This Thursday we have a 10-game slate in the NHL. At this time of year the games either mean nothing or everything and we have a big mix of contests like that on tap for today. Almost every team involved in the Eastern Conference playoff race is in action and I’ve broken down many of those matchups below.
With so much going on, I won’t waste any more time with a drawn-out intro. Let’s dive in and see where the action takes us for today.
NHL Bets Today - April 11
Pittsburgh Penguins to make the playoffs (+140, DraftKings)
- Play to: +130
Let’s start off by talking about a small futures play. The Penguins are in action today against Detroit, whom they are tied with for ninth place in the Conference. Pittsburgh also sits one point behind the Capitals for the final playoff spot, with both teams having played 78 games. The Penguins have been the best team of this group by a longshot of late with Detroit’s offense struggling and Washington going 1-5-1 in their last seven games.
Despite that, Pittsburgh remains a longer underdog to make the playoffs mainly due to them being behind Washington but also the fact they have to play Boston, Nashville, and the Islanders in their final three games. It’s a tough schedule, but the first two games are at home, and if the Islanders (currently in seventh place) have sewn up a playoff spot by the time that final game rolls around we could see them sit some of their top players.
I like the Penguins today and certainly betting them on the moneyline isn’t a poor idea, but they are -155 or shorter at most books. If they win, they’ll have a big edge on Detroit and may even move in front of Washington, who plays Buffalo, a team they have struggled with lately (more on that below).
Rather than go for the smaller payout I like leveraging Pittsburgh in the “make the playoffs market”, while they are still bigger in price than Washington. It gives us multiple outs to hit it and likely provides better overall value which is our main concern as bettors.
Islanders win in regulation (-125, bet365)
- Play to: -130
The Islanders are rolling. They’re now -750 to make the playoffs at DraftKings and are two points clear of eighth place Washington. A win tonight puts them in a near-infallible spot to get into the postseason and with their final game being a matchup with ninth-place Pittsburgh, you can be sure this team is dead focused on securing the proverbial bag before that meeting rolls around.
The Canadiens have been a solid underdog play of late, landing big wins against Colorado, Florida, and Philadelphia (x2) of late but they have also been inconsistent, and have strung together multiple wins just once since the start of February. Coming off a 9-3 win, where everyone but the goalies scored, this is also a good time to play for some short-term regression against a team in the Islanders who have been solid defensively of late, allowing two goals or less in four straight games.
Both of these teams have their flaws but the Islanders are just slightly better than the Canadiens at almost every angle (5v5, power-play) and Montreal’s goaltending has been shaky on the road (Samuel Montembeault, tonight’s likely starter, has just a .885 save % on the road).
I like playing for an Isles win today and with the regulation line still available at very bettable prices it seems like a fair way to approach this matchup.
Buffalo Sabres Moneyline (-135, bet365)
- Play to: -140
This is a monster game for Washington, who just snaked out a huge win they didn’t deserve against the Red Wings. The Capitals were outshot badly in that game (43-23) but the Red Wings offense has run cold of late and couldn’t make them pay for their poor defense. I don’t think the Capitals will be as lucky against Buffalo. The Sabres offense has run hot and cold down the stretch but had no issues exploiting the Capitals' defense the last time these teams met. Buffalo has scored four or more goals against the Capitals in four of the last five meetings between these clubs and trounced Washington 6-2 in early April.
This game, like that last one, also takes place in Buffalo and that’s not the greatest news for the Capitals either who have lost their last two games in Buffalo and been outscored by a combined score of 13-6 in said games. Washington has also had its issues generating offense on the road. They are just 18-19 in away games this year and average just 2.49 goals per game on the road (third worst in the league).
I think it’s a lot to ask for the Capitals to go into Buffalo and steal another road game. The Sabres played the Stars close in their last game and have received solid goaltending over the last month or so. They feel like the correct side to back at -140 or better.
Bryan Rust over 3.5 shots (+154, Fanduel)
- Play to: +140
I like this spot for Bryan Rust to post another high-volume night in the SOG category. He’s coming off a 6 SOG night in his last outing against the Leafs and is generally a boom-or-bust player to target in this category. The boom looks worth chasing tonight for a couple of reasons, the main one of which is the excellent price we are getting to go over 3.5 SOG on Fanduel at +154, which is quite a bit bigger than what is being offered at some other shops.
The Red Wings also make this a good spot to be bullish on Rust’s SOG volume in tonight’s game. Before limiting the Capitals to just 23 shots (a team that isn’t great at creating chances) the Wings had allowed 36 shots or more against in four straight games. The Penguins are a much better team 5v5 than Washington and have averaged 32.6 shots on net on the season (7th most). With this being a must-win game for Pittsburgh (they are now tied with Detroit and one point behind the Capitals) I can’t see Rust being less aggressive than he was with the puck in his last game.
The price looks right to keep chasing another big-shot total from the winger.
Artemi Panarin anytime goal (+135; Fanduel)
- Play to: +125
Artemi Panarin is now four goals away from 50 on the season and only has three games left. There is no guarantee he gets there but this is also a milestone I’m willing to chase on an uber-talented player who has never hit this milestone in his career. Tonight he also faces the Flyers who are in a deep tailspin and pretty much out of airspace to pull out of it.
Philadelphia has allowed a staggering 5.15 goals per game over their last eight starts, which is not that small of a sample size. They just got throttled 9-3 by Montreal of all teams and are trailing four other teams for the final two playoff spots. Philadelphia also takes the eighth-most penalties in the league which should give Panarin lots of power-play opportunities in this game.
I don’t think it’s crazy to play Panarin in a couple of different ways today either, either with the over-on-the-game total in a same-game parlay sitting at +252 on DraftKings or as a multi-goal scorer (he’s +3000 for a hat trick on bet365).
The Rangers can all but close out Carolina with a win today and Panarin would likely play a big part in any Rangers victory.
Underdog NHL Pick’em (3-way; 7.12x)
Artemi Panarin HIGHER 0.5 goals (Scorcher)
See above… we are getting a solid multiplier on Underdog and can leverage the upside of this play into bigger payouts with some of the other props on offer on Underdog.
Sergei Bobrovsky LOWER 0.5 1st Period Goals Against
The Blue Jackets have a laundry list of forwards out for tonight and will essentially be rostering a minor-league squad. The Panthers are great at limiting chances to begin with and are coming off a shutout of Ottawa. Sergei Bobrovsky is also well rested having sat the last game which is just another bonus in our favor. The fact we can still get this at a 0.95 multiplier makes this a great one to build around on Underdog for me.
Nikita Kucherov HIGHER 1.5 points (Scorcher)
Tampa’s offense has been rolling for the past month now and they play a Senators team that is terrible on the road and don’t have anything to play for. Nikita Kucherov enters this game with a two-point lead in the Art Ross trophy race (most points in the league) and certainly should view this game against a team with weak goaltending like Ottawa as a great one to pad his lead. Narratives aside, Kucherov has hit this HIGHER in four straight and five of his last six games so the recent trend is well on our side today.
