has exceeded in 4 of his last 5 outings.

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 *Free game for new users only. First deposit match in MKF Dollars. See site for details. 

 

📈 KEVIN'S DATA BARRAGE 

 

Kevin Tompkins, a fantasy football writer and podcaster, shares the most interesting nuggets from his Data Barrage series. Take it away, Kevin…

Brandin Cooks, HOU - Cooks did not play last week due to COVID, but is lined up to smash against the San Francisco pass-funnel. Surprisingly, Davis Mills has been pretty decent over his last three starts against Seattle, Jacksonville, and the LA Chargers. Cooks’ previous two games have resulted in WR3 and WR13 finishes, and he’s dominating the target share for Houston with the seventh-highest target share in the NFL this season at 28%. Start with confidence.

David Montgomery, CHI - Since Montgomery came off of IR and Chicago had their Week 10 bye, he’s been a workhorse, amassing 20 or more opportunities (targets and carries) in four of six contests. Monty has put up a 16% target share, 59% routes run, and leads the team in receptions over the last six weeks. He doesn’t have a 100-yard game to his credit, but he’s a lock-button play against a Giants team in the bottom half of NFL defenses against RBs.

Jaylen Waddle, MIA - Waddle has been fantastic over the second half of the season. He’s been a target-dominant player over his last four games, averaging more than ten targets per game (33% target share), a 9-96 receiving line, and 23.1 fantasy points per game. He’s also averaging an absurd 3.18 yards per route run and 32% targets per route run. He is a must-start option this week vs. the Titans, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.

Marquise Brown, BAL - Over the last two weeks, Brown’s role has taken a dramatic shift from an 11.3 yard average depth of target (aDOT) to an aDOT of 6.1 yards. If you’re looking for those boom games from Brown, you’re not going to get them unless we see his aDOT expand. Brown has been the second target for Baltimore and has earned targets, but hasn’t totaled over 55 receiving yards since Week 9 and hasn’t scored since Week 7. And now he likely has Jalen Ramsey on the opposite side of him with a banged-up Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley at QB? No thanks. 

Mike Gesicki, MIA - Gesicki is still riding high on paper from his opening seven-week stretch in which he was targeted 19% of the time and was the TE3 in overall fantasy points. Since Week 8, Gesicki hasn’t lost any work retaining a 19% target share, but his overall efficiency has dropped. TE23 in fantasy points per game from Week 8 on, Gesicki has scored only once and has ceded a majority of his early-season role to Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker. He continues to run routes at a hefty 83% clip for the Dolphins, but hasn’t scored since Week 7. Tennessee is one of the most stout defenses against TEs. 

D.J. Moore, CAR - This one hurts, as Moore was my pick to be the “Stefon Diggs breakout” of 2021. He’s been reasonably productive as the WR23 in fantasy points per game but you can’t help but feel like there was meat left on the bone for him in 2021. Moore is earning targets at an excellent rate (26% TPRR), but his expected fantasy points per game are 4.4 points over his actual points per game output over the last four weeks. Of course, we can thank the horrible Carolina quarterback situation for most of that. To make matters worse, this week Moore lines up across from the Saints’ lockdown cornerback Marshon Lattimore.

Kevin Tompkins has been playing fantasy football for almost two decades. Amazingly in all that time, he has never drafted a bad running back. One would describe his fantasy takes as "reasonable."

One piece of breaking news for Sunday Night Football:

 

-PETE OVERZET

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