March Madness Round of 64 Best Bets - Thursday Night Games

Thursday’s Round of 64 best bets continue into the night slate with eight more games in store starting at 5:50 pm EST.

The slate brings plenty of intrigue as McNeese State and Samford drew public attention as possible Cinderella targets heading into tournament play, as well as big names like Tennessee who have been prone to stumbling early in the bracket.

Be sure to check back for Friday’s best bets as that will be broken into a day and night slate as well.

Round of 64 Best Bets for Thursday Night Games

(13) Samford vs. (4) Kansas (-6.5) (-115, DraftKings)

Speaking of Samford, their matchup kicks off the best bets for the night slate as they look to take advantage of a hobbled Kansas Jayhawk squad that is dealing with injuries. Hunter Dickinson is still questionable while Kevin McCullar Jr has already been listed as out for the remainder of the tournament.

The lingering injury status of the Jayhawks has turned bettors' attention toward betting Samford, taking the Bulldogs down from +9.5 to as low as +6.5. While backing a Jayhawks squad that looked as bad as they did since sustaining their injuries is unsettling, the line movement has gone too far and now puts Kansas in an intriguing spot as a -6.5 favorite.

Other bettors agree, bouncing the line back to -7 in most shops. The harsh reality for Samford is that the Jayhawks have too much secondary talent for the Bulldogs to compete with, especially if Dickinson plays as he is expected to give it a go. That leaves Kansas with a go-to low post presence, freeing up other areas of the court for the Jayhawks guards to exploit.

Dickinson is a nightmare matchup for Samford, let alone most teams, as he can impose his height advantage on the block as well as stretch out the defense with a respectable jumper. Losing McCullar may hurt their ball movement, but spacing should not be an issue if Dickinson gets it going early on and commands defensive attention.

Samford’s style of play is also less than ideal for an upset profile as they like to play at a fast pace which increases the number of offensive possessions. Samford has also run lucky throughout the year, ranking ninth in Luck per Kenpom. Expect regression back toward the mean, especially with the Jayhawks' ability to generate consistently high-quality looks through Dickinson when on offense.

(14) Oakland vs. (3) Kentucky (-13.5) (-110, DraftKings)

Kentucky is another popular fade target heading into March Madness as they have been the definition of a roller coaster throughout the year. At most times their defense has failed to show up, relying too heavily on their offense to squeak out underwhelming wins. Their Kenpom metrics reflect that notion, ranking fifth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) and 108th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD).

Should a team want to knock Kentucky out early, then they need to be able to slow the game to a halt and minimize the number of possessions Kentucky gets in hopes that they run cold. While Oakland certainly plays at the pace to satisfy that belief, ranked 232nd in Tempo, their own defensive scheme makes them an unappealing target.

Oakland primarily runs a zone defense, relying on their ability to stretch out and dare opposing teams to beat them with jump shots. While that has worked for slower and less athletic competition in a smaller conference, Kentucky is too fast and far too athletic for them to contain. Especially with the Wildcats fielding an exceptional shooting team, having at minimum two pure shooters on the court at all times.

Expect Kentucky to boat race the Golden Grizzlies, as well as finding consistent success in the off chance they are halted into a halfcourt set. Oakland will also struggle to keep up with the scoring pace to threaten the spread, ranking 135th in AdjO and at a methodical pace. Kentucky may be a fade target later in the tournament against a stiffer man defense, but they are one of my favorite bets for Thursday’s night slate.

(12) McNeese State (+6.5) vs. (5) Gonzaga (-110, Caesars)

Like Samford, McNeese State is also another potential Cinderella target hedging into tournament play. While I made a case to fade Samford earlier in this piece, I am buying in on the Cowboys' chances of getting the upset win. Or in this case, at least cover the spread.

Gonzaga has had their fair share of ups and downs throughout the year, looking like a potential regression candidate and a potential national contender per Kenpom all in the same year. Their offense is fast and efficient as usual, yet their defense has steadily declined from years past. A big reason for their regression is their inability to defend the perimeter, allowing opposing offenses to shoot 34% from deep.

To make matters worse, their perimeter defense has only dropped off even further in their most recent performances, allowing opposing teams to shoot an astronomical 39.1% from deep in their last three games. That spells potential disaster against a McNeese State offense that is lethal from deep, averaging 39.4% from deep and 44.7% in their last three contests.

Better yet, the Cowboys fit the mold for an upset contender as they deal their damage at a slow pace. Their ability to control the pace and maximize their scoring chances with high-quality threes will put serious pressure on the Zags to keep within scoring pace on minimal opportunities. We saw how ugly Gonzaga’s offense can look when they can not connect from deep, losing in the WCC Conference Championship after shooting a lowly 18.2%.

(11) North Carolina State (+5.5) vs. (6) Texas Tech (-110, DraftKings)

North Carolina State captivated the nation with their run in the ACC Conference Championship, thwarting the one-seed North Carolina Tar Heels and cashing 100-1 pre-tourney tickets in the process. Big man DJ Burns garners a lot of attention and now has an opportunity to show out against a hobbled Texas Tech squad that may be without Warren Washington as he is currently listed as questionable.

With Washington being less than 100%, let alone potentially out, North Carolina State will have a massive advantage in the interior to help set up the rest of their offense. Burns is nearly impossible to stop on his backdowns, abusing smaller defenders for high-quality looks at the rim. Should he get to work early, that forces the Red Raiders to throw more doubles and leaves them exposed elsewhere for the Wolfpack guards to exploit.

While the Wolfpack's chances of making a run in this tournament are slim, they are at least able to keep up their white-hot momentum off the back of loveable big man DJ Burns in this matchup. Some sportsbooks have already dipped down to +4.5 as of writing and I would also consider a sprinkle on the Wolfpacks moneyline should Washington be ruled out.