It’s a rare idle week in the UFC, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t bets to make. We are fresh off watching titles change hands in two separate divisions at UFC 306. Merab Dvalishvili now sits atop the bantamweight throne after grinding out a lopsided win over former champion, Sean O’Malley.

In the co-main event, the third time was a charm for Valentina Shevchenko, who regained her flyweight title and put her trilogy with Alexa Grasso to bed. The clear-cut victories and resulting shake-ups in the two divisions make it an intriguing time to look at the UFC futures market. Championship markets for the end of 2025 are now available at several sportsbooks, including DraftKings and BetMGM.

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Multiple factors must be evaluated when projecting UFC futures. Establishing a fighter's path to getting a title shot is an excellent starting point. This is the fight business--the opportunities don’t always go to the most deserving fighter. Injuries, marketability, rivalries, and timing are just as crucial as rankings or win streaks. Now that we have covered some of the basics, I will break down a few bets where I believe we capture some solid value.

If you have any additional questions on futures or upcoming cards, feel free to drop them in the MMA channel of our community discord.

Who will be the UFC Men's Bantamweight Champion?

UFC MEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT CHAMPION, DECEMBER 31st 2025: Umar Nurmagomedov (+100; BetMGM) 

Let’s be honest, nobody is rushing to step into the Octagon with Umar Nurmagomedov, including the division’s new-crowned champion, Merab Dvalishvili.

Umar has already started to open in the -130 to -200 range in the potential matchup, based on his ability to answer Merab’s wrestling with his transitions and technical grappling. Dvalishvili floating Deiveson Figueiredo as a potential first-title defense tells me his camp is fully aware of the poor stylistic matchup that Nurmagomedov presents.

Locking up the odds at even money now makes sense considering he will be the betting favorite against any bantamweight on the roster. At most, Umar will fight Merab in early 2025, and defend in the second half of the year. Or if there is an injury that postpones his title shot, he still has the time left to become champion by the end of 2025. With former champion, Sean O’Malley, declaring he will be taking a year off, I don’t see any other bantamweight posing a threat to Nurmagomedov. 

Who will be the UFC Women's Flyweight Champion?

UFC WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT CHAMPION ON DECEMBER 31ST, 2025: Manon Fiorot (+400; DraftKings) 

The women’s flyweight division is back under the rule of Valentina Shevchenko. After such a dominating performance against Alexa Grasso, it’s hard to picture the two-time champion relinquishing the belt in her first defense--but that’s exactly what I am betting happens. 

Fiorot served as a backup in the UFC 306 title fight and is the consensus No. 1 contender in the division. Her length and overall strength should be challenging for Shevchenko to overcome. Most of Fiorot’s fights are binary in nature, boiling down to her opponent's inability to take her down, and allowing Fiorot’s output at distance to dictate the fight.

The potential title fight will be strength vs. strength. Shevchenko leads the division in takedowns (47) and takedown accuracy (68.1%) while Fiorot is the division’s best at staying off her back, and checks in just at No. 2 in striking differential (2.49). At these odds, I like Fiorot’s chances of becoming the next champion. When we look at possible challengers in the division, I don’t see any of them having the tools to take Fiorot out. 

Who Will be the UFC's Middleweight Champion?

UFC MIDDLEWEIGHT CHAMPION ON DECEMBER 31ST 2025: Caio Borralho (+2500; BetMGM)

First things first. Caio Borralho is priced as short as 9/1 at other sportsbooks, so we are certainly getting an advantageous price. Odds aside, Borralho’s recent win over Jared Cannonier showcased how rapidly his game is evolving.  “The Natural” outlanded the former title contender 106-57 on head shots while holding Cannonier to 32% striking accuracy. He is no longer a fighter who has to rely on getting the fight to the ground and back-packing his opponents.

There is reason to believe we’ll see the best version of Borralho in 2025. He trains with a team of killers at Fighting Nerds (Sao Paulo, Brazil), who have established themselves as one of the most successful gyms in the sport. Borralho is also firmly in his prime at age 31. 

The middleweight title picture likely starts with a Dricus Du Plessis-Sean Strickland rematch. We will need some luck in maneuvering through a crowded division by the end of the year, but I do see a few paths. Borralho revealed the UFC’s Hunter Campbell confirmed he is likely one fight away from fighting for the title. A win over Israel Adesanya (if Borralho succeeds in securing that fight), or beating the winner of Whittaker-Chimaev are both plausible scenarios that would put our money in a very strong position.

Getting in on Borralho at +2500 also opens up hedging opportunities if he does indeed fight for the title. There is definitely enough value to plant my flag that Borralho becomes the Fighting Nerds’ first UFC Champion.  

Who Will be the UFC Men's Flyweight Champion?

UFC MEN’S FLYWEIGHT CHAMPION ON DECEMBER 31st 2025: Tatsuro Taira (+425; BetMGM) 

This one came down to Tatsuro Taira and Amir Albazi (+350). I can’t argue with taking a shot with Albazi at +350, but here’s why I see Taira as the better bet …

Both guys have high-profile fights coming up soon which will likely determine the pecking order for a crack at the title. Albazi faces former champion Brandon Moreno in November, and Taira tests himself against No. 1 contender Brandon Royval on October 12th.

Taira fighting first gives him the inside track to lock up a title shot with an impressive victory. That’s critical considering Alexandre Pantoja is set to defend his title before year’s end, pushing the timeline for another defense out to mid-2025. 

Outside of his path to the title, Taira also has an edge in marketability. The undefeated 24-year-old prospect will likely get a huge promotional push leaning into his quest to become the promotion’s first Japanese champion.

What makes it all come together is that Taira was wildly impressive in his most recent win over Alex Perez. Taira’s convincing win denounced the questions of whether he could hold his own against the division’s wrestlers. At +425, Taira is a solid play in a very volatile division.