I'll be honest: Longshots aren't my thing.

Betting longshots successfully often requires one to leverage the imagination and entertain the notion that the highly improbable is not actually improbable but rather positively predestined.

Where others see clouds in the sky, the winning longshot bettor sees kingdoms.

But that's not me — because I'm a human wet blanket. When I look in the sky I don't see clouds. Instead, I see something that might indicate a 40% chance of rain.

In general, I prefer to invest in bets that sportsbooks price as 50/50 propositions or thereabouts.

That said, maybe the best bet I've ever made was Lamar Jackson to win MVP at +8000 in 2019, so I see the value of placing occasional longshots that feel mispriced … and it just so happens that I think there are three such bets available now.

Here they are.

  • Chargers to Win Super Bowl: +4500 (DraftKings)
  • Tua Tagovailoa to Win MVP: +2500 (DraftKings)
  • Tank Dell to Lead NFL in Receiving Yards: +6500 (FanDuel)

Chargers to Win Super Bowl: +4500 (DraftKings)

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning knows football — and he thinks Chargers QB Justin Herbert is a top-five player at the position.

Conservatively, I'd say he's top-eight.

Additionally, I'd say that Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh is a top-eight coach, based on his strong overperformance with the 49ers (42-27-3 against the spread) and successful collegiate record with San Diego (29-6), Stanford (29-21), and Michigan (89-25). It's not a coincidence that he's one of the frontrunners to win Coach of the Year at +800 (DraftKings).

Especially with the 49ers and Michigan, Harbaugh has exhibited the ability to revitalize a team in his first season.

  • 49ers: 6-10 before Harbaugh | 13-3 with Harbaugh
  • Michigan: 5-7 before Harbaugh | 10-3 with Harbaugh

QB and HC are the two most important jobs on a football team, and the Chargers (in my opinion) are one of few franchises ranked in the top quartile at both positions. The combination of Herbert and Harbaugh alone makes the Chargers dangerous.

On top of that, the Chargers will likely have an effective ball-control offense under new OC Greg Roman, who worked as a coordinator for Harbaugh's 49ers. In his three stints as an NFL playcaller, Roman has always overseen an offense top-12 in scoring and top-eight in turnovers.

  • 49ers (2011): 380 points (No. 11) | 10 turnovers (No. 1)
  • Bills (2015): 379 points (No. 12) | 19 turnovers (No. 8)
  • Ravens (2019): 531 points (No. 1) | 15 turnovers (No. 3)

As for the defense, that unit has been outside the top 20 in scoring in each of the past four years (23, 29, 21, 24), but a change at coordinator could make a difference, and that side of the ball still has talent with EDGEs Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, CB Asante Samuel., and S Derwin James.

The Chargers have (by my calculations) one of the easiest potential paths to the postseason, respectively ranking Nos. 1 & 2 in opponent projected points scored and allowed.

The Broncos (5.5 win total) and Raiders (6.5) are both likely to be bottom-feeding teams this year, and the Chargers with Herbert have historically played the Chiefs close (5-2 ATS). If they can sweep the Broncos and Raiders and steal a game from the Chiefs, the Chargers could use their 5-1 divisional record to catapult themselves into the playoffs — and once in the postseason a Harbaugh-led team could be dangerous.

Are the Chargers actually going to win the Super Bowl? Almost certainly not.

But at +4500, they have a 2.17% implied probability (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), and I think their true probability is probably closer to 3% (+3233), maybe 3.5% (+2757).

If the Chargers make the postseason, they will be a nice asset in the portfolio at +4500.

Tua Tagovailoa to Win MVP: +2500 (DraftKings)

Few people remember this, but entering the Week 17 Ravens-Dolphins matchup, QB Tua Tagovailoa was No. 3 in MVP odds (+900), behind only QB Lamar Jackson (-160) and RB Christian McCaffrey (+400) — but CMC was never a real candidate for the award: His odds were that short almost by default.

And that means that Week 17 was essentially an MVP showdown between Jackson and Tagovailoa.

The Ravens enjoyed a 56-19 victory over the Dolphins as Jackson secured his second MVP — but if the Dolphins had won that game they would've secured the AFC East and had the inside track to the No. 1 seed in the AFC with their head-to-head tiebreaker over the Ravens.

And that likely would've made Tagovailoa the MVP frontrunner entering the final week of the season. He was close to winning the award.

And now the market says he has only a 3.85% chance to win MVP this year. That's not right.

He led the league last year with 4,624 yards passing, he has one of the NFL's most innovative offensive playcallers in HC Mike McDaniel, and he has a bevy of playmaking offensive weapons in WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and RBs De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert.

If Tagovailoa stays healthy, I like his chances to be live for the award entering the final month.

Tank Dell to Lead NFL in Receiving Yards: +10000 (BetRivers)

If we look at the games in which WR Tank Dell played at least half the snaps — so removing his NFL debut in Week 1 and his injury-shortened appearances in Weeks 5 & 13 — Dell averaged 77.3 yards receiving per game with a smoking 9.2 yards per target as a rookie.

That comes out to a pace of 1,313.3 yards — and he could be even better in his second season.

In the seven games last year in which both players had a 50% snap rate, Dell and teammate WR Nico Collins (then in his third season) were comparably productive and involved in the offense.

  • Tank Dell (With Collins): 80.3 yards per game | 7.6 targets per game
  • Nico Collins (With Dell): 85.9 yards per game | 7.4 targets per game

There's a real chance that Dell will outproduce Collins this year — and the best number available for Collins in this market is +3700 (FanDuel).

Given that Texans QB C.J. Stroud is the frontrunner to lead the league in passing yards (+650, FanDuel), it makes sense that one of his pass catchers would have a chance to lead the league in receiving, and at cost, I'd rather invest in Dell than Collins.