NFL Week 18 is a completely different beast than the rest of the regular season. That’s particularly true this season. There are only two playoff spots still up for grabs: one Wild Card spot in the AFC and the NFC South champion. There are also some big matchups for seeding purposes—including the massive Sunday Night Football showdown between the Lions and Vikings—but each team will have varying degrees of motivation.
Week 18 Motivation - How to Bet It
Let’s dive into everything you need to know to properly evaluate the final week of the regular season.
As always, make sure to check out all of our staff’s best bets using the free Fantasy Life NFL Bet Tracker.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
- Spread: Ravens -18.0
- Total: 41.5
Saturday’s NFL slate belongs to the AFC North, starting with the matchup between the Browns and Ravens. The Ravens are massive favorites, with the line up to 18.0 across most of the industry. With a win, Baltimore secures the division title and No. 3 spot in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Browns are only playing for draft positioning. They would have the No. 3 pick if the season ended this week.
I highlighted the Ravens in my Week 18 Early Lines piece, and I think they’re the clear side to target here. That said, I like the idea of playing them in the first half instead of the full game, which you can find on DraftKings at -9.5 (-115). That gives us some potential insurance in case the Ravens pull their starters in the second half if this game gets out of hand.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Spread: Bengals -1.5
- Total: 48.0
Depending on what happens in the first game, the Steelers will know what’s at stake when they take the field on Saturday night. They can’t win the division if the Ravens take care of business vs. the Browns, but this contest would still be pretty important. The Steelers are currently sitting in fifth place in the AFC, but they could drop to No. 6 with a loss. The difference between five and six is pretty massive. The five seed gets a friendly first-round matchup at the Texans, while the six seed would have to travel into Baltimore. That’s a pretty big disparity in competition, so it’s worth playing for.
The Bengals also need a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. They would also need losses from the Broncos and Dolphins on Sunday, but that only matters if they beat the Steelers. Their playoff odds only improve to 10% with a win (per NFL.com), but they’ll at least have a chance.
With that in mind, expect both teams to give this game their all. The Bengals were initially listed as 3.0-point road favorites, but this line has since settled at -2.0 or -1.5. It’s hard to go against Mike Tomlin as a divisional home underdog, but I think they’re the better team. This game also matters more for them than it does for Pittsburgh, who is undoubtedly in the playoffs regardless of what happens on Saturday. That opens the door for the team to potentially pull the plug if they’re down in the second half. I’m not sure if I’ll actually have some betting exposure in this matchup, but the Bengals are my preferred side at the moment.
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Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
- Spread: Commanders -5.5
- Total: 44.0
The Commanders are in the playoffs, but their seed is still up for grabs. Head coach Dan Quinn told reporters that they’re “going to go after it as hard as they can,” and that feels like the correct decision. If they finish seventh, they’ll have to head into Philadelphia for a first-round matchup vs. the Eagles. If they finish No. 6, they’ll get a much easier matchup against either the Rams or Buccaneers. They control their own destiny for the sixth seed, so if they win against the Cowboys, they’ll get their desired outcome.
This is also a bit of a revenge spot for the Commanders, who suffered a shocking upset in Washington when these teams met back in Week 12. I expect them to give the Cowboys their full attention, and with Dallas coming off a massive loss last week to the Eagles, they could be ready to waive the white flag. They’re already without CeeDee Lamb, and their offense looked pretty anemic without him. I don’t mind laying the points with Washington.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Spread: Buccaneers -13.5
- Total: 43.5
This one is pretty simple. If the Bucs win, they’re the NFC South champs. If they lose, it opens the door for the Falcons to still the division crown.
New Orleans doesn’t have much of an incentive to lose—they would pick 10th in the 2025 NFL Draft if the season ended today—but they’re simply not a very good team at the moment. Without Derek Carr, Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill, they simply don’t have the horses to compete at the NFL level.
Tampa Bay already blew the doors off the Saints once without Carr this season, and it’s hard to imagine the rematch being much different.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
- Spread: Falcons -8.0
- Total: 48.0
The Falcons are entirely dependent on the Buccaneers. They can only make the playoffs with a Buccaneers loss, so I expect they’ll have their eyes on the scoreboard throughout their matchup vs. the Panthers.
That makes this a volatile situation. If Tampa Bay cruises out to an early lead, it could be a bit demoralizing for the Falcons’ sideline. I don’t think they’d necessarily pull the starters in that scenario, but they could take a hit from a motivation standpoint. This will also be just the third start of Michael Penix’s career, and he hasn’t exactly crushed in his first two outings.
That makes the Panthers an appealing target for me at +8.0. They’re still playing hard, and Bryce Young is trying to prove that he belongs in the NFL. Expect them to continue to fight until the end of the year and try to build some momentum heading into next season.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
- Spread: Packers -10.0
- Total: 41.0
The Packers are locked into the No. 7 seed unless Washington slips up vs. the Cowboys. That’s possible, but I don’t think it’s something they’re necessarily expecting.
Still, Green Bay is going to try to build some positive momentum heading into the postseason. They’re coming off a subpar showing against the Vikings that was not as close as the final score suggests, and head coach Matt LaFleur stated that the starters will play vs. the Bears. Chicago has lost 10 games in a row, so that would seem to give Green Bay an edge.
Still, I’m not necessarily excited to lay 10 points with them in a game that doesn’t mean much. This is a pass for me.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
- Spread: Chargers -4.5
- Total: 41.0
By the time Sunday rolls around, the Chargers will know exactly what is at stake for them. If the Steelers win on Saturday, the Chargers are locked into the No. 6 seed in the AFC. If the Steelers lose, it opens the door to move up to No. 5. As mentioned previously, that’s definitely worth playing for—there’s a huge difference between facing the Texans and Ravens in your first playoff contest.
Jim Harbaugh has also stated that he intends to try to win the game regardless of what happens in Pittsburgh. Expect to see the starters on Sunday, even if the Steelers solidify the No. 5 seed.
However, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll play the whole game. That makes this another contest where the first half line of -3.0 (-110) is the more appealing target.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
- Spread: Seahawks -6.5
- Total: 38.5
The Rams are theoretically playing for seeding on Sunday, but that doesn’t seem particularly important to head coach Sean McVay. McVay is known for resting his starters in games that don’t matter, and he’s going to take that approach vs. the Seahawks. Jimmy Garoppolo has already been announced as the starting quarterback, and I’d imagine most of their key players on both sides of the ball will be in street clothes.
That has caused the Seahawks to balloon all the way up to -6.5 after opening as underdogs. It’s hard to disagree with that assessment, and I think Seattle is playable at anything better than a touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
- Spread: Broncos -10.5
- Total: 40.0
The Chiefs have already secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC, while the Broncos are playing just to get into the playoffs. It’s hard to have a much wider gap in motivation for a Week 18 contest.
That’s reflected in the line, which continues to rise toward the Broncos. They got to -8.0 on Sunday evening immediately after the lines were released, and the number has only gotten higher since then.
The Chiefs have already announced Carson Wentz as the starter for this contest, and they’ll be without most of their other best players as well. Andy Reid is also known for going pretty vanilla with his play calling in situations like this and saving his best stuff for more important contests.
That makes it hard to support Kansas City, but I’m also not sure I want to back the Broncos at this large of a number. It’s a spot where they’re going to have all the pressure on them, and they still have a rookie at quarterback.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
- Spread: Lions -2.5
- Total: 56.5
The last game of the week should be a banger. Both of these teams are locked into a playoff spot, but the winner of this game will be the No. 1 seed in the conference. The loser dips all the way to No. 5, so the stakes are pretty massive. The No. 1 seed gets the much-needed first-round bye, while the No. 5 seed will likely be on the road for the duration of the playoffs. It’s a rough penalty for whichever team loses, but such is life in the NFL.
I wrote about this game in my Early Lines piece, and I’m siding with Minnesota.
Detroit undoubtedly has the edge offensively, but their defense has been a disaster of late. It’s not entirely their fault—they’ve been hit harder by injuries than just about any team in football—but they can’t stop a nosebleed at this point. With so many defenders currently on IR, I think the Vikings are the more complete team at the moment.
I was fortunate enough to grab a +3.5 when these numbers were first released on Sunday night, but I still think the Vikings are playable at +3.0 or better.
Explore how our NFL Game Model views each and every game on the Week 18 slate. You can also compare our player projections to industry prices to highlight the biggest edges on the slate!
