Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
The Rays will enter play on Friday night playing to the tune of a 62-43 record, trailing only the Baltimore Orioles (62-40) in the AL standings.
After a historic start to the season when they tied the MLB record for most consecutive wins to begin a year (13), the Rays have come back to Earth, and are now sitting just six games above .500 since their first loss.
Even so, the Rays currently hold the top seed in the Wildcard Standings, with Houston trailing them by 3.5 games.
The Rays will send their best arm to the bump tonight in the form of Shan McClanahan, who's posted an ERA of 2.89 and a record of 11-1.
On the flip side of this game, the Astros enter play on Friday night, just two games behind the Rangers in the AL West. Houston has been playing some great baseball as of late, going 7-3 over their last 10 games while holding onto the second Wild Card position, leading the Blue Jays by one game and the Red Sox by 2.5 games.
Kyle Tucker has been the star of this Houston Astros lineup. Tucker was voted into the all-star game, and for a good reason. He leads the team in batting average, home runs, runs batted in, stolen bases, runs created, and isolated power.
If it was not for Shohei Ohtani, you could make the case that Tucker would win the AL MVP.
The Astros got more good news this week when it was announced that two of the best hitters over the last few seasons, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, would be returning to the lineup.
This success also comes with Altuve and Alex Bregman having down years, as Bregman is batting .256 on the campaign, while Altuve is batting just .258.
The scary thing about that is that these two guys will eventually figure things out and return to form. The Astros have survived their down years so far, and when they heat up, this will be one of the best teams in baseball again.
Like Bregman and Altuve, another pair of stars have struggled this season.
Former MVP Jose Abreu was a big signing in the off-season for the Astros, and he has underperformed to this stage in the season. Abreu is hitting .241 on the year compared to his lifetime average of .288.
Jeremy Pena was a breakout star for the Astros a season ago and was a key part of their world series run. Pena has hit a sophomore slump this season, however, batting just .235 compared to .253 a season ago.
Despite all of this, the Astros are ranked 12th in baseball in runs per game (4.70) and have finished top-10 in runs per game every year since 2017 outside of once (2020).
Pick: Astros/Rays F5 Under (4.5 -115, DraftKings)
Two of the better arms in the American League will be on the mound today, and the numbers would suggest that the under is a good look tonight.
McClanahan has been lights out for most of the season, and tonight we get to back McClanahan following his worst start. This is a guy that is too talented to go out and struggle again tonight.
McClanahan is unbeaten this season at home (5-0), posting an ERA of 2.61 at home compared to 3.15 on the road.
The Astros have had a down year from an offensive standpoint, but they have particularly struggled early in games as they rank 15th in runs per game in the first five innings (2.59).
They'll be sending Dominican-born righty Cristian Javier to the bump tonight, who's posted a 7-2 record with a 4.32 ERA this season.
Javier's numbers do not reflect his season, however, as he went through a rough patch allowing eighteen runs in 10.2 innings of work.
Outside of that rough patch, he has pitched extremely well and has pitched much better as of late, allowing five runs over his last 10.2 innings.
Javier also has great numbers vs this current Rays lineup, as the Rays are batting just .158 in nineteen at-bats.
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Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres
The Texas Rangers come into their game sitting at the top of the AL West with a record of 60-43, leading the Astros by two games thanks to scoring 5.87 runs per game, the best mark in baseball.
Semien has turned in an excellent season after struggling in 2022, batting .280 on the campaign while hitting 15 home runs and driving 63 runs.
Seager has been the most consistent bat in this Rangers lineup as he is batting a career-best .350. As one of the best players in baseball, the combination of him and Semien has been lethal.
Unfortunately, Seager will miss tonight's game as he is currently on the 10-day DL.
Garcia has been one of the best power hitters in the game, leading the Rangers with 25 home runs and 84 RBIs.
While their bats have been great, pitching has been the Achilles heel of this Rangers team over the years. That said, their pitching is much improved this season, ranking 15th in team ERA (4.19).
On the other side of this game, the Padres have been considered one of the biggest disappointments in baseball.
San Diego will begin play with a record of 49-54, currently 6.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot.
The million-dollar question becomes, what will the Padres do at the deadline?
San Diego has loaded up on superstar talent, but clearly, something is not working this year.
Some believe Juan Soto is the trendy name to be traded next week. Soto has a year and a half left on his contract making the decision tough for the Padres.
Xander Bogaerts was the Padre's big off-season move. The All-Star shortstop has been underwhelming to this stage in the season as he is batting just .265, his worst average since 2014 (.240).
The pitching, however, is not to blame.
The Padres rank second in baseball in team ERA representing (3.78), trailing only the Tampa Bay Rays (3.70).
Tonight the Padres will send one of their best arms to the mound in the form of Joe Musgrove.
Musgrove is 9-3 on the season with an ERA of 3.25 and a WHIP of 1.15.
Pick: San Diego Padres -1 (-120, DraftKings)
The fact that we see the Padres as a heavy favorite is fishy, considering this team enters this series after losing two of three to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The line screams San Diego tonight.
Joe Musgrove has been consistent all season long, and he boasts some strong numbers vs this current Rangers lineup, as Texas is batting just .194 vs. Musgrove in 31 at-bats.
Additionally, Musgrove has been tough at home as opponents are batting just .230 vs. him in Petco Park.
Dane Dunning has been great for the Rangers this season, but he has struggled as of late, allowing 11 runs over his last three starts in 15.2 innings.
The current Padres lineup is batting .355 vs. Dunning in 15 at-bats in a small sample size and despite the down season, Bogaerts has enjoyed success vs. Dunning, going 5-9 (.556) against him.
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