A second first-round series ended last night after the Panthers dismantled the Lightning 6-1. We could see four more series end tonight with the Leafs, Predators, Jets, and Islanders all entering tonight down 3-1, and all needing wins to stave off elimination.
While all of the teams facing elimination are underdogs, the Jets do have the advantage of being at home for Game 5. So with so much at stake do we pound the favorites or back some dogs?
The nightly NHL Fantasy Life betting preview is below.
NHL Picks for Tuesday, April 30
Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline (+140; bet365)
There aren’t many people riding with Toronto tonight. The Leafs were thoroughly embarrassed in Game 4 and now head back to Boston down 3-1 and facing elimination. To make matters worse, Toronto has now lost 10 of its last 11 games against the Bruins dating back to the start of 2023.
So why ride with the Leafs? First off, when these teams meet, it’s good to expect the unexpected. The last three times these teams have met in the playoffs the series went to seven games – and at no point in any of those series did either team win three games in a row. Obviously, we can’t rely on the past to be predictive (those were all different teams than the ones we are seeing tonight) but I argued pre-series that these teams were equally flawed (in their own way) and that argument still stands. Boston remains a below average team at 5v5, ranking 12th out of 16 teams in xGF% in the playoffs. Toronto has still carried play for the most part (despite losing three games) even though they were without top winger William Nylander for the first three games.
Nylander having an extra game and couple of days of rest under his belt won’t hurt and at this point, I’d rather back the Leafs anywhere but in Toronto where the relentless fans and media only work against this team's success.
Finally, there is the price. +140 is the biggest odds we have seen on either team in this series and with Boston still underperforming at even strength I don’t necessarily think they deserve to be such big favorites today. I’ve mostly avoided this series but with the odds squarely in favor of the underdog today I’ll ride with the Leafs and hope they push this series to a game six.
Mathew Barzal Over 2.5 SOG (+100; DraftKings)
- 4+ SOG (+255; DraftKings)
- 5+ SOG (+650; DraftKings)
Mathew Barzal has been a hard man to slow down for Carolina in this series. In Game 1 he showed up and landed five shots on net and in Game 4 he landed four shots on net and was the main cog in the Islanders' comeback win, scoring twice, including the game-winner in OT.
The Hurricanes are heavy favorites to close this series out today and while I could certainly see the Islanders pushing them again, it’s not enough for me to want to hunt with Barzal, even if his prices are halfway decent. Instead, I’d rather be bullish on him in another way by taking the over on this 2.5 shots on goal prop, which is set at +100 on DraftKings. The Hurricanes were great at limiting chances in the regular season but the Islanders haven’t had much trouble getting shots through in this series.
Outside of Game 2, (where New York got up 3-0 early and tried, unsuccessfully, to hang on for dear life the rest of the game), the Islanders have landed 30+ shots in each of the remaining three games. As mentioned above, Barzal has been tough to shut down for the Hurricanes and is a player capable of landing 5+ shots in a game on pretty much any night. With New York facing elimination and the potential for some wild action towards the end of the game (empty net, extra man etc) I certainly like taking the +100 on over 2.5 shots for Barzal (which is bigger than it is at other books). I also wouldn’t hesitate to consider him for alternate line bets as well where he’s as big as +650 on DraftKings to hit 5+ shots today.
Nashville Predators win in regulation (+155; bet365)
I placed a Nashville +1.5 Series Future (+270; Fanduel) in our NHL bet tracker yesterday, here’s the just of the reasoning that bet:
The Canucks still have goaltending issues they will have to overcome (either backup Casey DeSmith or third-stringer Arturs Silvos is likely to start Game 5). Silvos held up pretty well in Game 4 considering the circumstances, but what’s concerning for Canuck fans is how little they have carried the play in this series. Vancouver was down mid-way through the third in Game 1, was down the majority of Game 4, and was badly outshot in both games in Nashville.
Nashville hasn’t dominated the way that the Stars have (who are also down in their series), but given how close this series has been, Nashville likely needs a break or two to go their way in Game 5 (breaks they didn’t get in Nashville), and we’ll be back in Nashville for Game 6 — where they will potentially be -125 or bigger on the moneyline. I think the current Nashville +1.5 games line is worth taking a small piece of at this price, and it’s a bet that would certainly provide good hedge equity should we get back to Nashville after Tuesday’s pivotal Game 5.
The +270 price is gone so while I do still like Nashville to push this past Game 5, the better idea is to look to tonight’s lines instead. Much like it did with Dallas yesterday, tonight seems like a spot where taking the Predators in regulation makes a lot of sense. Nashville was on the verge of closing out Game 4 in regulation and has had late leads in all but one game thus far. This game feels like it will either tip heavily toward Nashville (with Vancouver’s goalie issues finally causing them problems) or be a close drawn-out affair, favoring the Canucks again. In any case, the +155 3-way line for Nashville is bigger than we were getting on the Stars yesterday, who opened close to where Nashville is at today on the moneyline. Ultimately, this is a spot where I’d rather go big or go home with Nashville so happy to take them on the 60-minute line and hope they can finally breakthrough for us in a big way today.
Cale Makar anytime Goal (+410; FanDuel)
I like the over 6.5 goals total between Winnipeg and Colorado today and as such, would also be remiss if I didn’t point out this huge price on Cale Makar as an anytime goal scorer. For context, Makar is +300 or shorter in this market at all other shops so we are talking about a 25% difference in price.
Makar is also quite simply the most talented offensive defenseman in the league and has already scored twice in this series. Given the Jets special teams issues and how hot the Colorado power play is, it’s not a bad idea to at least sprinkle this line if you are playing the total to the over – or even use his prop in a same game parlay with either the over or a Colorado win.
Underdog NHL Pick’em for Tuesday
- 5-Way; 16.73x multiplier
I like this series to continue to go back to its higher-scoring roots again and potentially give us one last shootout before Winnipeg goes gently into the sunset (or gives us an encore in Game 6). The Jets have had no answer for the Colorado power play to date and while that’s led to Valeri Nichuskin having a ton of success thus far I like the idea of switching gears and targeting his linemate Mikko Rantanen today.
Eventually, some of those chances will Rantanen’s way, and if they do players like Toews and Makar will have a good shot at being in on the action. Makar has scored two or more points in all but one game of this series to date and Toews has assists in two of the last three games.
On the flip side, if Winnipeg’s offense gets going both Josh Morrissey and Sean Monanhan should have great chances of landing on the score sheet. Morrissey had 59 assists this season so the fact he has zero over the Jets last three games makes him a solid positive regression target for me today.
