The UFC is back at the Apex this Saturday with a high-profile main event. Headlining middleweight contenders Jared Cannonier and Caio Borralho will clash for five rounds, with the winner guaranteed to shake up the rankings.

The 12-fight card features some intriguing UFC debutants, including China’s women's flyweight standout, Wang Cong. We also get a glimpse at some new blood with the finals for this season of The Ultimate Fighter. I passed on those specific fights, but found plenty of betting opportunities throughout the card. Let’s lock into this week’s UFC Best Bets.

BEST BET FOR CANNONIER VS. BORRALHO 

Over 3 rounds (-164; FanDuel)

If you are looking to back a fighter, Jared Cannonier is the value side at +205. It’s hard to justify the 33% implied odds considering the level of competition Caio Borralho has faced in the UFC. 

Two of The Natural’s last three wins have come against fighters who are currently on 1-4 runs (Craig, Oleksiejczuk). That being said, it feels a little gross to back the 40-year-old Cannonier on a quick turnaround. Plus, the wave of money flooding the market in support of Borralho is a sign that we have two fighters headed in opposite directions.

Rather than force a bet, I am putting my money on both fighters extending this one into the championship rounds. Borralho is a low-volume fighter (2.91 SLpM) that relies on movement. He is one of the best back-packers in the division, but all his finishing equity relies on his ability to crack Cannonier’s improved takedown defense.

Considering this is the biggest fight of his career, and his first five-round main event, I’m banking on a more conservative approach. Cannonier faded down the stretch in his latest loss, so we could see a longer feeling-out process from him as well.

Borralho has two finishes in six UFC bouts while three of Cannonier’s last four have hit the scorecards. I see this one going the distance in a close, competitive fight. Lay the chalk on the over 3 rounds.

MORE BETS FOR UFC FIGHT NIGHT 

Ricci to win by decision vs. Hill (+140; FanDuel) 

Women’s decision props remind me of the golden years of betting on the NFL draft. The books just know they are going to have to give some back. This bout between Tabatha Ricci and Angela Hill is just too good to pass up. Each fighter has a style that’s conducive to pushing fights to the final bell.

Hill is coming off an impressive submission win over Luana Pinheiro. The rare finish snapped Hill’s run of 11 straight fights that ended in a decision. She is going to try and keep Ricci on the outside of her punches, but “Baby Shark” should be able to drag her into deep waters. This is a binary fight that will be determined by Ricci’s ability to win rounds with her grinding style. Four of Ricci’s five UFC wins have come via decision. With the over 2.5 rounds being bet up past -540, let’s grab the extra value with the decision prop. 

Morales to win by decision vs. Magny (-105, FanDuel) 

My eyes swelled to the size of watermelons when I saw Neil Magny as a +550 underdog. The 40-fight veteran is as tough as an old catcher's mitt. In his last bout, Magny brought the money home as a +320 underdog by upsetting Michael Mallot. Some bettors might still have that warm feeling when it comes to Magny, but I don’t see any way he catches lightning in a bottle for a second time.

Morales’ hand speed and athleticism will be too much for the 37-year-old Magny.

Morales can attack at all three levels, punishing his opponents with bodywork and mixing in leg kicks. We have seen Magny’s legs get abused in the past (vs. Machado Garry), and Morales’ can chop him down in a similar fashion. The striking should lean heavily in Morales' favor as the fight progresses.

Before the Mallot fight, Magny was outstruck by his previous six opponents. I expect Morales to win rounds on volume and damage, but I don’t think he has the finishing instincts to take out the veteran Magny. The decision prop allows us to get the big favorite down in a neighborhood of even money. Against a tough out like Magny, I am willing to bet we get a unanimous decision victory for Morales. 

Llontop ML vs. Borshchev (+185; BetMGM) 

This spot reminds me of our play on Valter Walker at UFC 305. Walker was undervalued by the market after a lackluster debut and bounced back nicely. Now, we have a similar situation with James Llontop, who never made it out of the first round as a -400 favorite against Chris Padilla. 

Was Llontop overrated coming off Dana White’s Contender Series? Yes. Should he be +180 against a guy who just got dragged by Chase Hooper? Absolutely not.

Borschev landed only 2 of 6 strikes versus Hooper in eight minutes of fight time. Llontop can bring the pressure and bang with Borschev. He will have the cardio and durability advantages as well. Borschev has been dropped five times in his last three fights. Also, Borshchev offers little resistance in terms of takedown defense, allowing Llontop an easy out if he starts to lose the striking exchanges.

I don’t believe Borshchev has been downgraded enough from his last performance. He is only 2-2 as a UFC betting favorite and is on the wrong side of a seven-year age gap. At 25, Liontop is the fighter most likely to show improvement. That makes this an easy decision to jump all over the dog at +185.