Matt LaMarca delivers his Best Bets for the Week 4 Monday Night Football doubleheader featuring the Titans-Dolphins and Seahawks-Lions.
For the second straight week, the NFL is offering up a Monday Night Football doubleheader. The two games will take place almost concurrently, with the Dolphins hosting the Titans at 7:30 p.m. ET and the Lions hosting the Seahawks at 8:15 p.m. ET.
The first game features two teams searching for answers at the most important position in football. The Titans need to get better production out of Will Levis, who has 7 turnovers through the first three weeks. Miami is on its third different starting QB this season, with Tyler Huntley replacing the injured Tua Tagovailoa and Skylar Thompson.
The second game is definitely the more appealing contest. The Seahawks enter at a perfect 3-0, having knocked off the Broncos, Patriots, and Dolphins. This will be their toughest test yet, with the Lions sitting at 2-1 after making it to the NFC Championship Game in 2023.
Let’s dive into both contests to try and find some betting value.
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)—37.0 total
The line movement in this game has been interesting. The Titans were initially listed as small favorites, but this number has since moved toward Miami. The Dolphins have gotten more credit with Huntley announced as their starting quarterback instead of what would have been with Tim Boyle.
Huntley is undoubtedly their best option for this matchup, but I would argue it’s still not a very good one. He’s just 3-6 as a starter, despite playing his entire career with a really good Ravens team. He has the ability to make things happen with his legs, but he’s averaged just 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt with his arm.
Huntley is going to have to navigate a Titans’ defense that looks improved in 2024. They’re 14th in EPA per play defensively, though they are navigating some brutal injuries on that side of the ball. Chidobe Awuzie was placed on IR this Friday, while Jeffery Simmons is doubtful and L’Jarius Sneed is questionable.
Still, the Dolphins have some injury questions themselves. In addition to the QB injuries, both Terron Armstead and Kendall Fuller have already been ruled out for this contest. Raheem Mostert is also questionable after missing the past two games.
Ultimately, I’m going to side with the Titans here. I think they are better than their record suggests. They just need their QB to stop sabotaging them with back-breaking turnovers. Additionally, teams that are 0-3 both straight up and ATS tend to provide value in Week 4, going 18-12-3 ATS since 2005.
The Pick: Titans +2.5 (-110; BetMGM)
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-4.0)—47.0 total
The Seahawks have looked very impressive through the first three weeks. They have the No. 9 offense in terms of yards and points per game, while their defense ranks in the top four in both categories. That said, beating the Broncos, Patriots, and Tua-less Dolphins doesn’t mean very much. We’ll find out much more about them in this spot vs. the Lions.
On paper, Detroit hasn’t been overly impressive to start the year. The Lions are merely 16th in points per game, and both of their wins have come by one score. They also lost a game to the Buccaneers despite outgaining them by nearly 250 yards.
That said, I have no concerns with the Lions long term. Their offense is still fourth in yards per game, so they’re just as explosive as they were last year. They simply haven’t put the ball in the end zone at a high enough rate to start the year.
Ultimately, I’m going to side with the under here. Both of these defenses seem undervalued. The Seahawks are No. 1 in EPA per play defensively at the moment, while the Lions have been elite against the run.
Detroit has also employed a run-heavy style offensively to start the year, posting a dropback over expectation (DBOE) of -6% or lower in two of their first three games. Each game for these two teams has gone Under 47.0 to start the year, and I see no reason why that would change in Week 4.
The Pick: Under 47.0 (-110; Caesars)
Player Props for Monday Night Football
Tyler Huntley Under 32.5 rushing yards (-115; BetMGM)
Huntley is certainly a threat with his legs, and he’s averaged 41.7 rushing yards per game in his nine starts. However, that was in a completely different system; the Ravens’ offense was already geared around having a mobile quarterback. The Dolphins’ system is not designed in the same way, so don’t expect many designed QB runs for Huntley. Matthew Freedman currently has Huntley projected for just 23 rushing yards, and I still think that might be a smidge high.
Tony Pollard Over 13.5 receiving yards (-115; BetMGM)
I don’t understand this line at all. Pollard has been extremely busy as a pass catcher through the first three weeks, racking up at least 4 targets in all four games. He’s gotten to at least 15 receiving yards in two of those contests, and barring a change in usage he should be able to do that pretty consistently. He needs only to average roughly 3.5 yards per target to hit the over on 13.5 yards.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 11.5 carries (+100; BetMGM)
The Lions ran the heck out of the ball last week, with Gibbs and David Montgomery combining for 39 carries. Montgomery got most of the opportunities, but Gibbs was still able to get to at least 13 carries for the second straight week. The best way to attack the Seahawks’ defense is on the ground, so I’m anticipating another run-heavy approach for Detroit in this matchup.
