UPDATE: Christian McCaffrey has been declared inactive for Week 1. The odds have shifted slightly, to +3.5. The total hasn't moved from 43.
NFL Week 1 officially comes to a close on Monday Night Football, with the San Francisco 49ers hosting the New York Jets. The 49ers are listed as 4-point home favorites across most of the industry, with a lone 4.5 currently available on FanDuel. The total on this game sits at 43.0.
These two teams are coming off wildly different campaigns in 2024. The 49ers made it all the way to the Super Bowl, riding the back of one of the best offenses in recent memory. The Jets had their season unofficially end just four plays into Week 1 when Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury. They did their best to survive with their elite defense, but they couldn’t overcome the subpar quarterback play they received all year.
With Rodgers back for Week 1, both of these teams have high expectations once again in 2024. Who will start their season off with a win? Let’s dive in.
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-4.0)—43.0 total
While 2023 was a banner year for the 49ers offense, they still have to answer a few questions this season. The biggest is can Brock Purdy perform in the toughest matchups?
Purdy smashed inferior opponents all last season, but when facing elite defenses, he tended to underperform. Including the playoffs, Purdy only faced five defenses that finished in the top 10 in pass defense EPA last season: the Steelers, Cowboys, Browns, Ravens, and Chiefs. In those five contests, he completed just 59.3% of his passes for 221.4 yards per game. He added just 8 touchdown passes compared to 5 interceptions, so his production trailed off drastically compared to what he did for the rest of the year. If you remove his performance against the Cowboys—252 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 picks—his numbers get even scarier.
Purdy’s performance against the Ravens and Browns is the most concerning. That’s the tier of defense that the Jets were in last year, and the 49ers were unable to hang in either spot. With Brandon Aiyuk reportedly on a pitch count and Christian McCaffrey dealing with an injury out, it would not be a huge shock to see the 49ers struggle more than usual.
On the other side, the 49ers’ once-elite defense regressed toward the middle of the pack last season. They were specifically gashed by the run, ranking 26th in defensive rushing EPA. That’s not great when facing Breece Hall.
It remains to be seen what the Jets’ passing attack will look like with a 40-year-old quarterback, but the talk out of training camp has been extremely positive. Rodgers has reportedly looked just like the Rodgers of old, making throws that other quarterbacks can only dream of.
Ultimately, the Jets are a team that I’m bullish on entering the season, and they match up perfectly with this talented 49ers roster. I think they can cover the spread, and it wouldn’t be a huge shock if they won the game outright.
The Pick: Jets +4.5 (-115; FanDuel)
Player Props for Monday Night Football
Brock Purdy Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120; FanDuel)
This goes hand-in-hand with my play on the Jets. If New York is going to cover the spread, it’s going to have to keep the 49ers’ passing attack out of the end zone.
With a trio of excellent cornerbacks in Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter II, the Jets should be able to get it done. They allowed just 1.1 passing touchdowns per game last season, which was the second-best mark in football. They did that despite being on the field at the eighth-highest rate last season. If the Jets’ offense can help the defense out for a change, they have the potential for a monster year.
Breece Hall 100+ scrimmage yards and anytime touchdown SGP (+213; FanDuel)
I want to be bullish on Hall, and this SGP provides a bit of upside at +213. Hall is underpriced to score a touchdown at +120, and I like his chances of getting to 100 rushing+receiving yards as well. He’s as talented as any back in the league, and with the improvements the Jets have made to their offensive line, he should be able to average close to 5 yards per carry. He ripped off 5.8 yards per carry as a rookie, so that might be a conservative estimate.
Hall is also an elite pass catcher out of the backfield, averaging 4.5 catches per game. One way or another, I like his chances of getting there vs. the 49ers.
