Dwain McFarland's 2024 Top 150 Rankings for Fantasy Football - Post-Free Agency Update
The first week of free agency was action-packed, with many big-name fantasy players finding new homes. Some significantly upgraded their outlook for 2024, while others saw their value decline. With that in mind, I have updated my top-150 fantasy football rankings and added commentary for the biggest risers and fallers.
For this update, the primary focus is on landing spots. I will still reference talent level because it is a significant success driver, but if you want a full breakdown of what stats matter for fantasy and having staying power year over year, I broke those down for each position ahead of free agency. You can find them here:
Additionally, Ian Hartitz (Kings Stay Kings) and the rest of the team have been hard at work keeping our NFL Free Agency Tracker up to date with all the latest signings. It is a great reference point if you are looking for someone I don’t mention in the rankings update.
Post-Free Agency Top 150 Fantasy Football Rankings
Quarterback Fantasy Football Rankings Changes
Upgrades:
Caleb Williams – QB14 (previously QB17)
Williams remains a heavy favorite to be the first pick in the NFL draft at -3500 on DraftKings, and this ranking assumes that the Bears don’t trade down. Chicago has been busy this offseason, adding Keenan Allen via a trade and signing D’Andre Swift and Gerald Everett in free agency. Once you add those pieces alongside D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet, you have the makings of a formidable offense with the flexibility to create mismatches even against good defenses.
Will Levis – QB26 (previously QB30)
Levis still doesn’t crack the top 150, but with the addition of Calvin Ridley, he offers late-round upside. Ridley joins DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks under new head coach Brian Callahan and offensive coordinator Nick Holz. The Titans might not morph into a pass-first unit in 2024, but the run-heavy ways of Mike Vrabel could be gone as the franchise seeks to see what they have in Levis in 2024.
Downgrades:
Justin Fields – QB22 (previously QB9)
The Steelers acquired Fields from the Bears for a sixth-round pick that morphs into a fourth-round pick if Fields plays at least 51% of the snaps. Based on early reports, the Steelers still view Russell Wilson as the starter.
We will see how this unfolds, but I believe Fields will be the Steelers' starter by midseason. Wilson’s moonballs often found gold at the other end of the rainbow in the old NFL. However, those days are gone, with defenses prioritizing the limitation of deep passing plays with two-high looks and extra-deep defenders.
Fields may never develop into a high-end passer, but his ability to generate yards on the ground is undeniable. Over the last three seasons, he has averaged 55.5 rushing yards per contest, second behind only Lamar Jackson (58.8).
Justin Herbert – QB15 (previously QB14)
The Chargers cut Mike Williams and traded away Keenan Allen for a fourth-round pick while beefing up their TE room with the signings of Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst. They also added a bruising RB in Gus Edwards while letting Austin Ekeler — one of the best receiving backs in the NFL — walk.
Yes, the Chargers had major salary cap challenges, but it is frightening that the team did not retain at least one of its premium pass catchers. Make no mistake, this team is undergoing a massive transformation, and it aligns with Jim Harbaugh’s M.O.
Hopefully, the Chargers will add a WR or TE with the fifth pick in the NFL draft, but for now we MUST downgrade expectations for Herbert.
Running Back Fantasy Football Rankings Changes
Upgrades:
Josh Jacobs – RB9 (previously RB15)
Heading into free agency, the best scenario for Jacobs was landing on an RB-needy quality offense without a high-end passing-down option. Inking a four-year $48M contract with the Packers — who cut Aaron Jones — Jacobs checks all of these boxes.
With A.J. Dillon returning on a minimal deal, the runway is clear for Jacobs to dominate snaps.
Nov 12, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (8) runs the ball against the New York Jets during the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
While Jacobs’ efficiency took a massive hit in 2023, he will only be 26 this season and has proven capable of handling large workloads. Over his first five seasons, he has never finished worse than a mid-range RB2 and flashed high-end RB1 upside with an RB3 finish in 2022.
While he might never duplicate that 2022 campaign, Jacobs offers low-end RB1 potential in Green Bay.
Derrick Henry – RB13 (previously RB17)
The Ravens scooped up Henry on a two-year $16M deal. Historically, the Ravens have heavily rotated their backfield, but with Gus Edwards gone (Chargers) and Keaton Mitchell recovering from a late-season ACL injury, the depth chart is thin.
At a minimum, Henry should immediately take over most of the early-down work and enjoy the benefits of playing with Lamar Jackson — who requires extra attention from run defenders.
Joe Mixon – RB18 (previously RB27)
There was a chance Mixon — even if cut or put on the block — would be in low demand, given his recent efficiency woes and the quality of the free-agent RB class. Those factors pushed him way down my original top 150.
However, after Jacobs, you could argue no one was luckier than Mixon when he was traded from the Bengals to the Texans for a seventh-round pick. In Houston, Mixon is met with minimal depth-chart resistance and steps into an offense with high-end scoring potential, thanks to C.J. Stroud.
D’Andre Swift – RB22 (previously RB26)
Swift signed a three-year deal worth $24M with the Bears. Although he has never lived up to his efficiency hype, he has demonstrated every-down ability and is a plus receiver out of the backfield. Last year, Swift’s fantasy production suffered due to Jalen Hurts handling 47% of the Eagles' carries inside the five-yard line and Kenneth Gainwell bogarting 81% of the two-minute offense.
In Chicago, Swift will have a chance to drastically improve his playing time in both areas, with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson as his primary competition.
Zack Moss – RB34 (previously RB45)
After the Bengals moved on from Mixon, they added Moss in free agency on a two-year $8M deal. Last season, Moss averaged 17.2 points per game in six games where he eclipsed the 60% snap threshold.
If Moss can push for that type of workload in Cincinnati, he could offer RB2 upside, but the team also likes second-year back Chase Brown, who will battle for touches.
Zamir White – RB36 (previously RB42)
White averaged 15.5 fantasy points over the last four contests of 2023 with Jacobs, who left for the Packers in free agency, out of the lineup. Right now, White’s primary competition for touches is the recently signed Alexander Mattison — who was a colossal flop as a starter for the Vikings in 2023. Mattison was terrible in pretty much every way imaginable, per Ian Hartitz:
- PFF rush grade: 70.2 (39th)
- Yards per carry: 3.9 (tied for 33rd)
- Yards over expected per carry (Next-Gen Stats): -0.25 (35th)
- Yards after contact per carry: 2.8 (tied for 33rd)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.21 (tied for 14th)
Ultimately, Mattison lost touches to Cam Akers before his injury and gave way to Ty Chandler as the starter to close the season. This will be a situation to monitor, but for now White has avoided the first wave of potential land mines in free agency.
There is a decent chance that the Raiders add to this room, but the RB Draft class isn’t deep, which gives White a chance of being the No. 1 back on the opening day of 2024.
Gus Edwards – RB42 (previously RB61)
The Chargers don’t have much depth in their backfield after Austin Ekeler moved on to the Commanders. The NFL Draft also isn’t very deep at the position this season, so there is a scenario where Edwards is the No. 1 back for a team that wants to run the rock.
Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco, James Cook
None of these backs got an upgrade, but they all avoided the addition of significant competition in free agency. With all of the big free agents off the board and the weakness of this draft class, we can feel more confident about drafting these players at ADP.
Downgrades:
Austin Ekeler – RB27 (previously RB18)
Ekeler landed with the Commanders on a deal for only $8.4M over two seasons. While Brian Robinson Jr. isn’t an insurmountable obstacle, this has the makings of a committee backfield. I expect Ekeler to take over the passing downs immediately, and he could eventually challenge for more early-down opportunities if Robinson falters. However, the Commanders' offense could take time to gel with a rookie QB and if they take Jayden Daniels, his propensity to run could hurt the RBs in the passing attack.
Tyjae Spears – RB28 (previously RB21)
Spears was electric in his rookie season, posting RB1-worthy marks in missed tackles forced per attempt (26%) and yards after contact (3.2). However, he appears destined for a committee role after the Titans signed Tony Pollard to a three-year $24M deal. Like Spears, Pollard flashed elite efficiency and high-end receiving chops early in his career, and if he returns to form, Spears could struggle to pass a 30% snap share.
Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Rankings Changes
Upgrades:
Drake London – WR14 (previously WR27)
London registered a 23% target share over his first 33 games in the NFL — a WR2-worthy mark. However, the Falcons have struggled through bad QB play over the last two seasons, averaging 172 and 222 yards per game passing. Now they get Kirk Cousins, who has averaged 271 yards over the last three seasons.
George Pickens – WR32 (previously WR36)
With Diontae Johnson traded to the Panthers, Pickens could see a significant increase in targets in 2024. Last season, Pickens demanded a 26% target share on plays without Johnson versus 20% with him. Initially, I thought the third-year WR would move further up my ranks based on this news, but we still have questions at QB with Wilson and Fields, and Arthur Smith has limited snap counts on some of his studs in the past.
Marquise Brown – WR38 (previously WR46)
Brown has demonstrated WR2-level ability in the target-earning and air yards departments multiple times in his career and now he gets to play with Patrick Mahomes. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice cap his target ceiling, but Brown offers big-play upside and offers WR1 upside if Kelce or Rice miss time in 2024.
Curtis Samuel – WR52 (previously WR71)
Samuel has delivered WR4-level finishes in his two healthy seasons in Washington. If the Bills return to their pass-friendly ways, their newly signed free agent could push for a top-36 finish. After Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid, the pecking order is wide open in Buffalo.
Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston – WR58 and WR59 (previously WR60 and unranked)
With Allen and Williams gone, there is a massive void in the Chargers’ passing attack. Neither Palmer nor Johnston profile as high-end target earners. However, Palmer has flashed WR3 upside in the past, and despite Johnston’s horrendous rookie season, he still has first-round draft capital.
Downgrades:
Justin Jefferson – WR4 (previously WR4)
I already had Jefferson at WR4 due to the risk of Cousins leaving, but I wanted to call this out again because we could see a MASSIVE downswing in passing yards per game in Minnesota. Cousins averaged 271 passing yards per contest over the last three seasons versus the 196 we saw from Darnold from 2020 to 2022.
The Vikings also traded for the Texans' first-round pick and now hold the 11th and 23rd picks. That could allow them to trade up for a QB. Since 2011, QBs taken in the top 16 have averaged 211 yards per game as rookies, but that improves to 222 when taking one inside the top three.
Jan 7, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) looks at the big screen during second half of the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
Regardless of Minnesota's path, this unit has a strong chance of a dramatic downturn in passing production — likely between 40 and 60 yards per game. Other WRs in this scenario have experienced a drop in production 86% of the time, dipping by three points per game on average over the last 12 years.
In early drafts on Underdog, fantasy managers have already started to adjust, with Jefferson falling 1.9 spots down to pick 5.7 behind Ja’Marr Chase and Bijan Robinson.
Calvin Ridley – WR36 (previously WR30)
The Titans inked Ridley to a four-year $92M deal to start alongside DeAndre Hopkins so the team can see what they have in Will Levis. While Tennessee’s run-heavy ways are likely over, with Mike Vrabel gone, this isn’t an optimal landing spot for Ridley. Hopkins represents significant target competition — he averaged a 28% share last season. Additionally, Levis is an unknown. He made some great throws last season, but the consistency is a question mark.
Keenan Allen – WR25 (previously WR20)
Over the last three seasons, the Chargers have been one of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL, and Allen has enjoyed operating as the No. 1 WR with a quality young QB. Theoretically, Allen could step back in all those areas in 2024 despite heading to a promising young offense. He will have to battle Moore for targets and Chicago could battle QB challenges with a rookie — even if it is Williams.
Rashee Rice – WR15 (previously WR11)
Rice was amazing once in a full-time role as a rookie. He averaged 16.6 PPG with a 25% target share from Week 14 through the Super Bowl. However, the arrival of Marquise Brown is just enough to move him slightly down the ranks into mid-range WR2 territory.
Tight End Fantasy Football Rankings Changes
Upgrades:
Kyle Pitts – TE6 (previously TE11)
The former No. 4 overall draft pick hasn’t lived up to expectations in fantasy. However, based on data since 2011, his 21% TPRR and 1.73 YPRR for his career are mid-range TE1-worthy marks. With the arrival of Cousins, we could see the Falcons' passing attack improve by 40 to 50 yards per contest, which is fantastic news for the 23-year-old TE.
Evan Engram – TE8 (previously TE8)
After Christian Kirk's injury, Engram averaged 19.2 fantasy points with a 28% target share over the final five contests. With Ridley gone, the Jaguars could have a similar condensed passing game in 2024. They added Gabriel Davis in free agency, but Davis has never been a strong target-earner.
Downgrades:
Cole Kmet – TE17 (previously TE14)
The addition of target-magnet Keenan Allen is a big blow to Kmet. Allen averaged a 32% target share last season — far more than Darnell Mooney’s 13%. The Bears also added Gerald Everett, which could push Kmet into more of a rotation.
