The Utilization Score: Understanding Player Roles to Forecast Future Performance

The Utilization Score represents the strength of a player's role and performance relative to their peers. It is a weighted calculation incorporating the most predictive data points associated with scoring future points at the RB, WR, and TE positions since 2020.

Why should I care about the Utilization Score?

When evaluating weekly and rolling-four-week performance, the Utilization Score is more stable and predictive than fantasy points per game. It is stronger than industry standards like snaps, attempts, targets, and air yards.

How do I use the Utilization Score?

As a fantasy player or bettor, you can use the Utilization Score to help identify over or underperforming players. In fantasy, this means identifying the proper waiver wire pickups and buy-low or sell-high candidates. It can also be helpful when making tough start-sit decisions.

How do I interpret the Utilization Score?

The highest possible Utilization Score is 10.0, and the lowest is 0.0. There is a range of outcomes in fantasy production for each Utilization Score. But at the 30,000-foot level, the higher the score, the better for fantasy and vice versa.

Below is a position-by-position breakdown, providing the average fantasy points per game (PPG) and a range of outcomes for season-long finishes. For example, RBs with a score between 6.0 and 6.9 averaged 12.2 points, with the majority of finishes (~70%-plus) landing between an RB2 and RB3 campaign.

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

What data points make up the Utilization Score?

Most of the Utilization Score is forged from data points such as snaps, rush share, route participation, target share, catchable targets, and catchable air yards. However, fantasy points per game also get some weight to help account for a player's offensive environment and ability to convert opportunities into production.

Why isn't there a Utilization Score for QBs?

We tested every QB data point we could get our hands on but ultimately didn't find anything more substantial than fantasy points per game, which was our benchmark. We assess new data points and approaches each offseason, so this could change in future seasons.

How stable and predictive were the Utilization Scores?

The Utilization Score outperformed fantasy points per game at every position when testing week-over-week (WoW) and rolling-four-over-rolling-four (FoF) outcomes. Below is a table with r-squared values for each period, including year-over-year (YoY).

Stability represents how stable the Utilization Score was across time periods, while N+1 represents its predictiveness to PPR fantasy points in the next period.

We could have weighted the Utilization Scores in a way that would have been even more predictive, but we wanted to maintain robustness and stability. We aim to build a solution that can withstand the test of time.