TE Sleepers for Fantasy Football 2024: Opportunity Abounds for Juwan Johnson

Honestly, I’m still trying to figure out the tight end position.

Not just what they do, but why they play the role. Using this year as an example, the franchise tag price for an O-lineman ($20.985 million) is more than 65% more than it is for a tight end ($12.693 million). Most of them don't churn out consistent production in the NFL until their second contract. As a 5-foot-9, 170-pound fantasy writer, I'd simply say get bigger and play a different position. But enough about me.

The league meta has changed. TE archetypes are more diverse. And despite the "glorified WR" being the popular profile to target, we can find useful options later in the draft.

Process

As alluded to above, we already have categories established for tight ends. Based on past usage (collegiate and professional) and athletic profile, we can typically gauge where each player will fall on the spectrum.

• WR playing TE: primarily a route runner and can create fantasy value through volume (e.g. Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta)
• Move TE: a blocker and short-range receiver; rely more on touchdowns to be a TE1 (e.g. Hunter Henry, Luke Musgrave)
• Moves-slow TE: primarily a blocker, but can produce as a short-yardage/goal-line option (e.g., MyCole Pruitt, Drew Sample)

While the Kelces and George Kittles of the world are more reliable each week, a two-TD game from Donald Parham Jr. lies in wait. Accordingly, we can spot some of the viable TEs ahead of time utilizing key metrics and correlating them to fantasy points.

• Target Share: 0.62 (r-squared)
• TPRR: 0.34
• Route Rate: 0.27 
• (Team-Level) Yards per Drive: 0.18
• (Team-Level) EPA per Play: 0.12
• (Team-Level) Pass Rate Over Expectation: 0.11

Of course, volume is king. But running routes and earning looks on a lesser route rate than most WRs are conducive to fantasy points for TEs. Simply put, if they’re on the field and not blocking, we should keep an eye on them. Nevertheless, their surroundings (e.g. QB play, WR depth) can also point us in the right direction.

2024 TE Sleepers

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints

If we can accept that a tight end's offensive environment isn’t as important as earning targets, investing in the Saints’ aerial attack doesn’t sound so bad. 

Yes, you’re relying on Derek Carr, but Carr did have just two fewer top-12 finishes than Patrick Mahomes. And the former Raiders QB had more 300-yard passing games than Josh Allen.

Just sayin'. 

Anecdotally, Juwan Johnson’s situation looks favorable. New Orleans let WR Michael Thomas speak kindly and hold a knife elsewhere, and former Saints OC Pete Carmichael Jr.’s exodus to Denver to again pair with HC Sean Payton adds more smoke to the "Taysom Hill may be traded" fire. With unproven A.T. Perry and Rashid Shaheed flanking Chris Olave, Johnson has a clear path to consistent targets in 2024. 

And he already showcased his ability to earn more work last season.

• Route Rate (from Week 8): 63.5%, 2nd among all starting Saints pass catchers
• Target Share: 14.9%, 2nd 
• TPRR: 21.1%, 3rd
• Green-zone Target Share: 15.8%, T-1st

Johnson returned from injury in Week 8 to a 54.8% route rate and just two targets. But his routes, air yards and looks from Carr steadily rose and culminated in a 12-target game for Johnson in the fantasy playoffs. Johnson’s growing workload even gave Taysom’s weekly package a run for its money. With a wider runway in ’24, we shouldn’t overlook Johnson’s potential because of our apathy toward the Saints’ offense.

Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals

Mike Gesicki falls into the sleeper category, as drafters force their eyelids to close when they see his name. Whether it's because of his horrific rendition of The Griddy or his inability to accrue more than 400 yards in a season since 2021, the Penn State graduate has burned too many of us. But his situation looks brighter in 2024.

It’s easy to look at Gesicki’s time in Miami as his best shot at being fantasy-relevant. After all, Miami has ranked three spots ahead of Cincinnati in offensive EPA per play since Mike McDaniel took over. However, Zac Taylor and the Bengals lean on their ancillary receiving options.

• Route Rate (2022 / 2021): 56.9% (Hayden Hurst, 2022), 73.4% (C.J. Uzomah, 2021)
• Target Share: 11.4%, 12.3%
• TPRR: 17.6%, 13.7%
• Red-Zone Route Rate: 51.5%, 82.4%

For both Hayden Hurst and C.J. Uzomah, who inarguably possess weaker athletic profiles, every metric is greater than Gesicki’s over the last two years. It should be no surprise that a stint with Mac Jones and Bill O’Brien would bog down anyone’s stat lines. But playing alongside Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle didn’t do him any favors, either. In 2022, they accounted for 51.7% of the team’s regular-season targets. Luckily, it’s not as condensed in Cincinnati.

• Third-/Fourth-Down Target Share:  23.5% (Tyler Boyd, 2023), 14.4% (Hurst, 2022), 10.6% (Uzomah, 2021)
• When QB Pressured Target Share: 22.0%, 5.7%, 15.4%

I included Tyler Boyd in this sample because of his role in high-leverage situations. Plus, they were scenarios with some overlap with the TEs. Even for how disastrous the one-year agreement turned out, Irv Smith Jr.’s TPRR (11.1%) wasn’t far from Gesicki’s (13.3%).

For Gesicki in 2024, it’s less about the talent and more about the role. The Bengals have integrated the TE into their offense, and Joe Burrow has targeted them in the areas of the field most conducive to fantasy points. With only a rookie WR (Jermaine Burton) to claim Boyd’s WR3 spot, all signs point to a target-laden situation for Gesicki this year.

Los Angeles Chargers TEs

I’m specifically calling out L.A.’s TE group as a whole, but the primary beneficiaries are Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst. They have three things working in their favor.

First, the Chargers are retooling their offense. HC Jim Harbaugh and the front office spent just one of their first five picks on an offensive skill player after losing three starters via free agency. After Ladd McConkey, Justin Herbert has a cadre of fourth-round, seventh-round and UDFAs for support. A veteran TE would be a welcome sight to the fifth-year QB as his WRs learn the ropes.

Second, the Greg Roman of it all. The new Chargers OC's penchant for grinding out games on the ground is the headline, but his tendencies toward TE-friendly personnel packages — after spending time as a TE coach in 2002 and 2017 — are the subplot. In 2022, with Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely on the roster, Roman had the Ravens using two-TE sets at the seventh-highest rate. They sat at the league average in the same metric in 2018 when Andrews and Hurst were on the roster together. Combined with the lack of reliable WRs, expecting to see more of the TEs from a Greg Roman offense isn’t outlandish.

Finally, let’s look at the TEs the Chargers picked up. Hurst’s familiarity with Roman already sets him up for success. Prior to HC Frank Reich’s firing, Hurst was at a 51.1% route rate with a higher TPRR than DJ Chark. And Dissly’s 0.64 EPA per target was the highest among Seattle’s pass catchers in 2022. Both operate inline or from the slot, offering the versatility and short-area efficiency Harbaugh envisions for the Chargers in 2024.

Ben Sinnott, Washington Commanders

Rookie TEs are typically tough to gauge. If they're not "glorified WRs" in college, we're less enthusiastic about their fantasy prospects as rookies. But with Sinnott, I can see a path to viability.

Let's start simple. Seeing a tight end run routes is an easy indicator of his utility in the passing game. For fantasy purposes, if I had to choose between a TE who primarily blocks or the one running around out there, I'd take the guy scrambling around. 

Sinnott ran a route on at least 70.0% of Kansas State's team dropbacks in consecutive seasons (79.0%, 74.0%). Even better, he ended his collegiate career with a 20.1% target share. Sinnott had the second-most targets of any Wildcats pass-catcher in 2023. Granted, it's not like the team was laden with NFL stars, but the rest of Sinnott's peripheral stats compare well relative to his classmates.

• Air Yard Share: 18.4% (2nd)
• Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt: 1.04 (4th)
• Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 27.0% (2nd)
• Yards after the Catch per Reception: 6.8 (3rd)

In Washington, Sinnott's primary competition is 33-year-old Zach Ertz, who did have a 19.4% target share in Arizona before injuries cut his season short. But Sinnott's pass-blocking skill set may get him the nod over the vet in time.

Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury used two-TE sets and TEs set in lineman spots to create an efficient running game during his time as the Cardinals' HC. Earning snaps in running concepts would be step one toward Sinnott taking over as a receiver. And with only Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson as the primary WRs, Sinnott should work into the aerial attack sooner rather than later.