Geoff Ulrich breaks down what to expect tonight with his Sunday Night Football bets and picks for the Week 17 clash between the Falcons and Commanders:

Week 17 Sunday Night Football: Will Jayden Daniels roll Atlanta?

  • Spread: Commanders -3.5 (-115; bet365)
  • Total: O/U 46.5 points

This week’s Sunday Night Football game has a lot of importance to both teams. The Commanders can clinch a playoff spot with a win, which would get them to 11-5 and shut out the 8-7 Buccaneers (Washington can also clinch if the Panthers beat the Buccaneers before this game starts). 

The Falcons also would love a Buccaneers loss but need a win to keep hold of the top spot in the NFC South, where they are currently tied with the BuccaneersBuccaneers—but hold the series tiebreaker at 2-0. 

Both teams are coming in off wins but the Commanders have arguably been the better team all season. Jayden Daniels played arguably the best game of his career vs the Eagles last week, throwing for five TD passes and running for 81 yards in the 36-33 win. Daniels is now ranked fourth in EPA per play among qualified QBs on the season and taking on an Atlanta defense that is 17th in EPA per play vs the pass.

The Falcons' move at QB to Michael Penix paid dividends vs the Giants as the rookie was able to game-manage his way to a convincing win, completing 65% of his passes with just one INT, a ball that Kyle Pitts gifted to the Giants DBs.

Atlanta should rely heavily on their running game again this week as the Commanders rank just 25th in EPA against the rush. Running back Bijan Robinson has taken 22+ carries now in four straight games and gone for over 100 scrimmage yards in each of his last four games as well.

Stopping him and forcing the rookie Penix—in just his second career start—to throw the ball more will be key for Washington to secure a win and a postseason berth.

So should we expect a back-and-forth affair or a more subdued game with two first-year signal callers under center?

We’ll go over that and more below, along with the best bets for this week’s SNF game.

Injury Notes for Sunday Night Football - Commanders vs Falcons

Commanders:

Falcons

What's The Best Pick For Commanders vs Falcons Sunday Night Football?

Neither of these coaches has particularly great career ATS records (Quinn 46.6% vs Morris 43.8%). However, it’s worth noting how good Quinn’s Commanders have been this season as they head into this game at 9-5-1 ATS on the season, and with a far better record than Morris’ Falcons who sit at 6-8-1 ATS. 

Further, Atlanta hasn’t beaten a team of significance since Week 8 when they beat the currently 8-7 Buccaneers for the second time this season. This week, they’ll be taking on a Commanders team who is 6-2 ATS at home this year (and 5-2 as home favorites) and playing a rookie QB who is making just his second career start. 

Still, as much as the trends say to stay away from the Falcons in this spot I’ll likely pass on the spread. Penix is an older rookie who has played in a ton of big games and didn’t look out of place at all vs the Giants. Indeed, he wasn’t asked to do too much but considering how poorly his predecessor was at handling that same task it’s not hard to view Penix as a decent upgrade at QB for Atlanta heading into this game. 

I’d ultimately side with Washington -3.5, but will look to props and other ways to play this game instead.

Just like the spread, these two teams have been on opposite ends of the total spectrum as well. Washington enters this game 10-5 to the over while Atlanta is 10-5 to the under. The weather in this game does call for potential winds up to 10-12mph and rain but as of writing the total seems like it’s been stuck on 46.5 all week.

Given how much the Falcons would like to run the ball in this game, I’d lean to the under in this spot at the current number but will wait until we get more weather clarity on Sunday to make it an official bet.

I break down the best props and more for the Commanders vs Falcons below.

Commanders vs. Falcons Best Bets and Player Props

Tyler Allgeier Over 6.5 Carries (-132; FanDuel)

Allgeier has averaged 10 carries per game over his last four starts and has gone over this total in 10 or 15 games he’s started and finished.

This is a massive game, so of course the Falcons will want Bijan Robinson on the field as much as possible. However, Allegier is legitimately one of the better short-down and early-down runners in the league and facing off against a bottom-tier rush defense, which makes him almost as appealing an option for Atlanta.

All things considered, even with the heavier juice, this total just seems to be baking in a little too much negative game script for Allgeier. We still have him projected for 7.4 carries, even with Atlanta set as road underdogs, making this playable all the way up to -140 if need be.

Kyle Pitts Over 19.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365)

Since pointing out that Kyle Pitts receiving props were dropping like a stone before Week 15, I am now 1-1 on betting his over.

Flash-forward another couple of weeks and here we are setting fresh lows with Pitts’ total at under 20.0 yards. How did we get here? Who is to blame? And how did we get here are all questions ringing through my head.

As much as I’d like to move on, I can’t get the notion through my head that deep down, the man who went for 91 yards and two TDs on just four catches in Week 8 still knows how to play football somehow.

Washington has also given up an inordinate amount of TDs to opposing TEs this season (7—fifth most in the league) so you could also grab a piece of Pitts in the anytime TD market, who is as big as +470 on Caesars, if so inclined.

For what it’s worth, we have Pitts projected at 25 receiving yards this week so my ranting is somewhat routed in value.

Underdog Picks For Falcons vs Commanders SNF Week 17

For more edges to exploit on Underdog Fantasy for Week 17, head over to our Underdog Pick'em Builder to compare our projections to the Underdog pick'em market and craft the best pick'em entry possible!

Underdog Pick'em Edges For Week 17