Freedman's Best Bets. Top Picks Against The Spread For NFL Week 17.

Since Thanksgiving, I’ve seen the spread board pretty well. Over the past five weeks, I’m 21-9 ATS (+10.1 units) with no week below .500.

I don’t know if I’ll be able to keep that up, but it’s nice not to be a total travesty for the time being.

Reminder: Here’s what you’re getting with this piece.

1. My projected spreads for each game (as of Wed. morning).
2. Notes on my QB value chart (as of Wed. morning).
3. Brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a few short paragraphs on each bet).
4. Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).
5. A few general thoughts on candidates for picks contests.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Freedman’s Week 17 Projections Against the Spread

I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive. 

The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs. It’s more measured and presentable — and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 17, ordered according to kickoff time.

Projections and consensus odds as of Wed. 12/27 at 8:30 am ET. “Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.

Freedman’s Week 17 QB Value Chart

Here are some notes on my updated QB value chart, which directly compares the ATS value of the starter to his backup. In creating this chart, I’ve relied partially on the work of Ben Fawkes and Robby Greer.

Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) has been battling injuries for awhile. This week it’s an AC joint issue. Last week it was a concussion. Before that it was an ankle. Over the past few weeks, the injured version of Lawrence hasn’t played well (5.0 AY/A). As a result, the dropoff from Lawrence to backup C.J. Beathard continues to diminish. I now have it at only -3.8.

With his 7.5 AY/A in relief of injured starter Justin Herbert (finger, IR), No. 2 QB Easton Stick has been surprisingly “not terrible.” I have him as +3.4 ahead of No. 3 QB Will Grier. Stick might actually be a competent NFL backup.

Brock Purdy had maybe the worst performance of his life on Christmas night. Last week, I had him as a +3.6 upgrade over Sam Darnold. Now, that number is +2.9. That’s a large move for just one game of data.

Joe Flacco continues to air it out (1,307 yards, 10 TDs passing in four starts). If not for Damar Hamlin (-380, FanDuel), Flacco would be a strong option for Comeback Player of the Year (+400, DraftKings). I have him as a +2.7 upgrade over P.J. Walker.

I now have Davis Mills (instead of Case Keenum) as the direct backup behind C.J. Stroud (concussion), not that it matters much. Relative to Stroud (Mills -2.0) and Keenum (-2.1) are largely interchangeable, and hopefully Stroud will be able to return to action before the season ends.

The Commanders have officially benched Sam Howell in favor of Jacoby Brissett. Given that Howell was benched midgame two weeks in a row and markedly outplayed by Brissett (12.3 AY/A), it's unsurprising that the veteran will assume the starter role for the final two weeks. Brissett is +1.9 relative to Howell.

Similarly, Tyrod Taylor will start ahead of the benched Tommy DeVito. I have Taylor projected as a +1.2 upgrade — but he could be significantly more than that.

Bailey Zappe continues to move ahead of Mac Jones with tolerable performances. Last week, he was +0.6 relative to Jones. Now, +0.9. 

Taylor Heinicke (+0.6) last week didn’t turn the ball over, which inherently gives him an edge over the benched Desmond Ridder. I doubt we see Ridder again this season.

Kenny Pickett (ankle) seems likely to miss another game, and last week Mason Rudolph looked good (12.2 AY/A) in his place. I now have Pickett as just a hair (+0.1) ahead of Rudolph, who has a non-zero chance to steal Pickett’s job — at least for the short term — with another strong performance.

Will Levis and Ryan Tannehill each look their best whenever the other guy is playing. Last week, Tannehill was a +1.0 upgrade on Levis. This week, +0.7.

Last week, Aidan O’Connell was 9-of-21 passing for just 62 yards. He’s a notable -1.6 downgrade on the benched Jimmy Garoppolo.

Coming off the best game of his young career (9.8 AY/A), Bryce Young is now just … checks notes … a -2.3 downgrade relative to Andy Dalton.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 17 Bets

Here are my favorite ATS bets currently. For all the bets I’ve made for the week, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.

• Browns -7 vs. Jets (-110, Caesars)
• Bills -12 vs. Patriots (-110, BetMGM)
• Rams -5.5 at Giants (-110, Circa)

Browns -7 vs. Jets (-110, Caesars)

Browns QB Joe Flacco is one of the few QBs who actually look like QBs this year. He’s willing to throw the ball downfield, ranking No. 2 in intended air yards per attempt (9.8) and No. 3 in completed air yards per attempt (4.6).

He’s not perfect with his seven INTs — he has at least one turnover in each start — but a few of those were not his fault, and he has made up for them with 1,307 yards and 10 TDs passing in four games.

Going against his former team in a #RevengeGame, Flacco probably knows the Jets defense better than most QBs, and the short rest with travel will limit the number of wrinkles Jets HC Robert Saleh can add to his system.

Jets QB Zack Wilson (concussion) seems likely to miss another game, so we could see backup Trevor Siemian again — and I like the Browns chances of exploiting him with the league’s best defense (-0.166 EPA, No. 1, per RBs Don’t Matter).

When both teams are playing on short rest, TNF home favorites are 70-58-2 ATS (6.4% ROI, per Action Network). The circumstances simply slew toward the team that is better and doesn’t need to travel.

• Projection: -7.75
• Original Bet: -6.5 (-112)
• Cutoff: -7 (-120)

You can tail the Browns at Caesars, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you sign up below!

Bills -12 vs. Patriots (-110, BetMGM)

I liked the Bills last week as big favorites and that didn’t work out, but I’m going back to the poisoned well this week and hoping that the dirty water doesn’t kill me.

Including playoffs, Bills QB Josh Allen is 7-3-1 ATS (30.8% ROI) against the Patriots, who have struggled specifically against mobile QBs under HC Bill Belichick.

Dec 23, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) carries the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers in the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

On the one hand, Belichick is 29-19-2 ATS (17.6% ROI) as a road dog in the regular season going back to 2003 (as far back as the Action Network database goes).

On the other hand, Belichick as a road dog is just 8-11 ATS (19.6% ROI) in the post-Tom Brady era (since 2020). Without a Hall-of-Fame QB, the magic is gone.

The Bills have averaged 28.2 points since promoting QBs coach Joe Brady to playcaller in Week 11, and the defense has allowed just 16.3 points per game since the Week 13 bye.

Against running QBs, the Patriots have a diminished defensive edge, and with QB Bailey Zappe they have no offensive edge at all.

• Projection: -13.1
• Original Bet: -12 (-110)
• Cutoff: -12.5 (-110)

You can tail the Bills at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up below!

Rams -5.5 at Giants (-110, Circa)

Even with veteran QB Tyrod Taylor starting instead of undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito, I prefer the Rams.

Since the return of RB Kyren Williams in Week 12, the Rams have averaged 32.4 points and scored at least 28 points in all five games — despite playing the Browns, Ravens and Saints in that span.

They have a legitimate top-five offense anchored by QB Matthew Stafford and WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and their defense is respectably mediocre (-0.016 EPA, No. 18).

Giants HC Brian Daboll is 17-10-1 ATS (19.8% ROI) as an underdog and 7-2-1 ATS (43.6% ROI) with QBs who aren’t Daniel Jones, but the Giants are No. 30 in defensive SR (45.5%). I doubt they’ll be able to slow the Rams, and they certainly don’t have the offense to keep pace.

• Projection: -7.3
• Original Bet: -6 (-110)
• Cutoff: -6.5 (-110)

Week 17 Games That Have My Attention

Lions +6 at Cowboys

Under HC Dan Campbell, the Lions are 21-10 ATS (29.7%) as underdogs. If this number gets longer, I’ll be tempted.

Dolphins +3.5 at Ravens

I love QB Lamar Jackson — but he hasn’t had an MVP-caliber season, and he’s just 14-23 ATS (-26.1% ROI) as a home favorite for his career.

Saints +3 at Buccaneers

I can’t get out of my head this fact: QB Baker Mayfield as a favorite is 13-25-1 ATS (-32.2% ROI). If I bet this, I almost certainly won’t be on the Buccaneers.

Titans +3.5 at Texans

I see value on the Titans right now — but that’s assuming that Texans QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) is out. The injury report will be important for this game.

Freedman’s Week 17 Contest Picks

Various sportsbooks (such as the SuperBook, Circa and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

I’m participating in the micro $5 contest at DraftKings, and here’s my record.

• Week 16: Skip Week
• 2023: 50-25
• Standings: No. 9 of 13,503

This is the final week of the contest, and I’m two picks out of first place (52-23). I wasn’t expecting to make up ground last week, which I used as my skip week, but evidently a lot of people struggled — and here we are.

Most of the time, I don’t utilize too much game theory when making my picks, but this week I might.

Based on the current consensus odds and my projections, here are a few general thoughts on the DraftKings contest for Week 17.

Note: Some of my thoughts will probably change based on line movement, news, and additional research.

• The QB uncertainty with several teams (Jaguars, Giants, Titans, Texans) could create some easy line value … which might be sharp to fade?
• Cowboys-Lions and Ravens-Dolphins will be popular given the high-leverage and -profile nature of the matchups.
• Most underdogs of at least +3 (Raiders, Falcons, Saints, Titans, Steelers, Packers) could have minimal exposure in the contest.
• Most favorites of no more than -3 (Colts, Bears, Buccaneers, Vikings) will probably have low pick rates.

Abbreviations

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.