After nearly a week off, all 30 MLB teams are set to return to action on Friday. Each team has around 65 games left on their schedule, and there’s still plenty to be decided in both leagues. The division races are tight almost across the board, with four of the six division leaders currently holding an edge of 4.5 games or less. The Wild Card standings are also jam-packed, so we should be looking at an exciting finish.
Friday’s slate features 15 games to choose from, with most of the action coming in the evening. Let’s dive into some of my favorite bets for Friday’s slate.
MLB BETS TODAY – PICKS FOR FRIDAY, JULY 19
Chicago Cubs ML vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-140; BetMGM)
I’m going to continue to ride Justin Steele until the wheels fall off. His ERA is down to 2.71 for the year, and that still undersells how dominant he’s been of late. Over his past nine starts, he’s posted an elite 1.48 ERA with a 2.37 FIP. He mowed down the Orioles in his last outing, pitching seven scoreless innings against one of the best offenses in baseball.
If he can thrive vs. the Orioles, he can surely do the same vs. the Diamondbacks. Their offense has been good vs. southpaws, but Steele is simply on another level.
The Diamondbacks will counter with Ryne Nelson, who is a pitcher who I have backed at times this season. He grades out well from a pitch modeling perspective, but that has yet to translate into tangible results (4.98 ERA; 4.60 xERA). He’s also one of the worst strikeout pitchers in baseball, ranking in the sixth percentile for strikeout rate and fourth percentile for whiff rate.
That sets up well for the Cubs’ lineup. They strike out at an above-average clip, but they can do damage when they put the ball in play. Ultimately, getting the Cubs at -140 at home is too good to pass up.
Oakland Athletics ML vs. Los Angeles Angels (-110; FanDuel)
It’s never a good sign when you don’t know who your starting pitcher is going to be following nearly a week off. Theoretically, every pitcher on your team should be available, so you typically just pick your top guy. That’s not the case with the Angels. They’ve yet to name a starting pitcher for Friday’s matchup vs. the A’s, probably because each member of their pitching staff is equally uninspiring. They’re 28th in team ERA, so whoever they send to the bump is going to be underwhelming.
On the other side, the A’s will turn to J.P. Sears. Sears is a mediocre but dependable starter, posting an ERA between 3.86 and 4.56 in each year in the majors. He also throws from the left side, which should play well vs. the Angels: they’re 18th in wRC+ vs. southpaws.
The A’s don’t have a pitching advantage very often, but that feels like the case on Friday. Their offense has actually held its own this season (15th in wRC), so -110 stands out as a solid value.
MORE MLB BETS FOR FRIDAY, JULY 19
Astros ML at Mariners (+110)
The Astros got off to a dreadful start this season, but they’ve fought back over the past few months. They’re now just 1.0 game behind the Mariners in the AL West, so they could take the lead with a good series in Seattle. They’ll have to deal with Luis Castillo on Friday, but Castillo hasn’t been as dominant as usual this season (3.79 xERA). Hunter Brown has the superior metrics, and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his past seven outings. I’ll take my chances with the red-hot Astros as underdogs.
Red Sox-Dodgers Under 8.5 runs (-105)
This contest features a strong pitching matchup between Nick Pivetta and Gavin Stone. Pivetta remains an above-average starter, posting a 3.74 xERA, while Stone has cruised to a 3.26 ERA this season. The Dodgers’ offense has cooled down significantly with Mookie Betts out of the lineup, while the Red Sox are due for some serious regression. They’ve posted a .355 BABIP in July, which is the third-highest team BABIP for any month over the past five seasons. Expect runs to be at a premium.
2024 MLB BETS RECORD
- All-Star Game: 2-2 (-0.09 units)
- Season: 183-185-9 (-9.80 units)
All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.
