Freedman's Best Bets. Top Picks Against The Spread For NFL Week 7.

Well … when I start winning some spread bets, I’ll allow myself the privilege of writing an intro.

Reminder: Here’s what you’re getting with this piece.

1. My projected spreads for each game (as of Wednesday morning).
2. A list of my favorite spread bets for the week (as of writing).
3. Brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a few short paragraphs on each bet).
4. Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).
5. A few general thoughts on candidates for picks contests.

Week 6 Record

• Best Bets: 0-3 ATS (-3 units) … pain.
• DraftKings Contest Picks: 1-4 … not great.

Last week in the contest I won with MIN -2.5.

I lost with 49ers -5.5, Patriots +3.5, Buccaneers +3.5 and Eagles -6.5.

CLV? More like “cleaver,” am I right?

Ugh. My bad. I don’t deserve to get to make even bad jokes.

In positive news, last week was my best prop betting week of the season, so … it’s not all terrible?

Year-to-Date Record

• Best Bets: 7-11 ATS (-4.73 units)
• DraftKings Contest Picks: 19-11

Abbreviations

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Freedman’s Week 7 Projections Against the Spread

I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive. 

The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs. It’s more measured and presentable — and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 6, ordered according to kickoff time.

Projections and consensus odds as of Wed. 10/18 at 6 am ET. “Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 7 Bets

We have a lot of QB injuries and uncertainty in this slate, so some sides I might bet and ultimately might like more than these I’m waiting on right now. I’ll talk about them in the “Games That Have My Attention” section.

That said, here are my favorite bets currently, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.

• Falcons +3 at Buccaneers (-115, PointsBet)
• Steelers +3 at Rams (-105, BetMGM)
• Dolphins +2.5 at Eagles (-110, PointsBet)

Three road underdogs, what could go wrong?

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Falcons +3 at Buccaneers (-115, PointsBet)

I hate this bet. It’s disgusting. The Falcons are 1-5 ATS (-68.2% ROI, per Action Network).

But my power ratings have these two teams as close to even — other ratings sets do as well — and the Buccaneers have a modest-at-best home-field advantage. 

Plus, home-field advantage is diminished in divisional games.

The Falcons offense (5.0 yards per play, No. 18) and the Buccaneers defense (5.1, No. 14) are both mediocre — but the Falcons defense (4.7, No. 5) has been good this year, and the Buccaneers offense (4.8, No. 25) has been just a step above bad.

This line is +2.5 at every other book except for PointsBet right now, and at that number I like the Falcons as a teaser leg at +8.5.

• Original Bet: +3 (-115)
• Projection: +1.4
• Cutoff: +3 (-120)

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Steelers +3 at Rams (-110, BetMGM)

Steelers QB Kenny Pickett is No. 33 in the league in composite EPA + CPOE (-0.003, per RBs Don’t Matter) — and that number simply must regress positively, because he’s not worse than Mac Jones, Zach Wilson and Desmond Ridder, right? RIGHT???

Oct 8, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) looks for a receiver against the Baltimore Ravens during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

I expect the Steelers offense to be improved coming out of the bye, and I also anticipate that they’ll get back LT Dan Moore (knee), RG James Daniels (groin) and TE Pat Freiermuth (concussion), all of whom were out in Week 5. And they might even get back WR Diontae Johnson (hamstring, IR).

This is a sell-high spot on the Rams, who are 4-1-1 ATS (43.3% ROI) and have minimal home-field advantage.

• Original Bet: +3.5 (-110)
• Projection: +2
• Cutoff: +3 (-120)

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Dolphins +2.5 at Eagles (-110, PointsBet)

The Dolphins are No. 1 in offensive EPA (0.251), SR (53.8%) and yards per play (8.0). They have been especially strong in the passing game, as QB Tua Tagovailoa is No. 1 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.209), AY/A (9.5) and MVP odds (+350 consensus).

And now look at the Eagles secondary.

• CBs Avonte Maddox (pectoral, IR) and Zech McPhearson (Achilles, IR) and SS Justin Evans (neck, IR) are out.
• CB Darius Slay (knee) and S Sydney Brown (hamstring) both missed last week.
• CBs Bradley Roby (shoulder) and Eli Ricks (knee) and FS Reed Blankenship (ribs) exited Week 6 early with injuries.

If the injury situation for the Eagles breaks exactly the wrong way, they could be without four starters and four backups in the secondary.

And even if the injury situation goes well for the Eagles they will likely have on the field some guys who are at far less than 100% and haven’t practiced consistently for weeks.

• Original Bet: +2.5 (-110)
• Projection: +0.5
• Cutoff: +1.5 (-110)

Week 7 Games That Have My Attention

Jaguars +1.5 at Saints (-105, BetMGM)

It looks like Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (knee) is trending in the right direction. If he plays, I’d expect this line to move toward the Jags (obviously) — but if it doesn’t then I’d like them at the current number.

Lions +3 at Ravens (-110, BetMGM)

Oh, baby. I am tempted. Lions HC Dan Campbell as a road underdog is 11-6 ATS (23.3% ROI). Road underdogs against Ravens QB Lamar Jackson are 21-11 ATS (26.8% ROI).

Sometimes 1+1 = +3.

Colts +2.5 vs. Browns (-105, FanDuel)

Just waiting to see what happens with Browns QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder).

Chiefs -5.5 vs. Chargers (-110, BetMGM)

Chargers QB Justin Herbert against the Chiefs is a heroic 5-1 ATS (65.4% ROI). But I think the market is too low on the Chiefs, who are — I feel like it’s ridiculous that I need to say this — still the best team in the NFL.

If this number moves more toward the Chargers, I’ll consider a position on the Chiefs.

Broncos +1 vs. Packers (-110, DraftKings)

It’s gross, but who are the Packers to be favored on the road against anyone?

Also, even though they’re coming off their bye, the Packers have only a three-day rest advantage (13 days vs. 10) over the Broncos — so the impact of their bye is greatly diminished.

Vikings +7 vs. 49ers (-115, PointsBet)

This is the second road game in a row for the 49ers, who are dealing with injuries to LT Trent Williams (ankle), RB Christian McCaffrey (oblique) and WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder).

The Vikings have been the league’s unluckiest team this season.

Freedman’s Week 7 Contest Picks

Various sportsbooks (such as the SuperBook, Circa and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

Based on the current consensus odds and my projections, here are a few general thoughts on the DraftKings contest.

Note: Some of my thoughts will probably change based on line movement, news and additional research.

• I expect some of the longer underdogs (Patriots, Cardinals, Vikings) to have minimal exposure in the contest — especially the Patriots and Cardinals, who lost and failed to cover last week.
• I imagine that both the Dolphins and Eagles will be popular selections, given that their game is in primetime and should be dynamic.
• I think the QB injury situations could result in some contest lines that end up way off from the closing lines in the market, and that could drive a lot investment.

Previous Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.