Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals goes off tonight in Edmonton.
The Oilers managed a split in the first two games in Dallas and now have home-ice advantage. Can they maintain or will the Stars take back control of the series? Let's dive into my best bets for Oilers vs. Stars Game 3.
Best Bets - Oilers vs. Stars Game 3
Tyler Seguin Over 0.5 points (+110; DraftKings)
Seguin has arguably been the Stars’ most important forward this playoffs. The 32-year-old only has 10 points in 15 games but he’s playing a variety of roles for Dallas and has been moved back onto a de facto first line with Jason Robertson; a fact which should only boost his chances of landing a point for us today.
He’s also been far more aggressive when he’s had the puck in these playoffs. The former Bruin is now averaging 3.26 shots on net per game, a full shot higher than he averaged during the regular season.
While both goalies have been great to start this series I can't help but think that eventually, we will see a higher-scoring affair break out between these two teams soon. Regardless, with the price for Seguin to land us a point sitting at +110 now, today feels like a great time to start looking toward some overs.
Much like Game 3 between the Rangers and Florida (which saw four goals in the first period), today’s game between Dallas and Edmonton may be the higher-scoring affair we’ve been craving after these two offensive stalwarts spent the first two games in Dallas in more a feeling out period.
Dylan Holloway Anytime Goal (+700; bet365)
This price on Holloway looks extra juicy today for a game that should have lots of back-and-forth action. The Oilers winger has already had some great chances to hit the back of the twine in this series, and he’s also averaged four shot attempts over his last three games.
The former bottom-six winger is now playing alongside Leon Draisaitl at even strength, who continues to be one of the most underappreciated playmakers in the league.
Holloway’s not a prolific goal scorer but has elevated his play in the playoffs and is getting extra opportunities right now because of it. He’s also scored in one game in each of the past two series and should continue to get plenty of run along Draisaitl; who typically plays well over 20 minutes a game.
The price here is also a big factor. Holloway is as small as +400 at other sportsbooks but can be had for +600 on FanDuel (a price I’d still play) and is as big as +700 on bet365. It’s a nice opportunity if you’re looking to take some swings in the anytime goal department for Game 3.
Warren Foegele Under 1.5 SOG (+110; bet365)
Foegele finally hit the over on his shot on goal prop in Game 2, landing two shots in 10 minutes of ice time. It was the first time he had recorded 2 or more shots on net in six games. While he’s seen time alongside Connor McDavid at even strength, Foegele’s main strength is his two-way effectiveness and he’s primarily been a bottom-six forward most of his career; and I see no reason for that to change today.
Outside of Game 1, where the Oilers and Stars went deep into OT, Foegele has only played over 12 minutes twice in his last six games. The Oilers are also primarily a two-line team and lean heavily on their core group of forwards, especially on the power play.
Just given the fact that Foegele has hit this under nine times over his last 10 games makes this prop stands out as one of the best potential values on the slate for today. The Fantasy Life Betting Calculator has the implied probability on his current price of +110 set at 47%, which seems ludicrous low given how often he’s gone under 2.0 shots of late. While the under almost seems too obvious, this isn't a prop I'd shy away from playing at +100 or better, unless we get news of a lineup change or movement for Foegele up the depth chart.
Underdog NHL Pick’em
- 3-way, 11.88x multiplier
I discussed the correlation between Robertson and Seguin, who have been playing together at even strength of late, both men are also a part of the first powerplay unit for the Stars which has the potential to get lots of run, depending on how the game flows.
Correlating a Seguin goal with a Robertson assist makes sense just given how aggressive Seguin has been with his shot of late. Adding in the Hyman HIGHER in the SOG makes perfect sense today as well.
Few players had bigger home-road splits this season than Hyman who averaged 4.05 shots on net in games played in Edmonton this season, a full shot more than he did on the road. He’s gone over this 3.5 total in three of the last four home games for Edmonton as well.
