Dynasty Offseason Outlook: Stock Watch and Trade Targets for 2024
The dynasty fantasy football season never sleeps, and the 2024 NFL offseason shook up dynasty values across the land. Here's a look at the top players who saw their dynasty rise or fall the most after free agency and the draft, plus risers, fallers and trade targets ahead of the NFL season.
Dynasty Risers & Fallers
Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons
The prize of free agency, Kirk Cousins has been a pretty consistent top-10 option since arriving in Minnesota:
- 2018: -0.012 EPA per dropback (No. 29 among qualified QBs)
- 2019: +0.199 (No. 7)
- 2020: +0.188 (No. 10)
- 2021: +0.137 (No. 10)
- 2022: +0.058 (No. 19)
- 2023: +0.145 (No. 6)
Cousins landed in arguably the best situation possible for a veteran coming off a brutal injury (Achilles tear). Last season, the Falcons boasted PFF’s No. 4 pass-blocking offensive line and currently have the offensive weapons for Cousins to succeed right away — WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts and RB Bijan Robinson are legit No. 1 options.
Despite the injury, new environment and sudden presence of a first-round rookie QB (Michael Penix Jr.), dynasty managers should feel confident having Cousins as a high-end QB2 with low-end QB1 upside.
Russell Wilson / Justin Fields, QBs, Steelers
I had several offseason discussions with our own Sam Holt (resident Steelers fan) about who Pittsburgh would bring in at QB. Our guesses:
- Sam H.: Justin Fields
- Sam W.: Russell Wilson
We never thought we'd both be right.
Wilson will get the first crack at the starting role, but we'll see how soon the clamor for Fields begins. Fields offers more intrigue with his rushing ability, but the Steelers have been content winning with conservative QB play and an elite defense.
Wilson offers decent value this season, but Fields is someone I would acquire in superflex formats, especially if the price has dropped now that he's a QB2.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles
A free agent RB got the bag. What a time to be alive!
The Eagles gave Saquon Barkley $37.75 million reasons ($25.5 million guaranteed) to be their lead back and help get them back to the Super Bowl. He's now the fourth-highest-paid RB, as only Alvin Kamara ($75 million), Christian McCaffrey ($64 million) and Jonathan Taylor ($42 million) have contracts with a higher total value.
This move is fantastic for fantasy managers, as the Giants trotted out the 30th-ranked offensive line last season. At 27 years old, Barkley still offers RB1 upside.
Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens
I'm more excited about Derrick Henry landing with the Ravens than I am about Barkley swapping teams in his own division.
The discussion around Henry has long been, "Father Time will win eventually," but, man, I am ready to risk it all and run it back this year. Henry turned 30 in January, but one post from Ian Hartitz was enough to get me back on board.
Derrick Henry's yards AFTER contact per carry
- 2023: 3.3 (8th)
- 2022: 3.6 (4th)
- 2021: 3.3 (9th)
- 2020: 3.9 (2nd)
Titans' yards BEFORE contact per carry
- 2023: 0.9 (30th)
- 2022: 1.0 (30th)
- 2021: 1.3 (18th)
- 2020: 1.5 (13th)
Ravens' yards BEFORE contact per carry
- 2020-23: 1.8 (1st)
It's hard to fathom a better landing spot. Still, temper expectations. Mid/low-end RB1 is probably his ceiling outside of a 20-TD season. If you need a swing-for-the-fences type of player for one season, Henry is your guy.
Keenan Allen, WR, Bears
Most free agency moves don't bother me on a personal level. I get it, the NFL is a business and both players and organizations are going to make business moves.
But Keean Allen NOT being in the patented powder blue Chargers uniform this season is going to hurt.
Sigh … nothing lasts forever.
Allen was as close to a lock as any WR for 100 receptions, 1,100 receiving yards and six TDs. Every. Single. Year. The ceiling might not be there in Chicago, but his style of play should keep dynasty managers interested despite Allen being 32 years old.
Hollywood Brown, WR, Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs continued the annual tradition of addressing their WR room by bringing in Marquise Brown on a one-year deal. And the seemingly wasted opportunities of Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney, the loss of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and the off-field issues for Rashee Rice make this a unique chance for Hollywood.
The addition of Brown adds the type of weapon the Chiefs have been lacking since trading Tyreek Hill.
Ian Hartitz summarized it perfectly:
"Hollywood's versatility will make him an instant target magnet. And his presence doesn't have to affect Rice's snaps. Brown can play the Z receiver with Rice in the slot. With both demanding defenders' attention and Kelce still doing his thing, the Kansas City passing game will be a force to reckon with yet again in 2024."
Dynasty Stock Watch
BrIan Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars
Here's one of the players I was most excited to follow at the NFL Draft. After the Big 3 wideouts (Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Roman Odunze), Dwain McFarland's WR Rookie Model had him as the WR4 among rookies.
On draft night, the Jaguars traded back from No. 17 to 23 in a deal with the Vikings and landed Thomas there. He checks in at 6-foot-3 and 209 pounds and ran a 4.33 40-yard dash. Ian Hartitz put a bow on Thomas' profile with this nugget:
“His 9.97 out of 10.00 RAS score ranks 10th out of 3,063 WRs from 1987 to 2024.”
The Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones and now have only the newly added Gabe Davis to pair with Christian Kirk. Thomas has the physical tools to step in and immediately become a focal point for Trevor Lawrence.
Dynasty Stock → UP
Joe Mixon, RB, Texans
The NFL told us everything we needed to know about this incoming class of rookie RBs back when free agency began. Now Mixon's free-agent deal looks like one of the league's best offseason moves.
RB Joe Mixon: Traded to Houston Texans (previous team: Cincinnati Bengals)
The Texans' loss of Devin Singletary opens the door for Mixon to be the clear RB1 ahead of only Dameon Pierce. Even if Pierce serves as a complementary option, Mixon is currently a great value for dynasty managers with an ADP of RB23.
Mixon will have just turned 28 when the season begins, and his new contract is for three years. Look for him to help stabilize the ground game for C.J. Stroud and the Texans.
Dynasty Stock → UP
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Colts
Day 2 draft capital and Adonai Mitchell's amazing physical profile (fifth-best RAS score of 3,188 WRs from 1987 to 2024) are encouraging signs for him, but the presence of an inexperienced, run-focused QB in Anthony Richardson, an elite RB in Jonathan Taylor and a tandem of solid WRs in Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs already in place at Indy made this a better real football move than fantasy, at least for now.
Dynasty Stock → DOWN
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams
He'll still be the primary option, but Kyren Williams will no longer be the only man in the backfield after the Rams spent a Day 2 pick on Blake Corum. Regardless of what you think of Corum, his ability to handle a large workload and take the pressure off Williams will keep him on the field more often than fantasy managers of Williams would like. The Rams also signed Boston Scott as another depth piece.
Dynasty Stock → DOWN
Dynasty Trade Targets
George Pickens, WR, Steelers
The Steelers drafted offensive linemen with their first two picks and three of their first five. While they did take WR Roman Wilson in Round 3, there's value to be had with George Pickens.
Jan 15, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (14) makes a catch in the first half against the Buffalo Bills in a 2024 AFC wild card game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
After Diontae Johnson — and his 8.2 career targets per game — was traded to the Carolina Panthers, the door immediately opened for Pickens to take on a larger role. Pickens' metrics were already solid even with subpar QB play last season:
- 95% route participation
- 20% TPRR
- 23% target share
- 39% air yards
Despite his challenges in Denver, newly acquired Russell Wilson did have either 200 passing yards or two TDs in 11 of 15 games. With a more competent QB, Pickens shouldn't have too much difficulty outperforming his current dynasty ADP of WR28.
Jameson Williams, WR, Lions
College production, draft capital, athletic profile, offensive situation and his recovery timeline from injury are all reasons to be excited about Jameson Williams. With so much attention focused on the other weapons in Detroit, Williams profiles as the ideal post-hype sleeper. He is currently the dynasty WR50. That's way too cheap considering his pedigree, profile, talent and draft capital.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys
In his first season as the starting option, Jake Ferguson went 71-761-5 on 102 targets. He was second in targets for the Cowboys behind only CeeDee Lamb (181); he earned over 20 more targets than the next-closest player (Brandin Cooks). To further put Ferguson’s season in perspective, he finished inside the top 10 among all TEs in every key statistic. Both RB Tony Pollard and WR Michael Gallup are gone, which frees up 124 targets from last season. Lamb and Ferguson could be the ones taking the vast majority. As such, Ferguson's dynasty ADP of TE12 is too cheap. Dynasty managers, figure it out.
Draft Recap
The NFL Draft was historically slanted toward the offensive side of the ball. Six QBs went in the first 12 picks, and the first defensive player wasn't selected until 15th overall. Seven WRs and one TE also made their way into Round 1. While most wideouts landed on teams where they'll have a chance to contribute right away, I'm less optimistic about the early returns of players such as Rome Odunze, Brock Bowers and Adonai Mitchell. Love the players, don't love their situations in the short term.
Veteran RBs were among the biggest winners of the draft. This incoming class wasn't perceived as strong even back when free agency began, and the draft all but confirmed it.
QB landing spots were mostly what we expected (except for the Falcons snagging Michael Penix Jr.). Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Bo Nix should all start for their respective teams in Week 1, and depending on how the offseason goes, Vikings rookie J.J. McCarthy shouldn't be too far behind.
