The Super Bowl is truly Christmas for sports bettors. Yes, it is the biggest game of the year, pitting the best team from the AFC vs. the best team from the NFC. However, that’s just a small part of why this is one of the best days of the year.

What truly makes this day great for sports bettors is the number of bets available across the market. This includes all the traditional wagers, but also a widely expanded menu of prop bets.

Almost every player who will see the field — and even some who probably won’t — will have prop bets set across various markets. There are also a handful of novelty and untraditional props available, bringing the total number into the hundreds (if not thousands).

Let’s dive into some of my favorite prop bets for Super Bowl LVIII.

Christian McCaffrey Over 18.5 carries (-115; BetMGM)

More than any week during the NFL season, it’s important to highlight your goals for the Super Bowl. If you’re simply aiming to have fun and maybe win a couple of dollars, feel free to fire up as many longshot props and SGPs as you please. However, my goal is to highlight plays  I think offer a mathematical edge. They might not be the most fun props on the board, but I’m shooting for maximum profitability.

That starts with McCaffrey.

I expect CMC to be extremely busy vs. the Chiefs on Sunday. He has dealt with injuries over the past two weeks, but you wouldn’t know it from his utilization. He’s played on at least 92% of the snaps in both of the 49ers’ postseason contests, and he’s racked up nearly all of the running back opportunities. He has 37 carries over the past two weeks, while No. 2 RB Elijah Mitchell has four. Three of those four carries came on the final drive vs. the Lions, so the gap between McCaffrey and Mitchell has been big enough to drive a truck through.

This matchup also sets up perfectly for CMC. The Chiefs’ defense has been a massive run funnel this season, ranking third in dropback EPA but 28th in rushing EPA. For some reason, the Ravens chose not to exploit that weakness in the AFC Championship, but I don’t expect Kyle Shanahan to make the same mistake. He’s known for his conservative nature, so McCaffrey should touch the ball early and often.

From a game-script perspective, the only way McCaffrey should have less than 20 carries in this spot is if the Chiefs establish a big early lead. That seems pretty far-fetched. Their offense has played better in the playoffs than they did during the regular season, but they still managed just 17 points vs. the Ravens. The 49ers’ defense might not be elite, but they’re still capable of getting a few stops. With the 49ers as small favorites in this matchup, this game shouldn’t ever get to a point where the 49ers have to abandon the run game.

You can tail the over at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up below with code FANTASYLIFE and place your first bet of just $5 or more:

Isiah Pacheco Over 67.5 rushing yards (-110; FanDuel)

Let’s go straight from one running back to the other. While the Chiefs’ poor run defense has been a known commodity for years, the 49ers have also struggled mightily in that department this season. They were 26th in rushing EPA against and 24th in rushing success rate during the regular season.

Those struggles have been on display through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Aaron Jones had 18 carries for 108 yards vs. the 49ers in the Divisional Round, while the Lions racked up 155 rushing yards in the conference championship. In the first half, Detroit averaged more than six yards per carry before contact.

Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) cuts back for a short gain.

The Chiefs’ offense remains pass-first — which makes sense when you have Patrick Mahomes — but Pacheco has become a very important part of their game plan. He played on 79% of the snaps and had 85% of the carries vs. the Ravens, which he converted into 68 yards.

The Ravens game stands out as a bit of an outlier for Pacheco from an efficiency standpoint. He averaged just 2.8 yards per attempt after averaging 4.6 yards per carry for the year. He should be significantly better in an easier matchup vs. the 49ers.

Overall, Pacheco has gone over this figure in five of his past six games, including all three postseason contests. His volume seems pretty locked in — he’s averaged 21 carries per game during the playoffs — so I don’t see why he can’t do it again vs. the 49ers.

You can tail Pacheco on FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5 or more:

Patrick Mahomes 215+ passing yards & 15+ rushing yards (-140; DraftKings)

I never thought I’d be playing a prop found in the “For the Swifties” tab on DraftKings, but here we are. Most of those props are absolutely ridiculous, but I can’t help that this one caught my eye. It’s basically an SGP with 215+ passing yards and 15+ rushing yards for Mahomes, and it’s priced pretty reasonably at -140.

The 215+ passing yards should pretty much be a walk in the park. Mahomes has now played in 17 career postseason contests, and he’s had at least 215 passing yards in 15 of them. That includes all three starts this year.

The rushing yards are a bit dicier, but he’s still had at least 15 in 11 of his 17 career postseason outings. Again, that includes all three postseason starts this season, and eight of his past 10 playoff contests.

Overall, Mahomes has cleared both thresholds in 10 career postseason contests, including seven of his past 10 outings.

You won’t find a rushing prop this low for Mahomes on Super Bowl Sunday, with his traditional and alternate lines all starting at around 25. -140 translates to an implied probability of 58.33%, and I think this prop’s true odds are definitely above 60. Thanks Taylor.

You can tail Mahomes at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you place your first bet of $5 or more after signing up below:

Brandon Aiyuk First Catch Over 13.5 yards (+105; DraftKings)

  • Play To: Over 13.5 (+100)

The 49ers have an abundance of weapons, so it’s hard to predict exactly who will be the primary pass-catcher each week. Most of their options seem priced pretty fairly in the yards market.

Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) makes a catch for a touchdown against the Detroit Lions during the second half of the NFC Championship football game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

However, Aiyuk’s first catch to be at least 14 yards stands out as a solid target at +105. Aiyuk is the 49ers’ primary downfield threat. He averaged 17.9 yards per reception for the year, and his average depth of target (ADOT) was 14.5 yards. He gobbled up 40% of the team’s air yards in games where he was active, including just under 57% in the NFC Championship.

In other words, I’m not sure exactly when Aiyuk’s first catch will come, but when it does, there’s a good chance it’s downfield. At +105, this seems like a solid value.

Super Bowl Props