2025 Rookie Wide Receiver Super Model
Our goal is to identify the top rookie prospects based on data points that correlate most with future NFL production.
If you want a complete breakdown of how the model works, check out the Super Model Inputs & Methodology below the table.
The Rookie Super Model is a data-centric approach to grading rookie prospects based on inputs that best predict NFL production.
Each rookie running back is rated between 50 and 100. The higher the score, the more likely that prospect is to be successful in the NFL over their first three seasons.
Below is a quick review of how prospects fared over their first three seasons based on their Super Model rating. For example, 100% of the five wide receivers rated between 90 and 100 notched a top-24 finish within their first three years, while 24% of the 42 wideouts between 70 and 79 accomplished that same feat.
Wide Receiver Hit Rates
How has the Rookie Super Model performed?
Much of the advanced collegiate data that fuels the model wasn't available before the 2018 class (PFF began charting college teams in 2014, and we need a player's entire career). So, our sample size remains limited, but the results are promising.
This journey began with the goal of adding value beyond NFL Draft pick, which we have achieved. However, the focus has now shifted to improving beyond draft capital value since we know that is a much better representation of the value of a pick.
The model adds value at the running back and tight end positions. Wide receiver has been the toughest of the three positions to improve. Below you can see the model is slightly ahead, but I call this a push.
Wide Receiver:
- NFL Draft Pick: 0.61
- NFL Draft Capital: 0.67
- Super Model without Draft Capital: 0.61
- Super Model with Draft Capital: 0.69