We’ve officially made it to Week 12 of the college football season, which means that there are just two full Saturdays left of CFB action. After that, we’re on to the conference championships, the Army-Navy game, and then bowl season.
The remaining games will have a big say in who eventually makes it to the College Football Playoffs. There are still five undefeated teams, but two of them (Michigan and Ohio State) still have a head-to-head game left on the schedule. Other one-loss teams like Oregon, Texas, and Alabama will be hoping that some of the remaining undefeated teams will slip up and allow them to crash the party.
We have some big games on the docket for Week 12, including four matchups between ranked opponents. That includes No. 1 Georgia traveling to Knoxville for a matchup with Tennessee, and Washington has a huge showdown with Oregon State in Corvallis.
Let’s dive into five of my favorite bets for Saturday.
Oregon State -2.5 vs. Washington (-110, BetMGM)
It might feel weird to see Washington listed as an underdog, but the Huskies are not quite as good as their record might suggest. They’ve yet to lose a game this season, but they’ve had a number of close calls.
Washington had one-score wins over Arizona, Oregon, Arizona State, and Utah, and their wins against Stanford and USC were by 10 points or fewer. In fact, the Huskies haven't won a game by more than 10 points since mid-September against Michigan State.
Meanwhile, Oregon State has just two losses on the year. One was a three-point road loss against Arizona, and the other was a three-point road loss to Washington State. They’re also a perfect 5-0 in Corvallis this season with all five wins having been by at least 12 points.
Nov 11, 2023; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Oregon State Beavers running back Damien Martinez (6) runs with the ball for a touchdown during the first half against the Stanford Cardinal at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
This matchup also sets up perfectly for Oregon State. They rely on a strong rushing attack bolstered by one of the best offensive lines in the country. They currently rank second in rushing success rate nationally while Washington's defense ranks in the bottom six against the run in stuff rate, adjusted yards, and success rate allowed.
On the other side, Washington is likely also going to find some success on offense in this game. Michael Penix Jr. trails only Bo Nix in Heisman odds, and the Huskies currently rank fifth in the country in points per game.
However, Oregon’s State’s offense is nearly as good, and they’re far better defensively. They should be able to come up with more stops and end Washington’s undefeated season.
The sharps have been all over the Beavers in this matchup, and it wouldn’t shock me if this line were to get up to 3.0 before kickoff. The best price on Oregon State currently is -2.5, and I’m locking that in while I still can.
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Miami +1.5 vs. Louisville (-120, FanDuel)
While I think Washington is overvalued, they’re still at least a very good team. I can’t say the same about Louisville. Even though the Cardinals are 9-1 and the No. 10 team in the country, they’ve benefitted from an extremely favorable schedule this season.
Only two of their opponents have been ranked, and both of Louisville's wins against those teams came with favorable circumstances. Their matchup against Notre Dame came after the Irish had to play Ohio State and Duke the previous two weeks, and Louisville's matchup against Duke came with the Blue Devils’ QB at less than full strength.
Louisville will also have to take to the road after having played in three straight home games. Their last matchup outside of Kentucky was against Pittsburgh, which they lost by 17 points, and the Cardinals' only other road games this season have been a three-point win over NC State and a five-point win over Georgia Tech.
Miami hasn’t had the best season, but they’re better than their 6-4 record indicates. Two of their losses are a direct result of bad coaching from Mario Cristobal. Cristobal is a major concern if this game is close late – it almost seems like he’s making the wrong decisions on purpose at some points – but these two teams are not that far apart from a pure talent standpoint.
All the pressure is on Louisville in this matchup, as they need a win to keep their bowl-game hopes alive. That should allow the Hurricanes to play free and easy, just like they did in last week’s near-upset of Florida State. They actually outgained FSU in that contest even though they ultimately came up short. I like Miami's chances to cover at home against Louisville.
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Washington State -4.0 vs. Colorado (-110, DraftKings)
I tried fading Colorado last week with Arizona, and while they ultimately secured the win in Boulder, they failed to cover the 10-point spread. That said, I’m going right back to the well in Week 12.
While the Buffalos had home-field advantage last week, they’re going to be on the road against Washington State. The Cougars have lost six straight games, but they’ve had some really close calls in that stretch. Each of their past two losses has come by a field goal, and they managed to keep things competitive on the road at Oregon and UCLA as well.
That sets up an interesting buy-low scenario against Colorado. Teams on a losing streak of at least six games have generally held their own as favorites, having posted a record of 45-43-4 ATS since 2005. That’s nothing to get excited about, but it at least provides some reason for optimism.
Nov 11, 2023; Berkeley, California, USA; Washington State Cougars quarterback Cameron Ward (1) throws a touchdown pass against California Golden Bears defensive back Kaylin Moore (4) during the fourth quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Offensively, Washington State is third in the Pac-12 in passing yards per game, and QB Cameron Ward has racked up 3,138 yards and 20 TDs to just five INTs. He’s also added another six scores on the ground, so Ward is more than capable of putting points on the scoreboard.
Washington State did just that in their last game, scoring 39 points while outgaining Cal by 134 yards. The Cougars only lost due to turnovers, as they fumbled four times and lost three of them.
With some better luck, I like the Cougars to end their losing streak at home on Saturday. The public unsurprisingly likes Coach Prime in this spot, but the sharps are seeing some value with Washington State.
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Arizona +1.5 vs. Utah (-118, FanDuel)
Arizona remains one of the most undervalued teams in the country. Even though they failed to cover last week, they’re still 7-2 ATS so far this season. The Wildcats are 7-3 straight up, but all three losses have been defensible: a seven-point road loss to Mississippi State, a seven-point home loss to Washington, and a two-point road loss to USC.
Utah has also had a solid season, but their wins have felt more fluky. Not only have the Utes benefitted from a favorable schedule, but they’re also dealing with some QB issues without Cam Rising. Bryson Barnes has averaged just 6.1 adjusted yards per attempt with 10 TDs to seven INTs, so he’s a major question mark at the most important position in football.
When Utah has had to face good teams this season, they’ve also largely come up short. They lost by two TDs on the road at Oregon State and by seven points on the road at Washington, and Utah was even embarrassed by 29 points at home against Oregon.
With Arizona at home, I think they actually deserve to be favorites this week, so I'm more than happy to grab them as small underdogs.
Auburn -23.5 vs. New Mexico State (-115, BetMGM)
New Mexico State has already secured a bowl bid and a spot in the Conference USA championship game. With that in mind, they really have nothing to play for in this matchup. With QB Diego Pavia currently questionable with an injury, don’t be surprised if the coaching staff errs on the side of caution.
Even if Pavia does suit up, I question whether New Mexico State can keep up with a legitimate opponent. Even though they have eight wins on the season, they’ve faced one of the easiest schedules in recent memory.
Aggie quarterback Diego Pavia runs the ball during a NMSU football game on Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2023, at the Aggies Memorial Stadium. Photo Credit: Meg Potter/Sun-News / USA TODAY NETWORK
Jeff Sagarin has the Aggies as having played the 150th toughest schedule in college football this season, easily the lowest mark among FBS squads. Additionally, he ranks New Mexico State as just the 108th-best team overall while Auburn checks in at 28th.
Finally, Hugh Freeze has historically been a master at covering large spreads. He’s 26-12-1 ATS when laying more than two TDs against an FBS opponent, making him the most profitable coach since 2005 in that split per the Action Network.
