There are tons of resources available to help you make more informed decisions, including our suite of Betting Tools at Fantasy Life.
One of my favorite things to look at is the betting percentage splits.
You can see the breakdown of the number of tickets and money coming in on each side and the total, indicating where the sharp money is landing.
For example, if a team gets 50% of the spread bets but 80% of the dollars, the large wagers – which tend to come from professional bettors – are siding with them.
The public money typically comes in smaller increments, so the other side can have the same number of tickets at a significantly lower handle.
Essentially, this allows us to take a peak at the smart kid’s homework before the start of class.
Sharp bettors are respected for a reason: they win more than they lose. It would be foolish not to take their opinions into account.
Week 5 wasn’t the greatest for sharp bettors. They went 0-3 on the sides highlighted in this piece, but they did manage to hit on both of their totals. Still, a 2-3 showing still puts the sharp picks at 11-4 over the past three weeks.
Let’s dive into five games the pros are taking a stand on for NFL Week 6.
New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans:
- Opening Line: Saints -2.5
- Current Line: Saints -1.5 (-108; DraftKings)
This may not stand out as a marquee matchup, but it’s undoubtedly one of the most intriguing of the week.
In one corner stands the Saints, who are 3-2 to start the year. That’s a solid record, and it still might undersell this team’s quality. They blew a 17-point fourth-quarter lead after Derek Carr got injured vs. the Packers, so they could easily be 4-1. Their other loss came the following week against an underrated Buccaneers squad, and Carr was operating at less than 100%.
In the other corner stands the Texans, who are 2-3. They entered the year with low expectations with a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach. However, C.J. Stroud has looked like anything but a rookie. He’s averaged 8.6 adjusted yards per attempt with seven touchdown passes and zero picks, and he’s 15th at the position in Pro Football Focus grade.
The Texans are currently riding a three-game ATS winning streak, which has caused this number to dip slightly in the betting market. They were listed as 2.5-point underdogs on the look-ahead line, but they’re down to just 1.5 currently.
The sharps clearly see that as a mistake.
The Saints offense hasn’t graded out well this season, but they’ve been much more effective in games with a healthy Carr. Their defense is also outstanding, so this team is slightly undervalued.
In Thursday’s Betting Life newsletter, Matthew Freedman highlighted the Saints as a team that Rufus Peabody is considerably higher on than the market. Peabody is one of the best sports bettors on the planet, so that’s extremely valuable information.
The Saints have received 90% of the dollars on just 41% of the bets (per the Action Network), so they’re one of the sharpest sides of the week.
I'm happy to jump on board as long as this line stays below a field goal.
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Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
- Opening Line: Panthers +7.0
- Current Line: Panthers +14.0 (-110; Caesars)
The sharps often see value with the crummiest teams, and the Panthers fit that description in Week 6. They’re getting virtually no support from the public – they’ve received just nine percent of the spread bets – but the sharps are taking a flyer on Carolina.
Oct 8, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) throws a pass during warm-ups before their game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
The Dolphins are a team that the public adores, but the sharps have some concerns. While they boast arguably the best offense in the league – and quite possibly, the best offense in history – their defense remains a major weakness. They’re 22nd in EPA/play allowed, so they can give back nearly every point they score.
The Panthers have yet to cover a game this season, going 0-4-1 ATS through their first five contests, but things haven’t been as bad as those numbers suggest. They lost by three points to the Saints and eight points to the Vikings, and only last week’s loss to the Lions was by more than four touchdowns.
Additionally, teams with zero covers in a five-week stretch tend to become undervalued. They’ve gone 109-84-6 ATS in their next contest, so the Panthers could be a buy-low target.
Now that this line has reached 14 points, don’t be surprised to see more sharp action on the Panthers.
This number has hovered at 13.5 points for most of the week, and while 14 isn’t the most crucial key number, it’s still better than 13.5.
If you can stomach betting on a gross team, Panthers +14.0 makes a lot of sense.
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Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons
- Opening Line: Commanders +3.5
- Current Line: Commanders +2.5 (-108; DraftKings)
The Commanders are coming off a humiliating showing in Week 5, suffering a 20-point home loss to the previously winless Bears. However, the fact that they played on Thursday gives them a slight rest edge over the Falcons.
Historically, road underdogs coming off the “mini bye” have been solid investments as non-public squads. When getting less than 50% of the spread bets – the Commanders are currently receiving 46% – they’re 54-40-1 ATS.
While that’s a solid return on investment, it’s far from the only reason to like the Commanders.
The Falcons have two major deficiencies: passing offense and passing defense. They’re 27th in EPA/dropback and 21st in EPA/dropback allowed, which is a rough combination for the modern NFL. The inability to stop the pass means you’re going to play from behind, and the inability to throw makes it challenging to catch up.
This line has dipped below the key number of three, indicating that the sharps love the Commanders. It takes a lot to move a sportsbook from 3.5 to 2.5, especially given how poorly the Commanders looked last week.
Personally, I’d love to see this line get back to +3.0, but I will probably lock in a bet on the Commanders regardless. If I can’t get +3.0, they’re a strong candidate to take on the moneyline at better than even money.
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Opening Total: 45.5
- Current Total: 42.5 (-110; BetMGM)
When you think of the Lions, you don’t necessarily think “defense.” They were dead last in yards per game and 28th in points last season, and when combined with their explosive offense, it made them an over machine. They were 10-7 to the over last year, and things were expected to be relatively similar this season.
However, the Lions’ defense has made some massive strides in 2023.
Detroit Lions cornerback Jerry Jacobs (23) celebrates with defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97) after intercepting a pass against the Green Bay Packers during their football game on Thursday, September 28, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The Lions won the game, 34-20. Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin
They’re up to 15th in points per game allowed, which still probably undersells how good they’ve been. They’re seven in yards per game allowed and 10th in EPA/play.
The Lions are still 3-2 to the over in 2023, but their games have been lower-scoring overall.
The Lions also tend to be a more run-heavy offense, which results in faster games. They’ve had a negative dropback over expectation in four of five games, with the lone exception being last week vs. the Panthers.
On the other side, the Buccaneers’ defense has also been fantastic. They’re seventh in EPA/play against and 3-1 to the under. Their games have gone under by an average of nearly five points per game, and their only over this season was against the Bears. Chicago is a perfect 5-0 to the over this season, and that game only managed to go over by three points.
Ultimately, the sharps are all over the under in this spot. It’s received 69% of the dollars on just 24% of the bets, which has caused this number to dip to 42.5. I don’t love grabbing a line three points lower than the opener, but this still stands out as an excellent bet to target.
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San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns
- Opening Total: 41.5
- Current Total: 36.5 (-108; DraftKings)
Sometimes, it’s best not to overthink things. On one side, you have a Browns’ offense starting a backup quarterback. They will go with P.J. Walker after Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s disastrous first outing, but Walker isn’t much of an upgrade. He’s averaged just 4.7 adjusted yards per attempt with five touchdowns and 11 interceptions, so he’s never found success at the NFL level.
How is that guy supposed to score points against one of the best defenses in the league?
The 49ers’ offense figures to be more successful, and they’ve been an absolute juggernaut this season. They’re second in points per game and third in yards, and only the Dolphins have been better in terms of EPA/play.
That said, if there’s any defense that can slow them down, it’s the Browns. They’re first in EPA/play against by a wide margin, and their pass defense has been particularly elite. Myles Garrett and company likely won’t stop the 49ers completely, but they could at least keep them in check.
This number is down to 36.5 at DraftKings, but it’s as low as 35.5 elsewhere.
This number should continue to fall leading up to kickoff, so it’s an excellent candidate to lock in now.
