One of the best parts about sports betting is the communal aspect. If you have a group of friends who all bet on the NFL, you can almost guarantee that they have a group chat where they’re discussing their bets throughout the week.
We’re no different here at Fantasy Life.
Our betting team—featuring Matthew Freedman, Eliot Crist, Geoff Ulrich, and myself—is routinely discussing our plays in the Fantasy Life Discord. Each of us has plays that we’re passionate about, and the goal is to get the other members on board as well.
Let’s dive into some of our group's favorite targets for NFL Week 1.
Sides
Tennessee Titans (+3.0) at New Orleans Saints
This is my personal favorite play of the week. I locked this bet in earlier this offseason at +3.5, and unfortunately, the line has come down a bit across the industry. That said, you can still get the Titans +3.0 at -112 on DraftKings Sportsbook. I still think that’s a great number.
The Titans start the year as one of the most undervalued teams in the betting market. They had an epic collapse down the stretch in 2022, but a lot of that can be attributed to their quarterback play. The team did not have a healthy Ryan Tannehill for most of the contests, and backups Malik Willis and Joshua Dobbs represented a clear downgrade.
Tannehill will be back at the helm vs. the Saints, and he’ll have a true No. 1 receiver at his disposal in DeAndre Hopkins. Tannehill’s numbers dipped last year without A.J. Brown to lean on, so Hopkins should hopefully be able to fill that void. The team also has some intriguing young pass-catchers in Treylon Burks and Chig Okonkwo, while Derrick Henry remains a massive presence in the backfield.
Dec 4, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Tennessee Titans wide receiver Treylon Burks (16) makes a touchdown catch in front of Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Josiah Scott (33) during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
On the other side, the Saints have emerged as the favorites in the worst division in football. They have a very good chance of winning the NFC South—largely due to their cupcake schedule—but that doesn’t make them a good football team.
The biggest reason for optimism with the Saints is the offseason acquisition of Derek Carr, but I’m not sure that Carr is any good at this point. He was 32nd among quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE, putting him right in the same ballpark as Andy Dalton (29th) and Jameis Winston (34th).
The Titans and Mike Vrabel have historically been excellent as underdogs, and Vrabel and Tannehill are a combined 13-9-1 ATS as dogs in the regular season. I think this is a phenomenal spot for them to start the season off right.
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
It seems like most of our crew is on the Falcons this week. I have no problem laying the points with them, while Ulrich has locked them in on the moneyline.
Atlanta has the potential to be improved this season. They spent the third-most money on free agents during the offseason, and they added another blue-chip prospect to their young offensive core. Bijan Robinson will take over as the lead back for a team that was 31st in Pass Rate Over Expectation in 2022.
There’s no doubt that Robinson is far better than anyone who toted the rock for the Falcons last season. He combines elite athleticism and collegiate production, so he’ll have a chance for success right out of the gates.
The Falcons are slightly further along on their rebuild than the Panthers, who will enter the Bryce Young era in 2023. He has the potential to turn that franchise around, but rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle out of the gates. They’ve gone just 10-29 in the first four weeks of the season over the past five years, so Young will likely experience some growing pains.
Add in some injuries to D.J. Chark (out) and Adam Thielen (questionable) at receiver, and Atlanta seems like the clear right side.
Props
Joshua Dobbs Under 210.5 passing yards (-120; PointsBet)
This is a Freedman special, and he makes a really compelling argument. He has Dobbs projected for closer to 160 passing yards, making this a MASSIVE value.
Dobbs has a few different ways to hit the under in this spot. For starters, he’s probably not an NFL-caliber starting quarterback. He started two games for the Titans down the stretch—the first two starts of his career—and he averaged just 5.31 adjusted yards per attempt. Don’t expect him to be much more efficient in Arizona.
Dobbs also figures to be on a pretty short leash. The Cardinals are clearly playing for the future this season, and they drafted Clayton Tune in the 2023 NFL Draft. Tune doesn’t have much of a pedigree, but it’s reasonable to expect that they want to see him under center at some point this year. If Dobbs struggles in Week 1, they could make the switch pretty early.
The Commanders’ pass-rush could also make life a living hell for whoever is at quarterback in this spot.
Garrett Wilson Over 5.5 receptions (-120; DraftKings)
Eliot could not be more excited about Wilson in 2023, and it’s safe to say that I’m on board. It seemed like 50% of Hard Knocks was dedicated to Rodgers’s blossoming relationship with the young receiver, while the other 50% was dedicated to Broadway shows.
Nov 27, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (17) celebrates his touchdown reception during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Wilson and Rodgers didn’t see much action during the preseason, but they did play two drives together in the final tune-up. If those drives are any indication, Wilson is poised for a monster year.
He was targeted three times on Rodgers’s eight attempts, not including a play where Wilson drew a flag. He responded with three catches, 30 yards, and a touchdown.
Wilson had at least six catches in seven games last season, and the Jets’ passing attack should undoubtedly be better than it was with Zach Wilson and Mike White.
Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown scorer (+375; PointsBet)
Let’s wrap things up with a touchdown scorer prop. This one is courtesy of Ulrich, who likes the Cowboys’ new tight end to find the paint against the Giants.
Ferguson will step into the role vacated by Dalton Schultz, who was a frequent target for Prescott in the red zone. He racked up eight receiving touchdowns during the 2021 regular season, and he followed that up with five scores from Week 9 on last year. Two of those scores came against the Giants, and he scored against Big Blue in 2021 as well.
Ferguson appeared to win the job as the Cowboys’ top tight end during the offseason, so he has the potential to step into a very appealing role for touchdown purposes. He’s currently priced at +375 on PointsBet, giving him an implied probability of just 21.05% to find the end zone. Touchdown props don’t always have the fairest odds, but this one seems good enough to bet.
