Friday was a solid day for us, going 4-1 on our five plays. The past week has been a rollercoaster, with big swings in both directions. That variance is why I tend to play a bit more conservatively during baseball season, utilizing half-unit wagers instead of full ones. A couple of bad days with full unit wagers can have a negative impact on your mental game, and it’s important to stay in the right mindset and not go on “tilt.”

We’ve got a full day of baseball action on Saturday, with all 30 teams slated to be in action. There are actually two double-headers scheduled, so there are a whopping 17 games to choose from.

Let’s dive into five of my favorite bets for Saturday.

MLB Bets Today – Saturday, April 13

Philadelphia Phillies ML vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-148; FanDuel)

The Pirates have been one of the biggest surprises of the early season, jumping out to a 10-4 record. They dropped the first game of their four-game series vs. the Phillies, but they managed to bounce back in Friday’s contest.

Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, they’re going to be at a massive pitching disadvantage on Saturday. They’ll send Marco Gonzales to the bump, who is past his prime as an MLB pitcher.

On the surface, Gonzales hasn’t been that bad this season. He has a 2.45 ERA, and he’s yet to allow a homer. However, the advanced metrics tell a different story. Gonzales doesn’t strike out many batters – he has a 4.91 K/9 this season – so he relies on limiting the damage on balls in play. That makes his Statcast data extremely important, and opposing batters have had no problem squaring Gonzalez up. He’s allowed a hard-hit rate of 52.9%, which puts him in the bottom nine percent for pitchers this season. His resulting 6.01 xERA suggests he’s been extremely fortunate early in the year.

On the other side, Spencer Turnbull is an undervalued starter. He might sound like a member of the English House of Commons, but the dude can pitch. He’s yet to allow a run in 11 innings this season, and unlike Gonzales, he has the advanced data to back it up. His xERA (2.27), FIP (1.43), and strikeout rate (10.64 K/9) all support the fact that Turnbull is poised for a breakout season.

The Phillies have already moved to -150 or higher at some locations, but you can still grab -148 on FanDuel. I’d play it while you still can.

Cincinnati Reds-Chicago White Sox F5 Under 4.0 (-120; BetMGM)

Pitching might not be the first thing you think of with these two squads. The Reds are known for their young offense, while the White Sox are known for… nothing. However, both of these teams will have promising young starters on the bump on Saturday who should be able to limit the scoring.

The White Sox will turn to Garrett Crochet, who has been their lone bright spot. He’s posted a 2.00 ERA, 1.58 xERA, and 2.53 FIP through his first three outings, and he’s added 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Crochet was a highly-touted prospect, so he has the makings of a future star.

Nick Lodolo will start for the Reds, and he’s had a pretty similar trajectory to Crochet. He was a top-50 prospect per FanGraphs heading into 2022, and he pitched to a 3.66 ERA and 11.41 K/9 in his first professional season. He was limited to just seven starts in 2023 due to injury, but he still possesses the same upside that he did in 2022.

I’m going to leave the bullpens out of the equation and focus on the first five innings. This number has dipped to 3.5 at some locations, so under 4.0 at -120 on BetMGM is pretty appealing.

More MLB Bets for Saturday, April 13

Diamondbacks ML vs. Cardinals (-105) – Kyle Gibson is a pitcher I want to fade whenever the price is reasonable. The Cardinals starter has a 6.23 ERA to start the year, and his advanced metrics are somehow even worse (8.63 xERA, 6.56 FIP). Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks isn’t much better, but getting the DBacks at -105 at home is a decent value.

Giants-Rays F5 Under 4.0 (+100) – This contest features two pitchers who should be able to keep runs off the scoreboard. Logan Webb has been one of the best starters in baseball over the past few years, while Ryan Pepiot could be in that class shortly. Neither pitcher has gotten off to a great start this season, but I’m expecting progression from both players. Pepiot, in particular, has been very unlucky, with his xERA more than 2.5 runs lower than his actual mark.

Garrett Crochet Under 7.5 strikeouts (-155) – We have to lay a bit more juice here than I’d like, but this still grades out as a strong offering. Crochet has great swing-and-miss stuff, but the Reds have the 10th-lowest strikeout rate against southpaws. The Paydirt DFS simulations have Crochet going under 7.5 at an 81.6% clip, with 6.17 strikeouts as his mean outcome.

2024 MLB Bets Record

  • Yesterday: 4-1 (+1.5 units)
  • Season: 30-24 (+0.63 units)

All bets are based on half units unless stated otherwise.

Underdogs are risking a half unit, while favorites are to win a half unit. For an example, check out the free Fantasy Life MLB Bet Tracker.