College football bowl season is nearing the end. It’s been good to us so far – we’re 4-1 with Arizona and Missouri still pending in these writeups – but there are only a handful of games left after Friday. This piece will focus on the four games taking place on Saturday and five games taking place on New Year's Day.

That includes the two marquee games of bowl season: the Rose Bowl between Alabama and Michigan and the Sugar Bowl featuring Texas and Washington. The winner of those games will compete for the National Championship on January 8th.

That said, there are plenty of other solid games to choose from for betting purposes this coming weekend. With that said, let’s dive into my favorite bets for this weekend's bowl games and start the new year with some wins.

Liberty +17.0 at Oregon (-110, DraftKings)

This is quite possibly the largest stage that Liberty will ever get. They ran the table with a perfect 13-0 season, and they’ll get their reward with a New Year's Day bowl against Oregon. Oregon was considered a legit threat for the National Championship heading into the season, but they ultimately came up short in their two meetings against Washington.

From a motivational standpoint, that gives a clear edge to Liberty. They’re excited to be here while Oregon has to feel a bit disappointed with how their season went. They wanted to be playing on New Year's Day, but they were probably expecting to be in one of the two CFB semifinal games.

Additionally, Liberty has a clear edge in player availability. They have just six players in the transfer portal, and only one of those transfers saw meaningful snaps this season. The Flames do have a couple of injuries to monitor, but they’ll essentially be at full strength for this matchup against the Ducks.

Meanwhile, Oregon has already had three key contributors opt out, and there could be more coming on the horizon. Head coach Dan Lanning has stated that starting QB Bo Nix and RB Bucky Irving will both play, so it won’t be a true disaster situation, but the Ducks will have less talent on the field than they did in the regular season.

Bo Nix

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix throws down field against Oregon State during the second quarter at Autzen Stadium Friday, Nov. 24, 2023 in Eugene. Photo Credit: Chris Pietsch/The Register Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

Will any of that matter? Probably not. Oregon is still the superior football team, so they should be able to secure a victory. Liberty also hasn’t played a ranked opponent all season, so this is a massive step up in competition for them. That said, the Ducks being at less than full strength at least gives the Flames a chance to keep things competitive.

The sharps are all over Liberty in this spot, as they've garnered 64% of the money on just 36% of the bets. The line is already down to 16.5 points at most locations, so grab Liberty +17.0 while you still can.

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Georgia -19.0 at Florida State (-110, Caesars)

This game should be called the “Could’ve Been Bowl.” Before Conference Championship week, if you had told me that Georgia was going to be playing Florida State, I would’ve assumed that it would've been a semifinal matchup.

Unfortunately, we know how things played out. Georgia lost their spot in the playoffs after a loss to Alabama, and the committee decided to keep FSU out of the playoffs after they lost star QB Jordan Travis to injury. The Seminoles became the first undefeated champion from a Power Five conference to not make the CFB playoffs, and while many disliked the decision, I think they made the right call.

Without Travis, FSU simply cannot compete with the best teams in college football. They managed to survive in the ACC Championship game against Louisville, but it’s clear that Louisville isn’t nearly as good as their record suggests. QB Jack Plummer had one of the worst performances I’d ever seen, and the Cardinals followed that up with an embarrassing loss to a Caleb Williams-less USC team in their bowl game.

Florida State may have beaten Louisville solely with their defense, but Georgia is a vastly different opponent. Even though the Bulldogs aren't playing for a shot at the National Championship, you could argue that they’re the most talented team in college football. Most power ratings still have them as the best team in the league from an ATS perspective.

Both of these teams unsurprisingly have a lot of transfers and opt-outs, but Georgia is in way better shape. FSU already has nine starters opting out of this contest, and backup QB Tate Rodemaker is in the transfer portal. The Bulldogs only have two confirmed players in the transfer portal at the time of this writing, and starting QB Carson Beck has already confirmed that he’ll play.

This game has the potential to get really ugly. I’m happy to play Georgia as a favorite of anything under three TDs.

You can lock in Georgia -19.0 at Caesars, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you sign up for a new account below!

Maryland +6.5 vs. Auburn (-110, FanDuel)

This is a rare game where I’m siding with the team in worse shape. Maryland is going to be in a tough position with the number of players they have sitting out. They’ll be missing three of their starters from the regular season on defense, and more importantly, starting QB Taulia Tagovailoa has also decided to sit.

Still, I can’t pass up the opportunity to fade Auburn getting nearly a full TD.

The Tigers barely managed to earn a bowl game at 6-6, and they've been an unimpressive squad all season. In fact, Auburn doesn't have a single win against a ranked opponent this year, and they were housed at home by New Mexico State in their penultimate game of the regular season.

Payton Thorne

Nov 25, 2023; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Auburn Tigers quarterback Payton Thorne (1) passing against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the first quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

They’re also going to be missing three defensive starters due to opt-outs, and while their offense is basically intact, it’s simply not very good. Auburn ranked just 95th out of 133 teams in yards per game against FBS opponents this season.

Maryland played significantly tougher games this year against Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State, and they were really only embarrassed in one of them. The Terrapins' other two losses were both by less than a TD, so this team has gone toe-to-toe with basically every opponent this season. Even without their starting QB, Maryland should be able to cover the spread against an Auburn team at less than full strength.

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Michigan -1.5 vs. Alabama (-110, BetMGM)

This is the big one. Michigan vs. Alabama. Jim Harbaugh vs. Nick Saban. In college football, matchups don't get much better than this.

These teams arrived here in vastly different ways. Michigan has been an absolute juggernaut this season, having steamrolled their way to an undefeated season and Big 10 championship. On the other hand, Alabama was basically written off after losing early in the year to Texas, but they rebounded to secure another SEC Championship. The Crimson Tide needed every last week to punch their ticket, but Saban & Co. got here in the end.

The public unsurprisingly likes Alabama in this spot. They have a proven track record of winning National Championships, and Saban is considered arguably the greatest college coach in history. For most, grabbing them as underdogs is simply too tempting to pass up.

However, the pros are siding with the Maize and Blue. What Michigan did in the early part of the season was nothing short of dominant.

The Wolverines allowed 10 points or fewer in each of their first eight games, and they also averaged over 40 points per game on offense over that span. They weren’t quite as dominant down the stretch, but Michigan still managed to win the rest of their games by at least six points. In short, no one has really come close to beating them all season.

The same cannot be said for Alabama. They lost to Texas, and they should’ve lost to Auburn in the final week of the regular season. If not for a miracle 4th-and-31 conversion, Alabama never would’ve had a chance to beat Georgia and change the narrative.

Bama also barely escaped with a three-point win over Arkansas and a six-point win over Texas A&M in a year where the SEC wasn’t as good as usual. They had just four regular season games against ranked opponents, and none of those opponents were ranked in the top-10.

Ultimately, Alabama’s entire 2023 resume is reliant on having beaten Georgia. It was undoubtedly an impressive win, but I’m not willing to overlook an entire season of dominance from Michigan. The Wolverines are the better team by far, and I expect them to win this contest.

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