Ladder bets often hinge on variance and can lead to heartbreak. For instance, having a player finish with 99 yards when he needs 100-plus is one of the most soul-crushing experiences in the world. But as a bettor, ladder bets are also a great way to get paid in a big way when a player you like ends up hitting a ceiling game.
And since the Super Bowl is the culmination of the NFL season, we don’t have much reason to hold back this week. That doesn’t mean that we should go crazy and bet on every player to hit 100-plus rushing or receiving yards or bet on Patrick Mahomes to throw for six TDs, but we can definitely expand our horizons a bit and target multiple players we like for some Super Bowl ladder bets.
Here are four of my favorite ladder bets to target for Super Bowl LVIII along with some suggestions as to how to unit allocate for each bet. If you want a more detailed explanation on ladder bets in general, feel free to check out our primer for ladder bets.
Christian McCaffrey receiving yards (DraftKings)
- 50-plus receiving yards (+230)
- 60-plus receiving yards (+380)
- 70-plus receiving yards (+600)
- 80-plus receiving yards (+1000)
Christian McCaffrey hasn’t had his biggest receiving games as a member of the 49ers (thus far), but that doesn’t mean that he can’t break in a big way with the Lombardi trophy on the line. The Chiefs' linebackers have had their issues in limiting gains on the ground for most of the year. In the AFC Conference Championship game, Kansas City's defense allowed Justice Hill 34 receiving yards on four catches, and they allowed 81 yards to James Cook on just five catches back in Week 14.
It's safe to say that McCaffrey is more explosive than either Hill or Cook and has dynamic yards after the catch ability.
Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) stiff arms Detroit Lions safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (2) during the first half of the NFC Championship football game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
In a way, McCaffrey’s down year as a receiver (relatively speaking for him) works in our favor for this bet. We’re getting +600 odds (14.2% implied probability) to chase him up to 70-plus receiving yards. Although McCaffrey has only gone over this total twice during the regular season, he eclipsed 70 receiving yards in four games in 2022. And in 91 career regular season starts, he’s logged 70 or more receiving yards in 21 of those games (23%).
Given the Chiefs' ability to bring pressure and the fact that they love to blitz (seventh-highest blitz rate in the league), Brock Purdy could need to dump the ball off to McCaffrey relentlessly, which creates a narrative that could easily get McCaffrey over some of these higher alternate receiving totals.
I personally like starting bets at the 50-plus total and would allocate most of my capital to the 50-plus and 60-plus receiving yardage totals for McCaffrey. However, I would certainly play this all the way up to 80-plus receiving yards in order to get exposure to those bigger potential returns. Given his history and talent, McCaffrey has a fair chance to get to 70-plus receiving yards or higher as a focal point of the 49ers' offense with a Super Bowl title on the line.
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Marquez Valdes Scantling receiving yards (DraftKings)
- 40-plus receiving yards (+280)
- 50-plus receiving yards (+390)
- 60-plus receiving yards (+650)
When we look at how the Chiefs will likely attack the 49ers' defense in this matchup, I like the chance for Marquez Valdes-Scantling to come down with one or more big plays for Kansas City given his usage from their last two playoff games.
While he had just a 56% route rate against Buffalo, MVS caught two balls on four targets, and both of those catches went for 30-plus yard gains. The Bills made that game a back and forth affair, and the Chiefs responded by airing it out a little more to MVS, who rewarded their trust in him with 62 receiving yards.
In the AFC Championship Game, MVS only saw two targets due to game script and poor weather conditions but converted both into catches. The more significant underlying metric is that MVS's route rate jumped to a season-high 96% against Baltimore, and he should have Mahomes's trust heading into the Super Bowl after he caught the game-clinching pass on their final drive late against the Ravens.
Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (11) makes a catch over Buffalo Bills cornerback TAron Johnson (7) in the first half of the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
The conditions this week will obviously be ideal given that Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas has a dome. And while I don’t necessarily expect Kansas City to start the game by airing it out, the 49ers are a better matchup for MVS than the Ravens were.
San Francisco's secondary has struggled as of late, as cornerback Ambry Thomas had a brutal game against Green Bay, allowing multiple big plays to Romeo Doubs and Bo Melton. The 49ers also allowed catches of 20-plus yards to both Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams in the NFC Championship Game.
I’ll even take this one a step further as well and mention that MVS has a history of torching the 49ers. He went for 108 receiving yards against them as a rookie back in 2018. Then in 2022, MVS had three catches for 111 yards against the 49ers, and two of those were big gains of 40 and 57 yards. In fact, MVS has eclipsed 50 receiving yards in four of six career games against San Francisco with an average of 2.4 receptions for 67 receiving yards per game.
I’ve already mentioned that I like MVS as a good longest reception bet, so that correlates well with these alternate receiving yardage totals and to bet on to have the most receiving yards in the game. With DraftKings offering solid +280 odds at the 40-plus receiving yards line, I like using that as a starting point for an MVS ladder bet and would go all the way up to 60-plus yards with incrementally smaller bets.
Brock Purdy INTs (bet365)
- 1 INT (-130)
- 2 INTs (+375)
- 3 INTs (+1300)
Brock Purdy has struggled more and more with pressure as the season progressed. Both the Lions and Packers had him on the ropes for most of those games (although credit is due to Purdy for coming back in both of those playoff contests), and he melted down against the Ravens in Week 14 for a career-high four INTs. The Vikings and Bengals (both above average in pressure rate) also forced Purdy into multiple INTs this year.
In the Super Bowl, he’ll face a Chiefs team that's now intercepted the opposing QB in each of their three playoffs games, and Kansas City's defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, has a knack for finding ways to get pressure on opposing QBs.
Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) passes the ball against the Detroit Lions during the second half of the NFC Championship football game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
While it may seem crazy to think about betting on three INTs from a QB on a historically run-heavy offense like San Francisco's, Purdy has actually thrown an average of 34.5 passes in their two playoff games to date. And with everything on the line in this matchup, don't expect Purdy to hold back if the 49ers fall behind again like they did against the Packers and Lions.
On top of that, though Purdy has only thrown one INT in the playoffs thus far, he's seen a drop in his completion rate overall in the postseason, which suggests that there could be further room for regression in the INT department incoming.
And finally, in 57 Super Bowls to date, there have surprisingly been 16 QBs who have thrown three or more INTs. Although it's unlikely that Purdy will do so, at +1300, the implied probability of 7.14% suggests that these odds are perhaps underrating the possibility of him throwing three INTs, which makes this a ladder bet-worthy play.
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Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushing yards (DraftKings)
- Over 12.5 rushing yards (+220)
- Over 19.5 rushing yards (+475)
- 25-plus rushing yards (+750)
Much has been discussed leading up to the Super Bowl about San Francisco's struggles in stopping the run lately. Interestingly enough, the once-vaunted 49ers defense has allowed 15-plus rushing yards to two or more RBs in five of their last six games.
On top of declining EPA allowed per rush and Success Rate against the run all season, the 49ers allowed 6.3 yards per carry last week to the Lions' RBs in the NFC Championship Game and 5.6 yards per carry to the Packers' RBs before that.
Jan 28, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25) runs with the ball against Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton (14) during the second half in the AFC Championship football game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
So while Clyde Edwards-Helaire doesn’t necessarily project for a big role in this game with Isiah Pacheco expected to see the bulk of the carries, CEH has sprung some big gains on limited opportunities. He tallied 31 yards on just two rushing attempts against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game, and CEH managed to reach 21 rushing yards on seven carries against the Dolphins with Kansas City playing with a lead late.
Jerick McKinnon is unlikely to play in the Super Bowl as of this writing, so CEH projects to reprise his role as the No. 2 RB, a role which has allowed him to eclipse 20 rushing yards in two of their three playoff games this year.
Given that we’re getting solid odds to start a ladder at 12.5 rushing yards at +220, I like playing a majority of the bet on that total while laddering up with smaller allocations to the over on 19.5 rushing yards and 25-plus rushing yards. With the 49ers favored by less than a field goal, the Chiefs should be able to keep this game close and give a few carries to CEH when Pacheco needs a breather.
