As I'm writing this sentence, the Chiefs-Ravens season opener has just ended.

I went 2-3 (-1.23 units) on props—so I'm already in midseason form.

Each week in this piece I'll highlight some of my favorite player props on the board, but for all my Week 1 bets check out our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.

If you're more of a serious sports speculator, you can also access my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections with a FantasyLife+ subscription. 

For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.

Here are five of my favorite player props for Week 1.

Odds and projections are as of Fri. 9/6 at 1 am ET.

Jacoby Brissett Under 32.5 Pass Attempts

  • Odds: -114 (FanDuel)
  • My Projection: 28.2

The Patriots are a week-worst +8.5 underdog, which might suggest that they will throw the ball frequently in an attempt to catch up with the Bengals.

But I don't think that's what we'll see.

As big home favorites, the Bengals could control the ball for much of the second half and grind down the clock with their running game, thereby limiting the number of possessions and plays the Patriots get.

Additionally, when the Patriots have the ball—winning or trailing—I can imagine them staying committed to the rush attack for far longer than they optimally should in an attempt to shorten the game and keep it close.

Finally, even though it's Week 1, there's a non-zero chance Brissett won't play the entire game. If he's absolutely terrible, he could get benched in earnest as early as halftime if the Patriots feel rookie backup QB Drake Maye gives them a better chance of pulling off a comeback.

And the Patriots as a team could be so bad and fall behind by so much that they decide to waive the white flag, pull their starters early, and give their benchwarmers significant playing time in mop-up duty. In this scenario, even though Brissett wouldn't officially be benched, he would still have a tough time hitting the over.

You put all that together, and it makes me like the under.

Tyler Allgeier Over 0.5 Receiving Yards

  • Odds: -115 (BetMGM)
  • My Projection: 9.1

Last year Allgeier saw a target in 12 of 17 games (70.6%), and for his career, he has an 85.0% catch rate.

I'm no mathematician. I'm just a dude with a spreadsheet.

But if we put those numbers together and assume that Allgeier's usage stays consistent this season, then that would give him a 56.8% chance in any game of having a reception.

With 8.2 yards per target as a rookie and 8.4 yards per target last season, the third-year backup has been efficient throughout his career at turning targets into positive yards, and that's what we're looking for—just one positive yard.

The main question is whether he'll get a target in this game.

I have him projected for 1.2 targets, as does the sharp Dwain McFarland, who manages our official Fantasy Life projections.

Johnny Mundt Under 2.5 Receptions

  • Odds: +100 (BetMGM)
  • My Projection: 2.1

If I can take the under on a backup-caliber TE at plus odds, I'm likely to do it—but that's not the only reason I'm highlighting this bet.

Right now I'm looking at our Prop Finder, and here's what I see for Mundt.

  • Receptions Made: BetMGM - Under 2.5 (+100)
  • Receptions Made: FanDuel - Over 2.5 (+126)

This is what is called a negative-hold situation. The "hold" refers to the percentage of money bet that the sportsbooks keep after all positions have been cleared. Basically, the hold is the sportsbooks' profit margin.

And right now in this market, the hold for the sportsbook is negative. Specifically, it's -6.1%, which is a great number for bettors to try to exploit.

So what's the best way to take advantage of this scenario?

That depends on your risk tolerance.

If you want a no-lose situation, then you put one unit on the over at FanDuel, one unit on the under at BetMGM, and move on with your life. If the under hits, you win nothing—but you also lose nothing, because your winnings will cover the over position. And if the over hits, then you win 26 cents for every two dollars invested.

If, however, you believe you have an edge in this market with your projections—and I do—then you'll simply bet the side you think is correct. Sure, you might be wrong, but at least you'll be taking a shot when the overall odds are in your favor. If you're going to bet, it's best to do so when the sportsbooks are essentially paying market participants to do it.

So I'm betting.

Last year, Mundt served as the injury fill-in for TE T.J. Hockenson (knee, PUP) in the two final games, and he was productive.

  • Week 17: 77% snap share | 4-39-1 receiving | 7 targets
  • Week 18: 75% snap share | 5-58-0 receiving | 6 targets

With Hockenson out for at least the first four games, these numbers suggest that I'm making a bad bet.

But there's a difference between Mundt stepping in at the end of a lost season while playing with a backup QB and him being a focal point of the pass offense at the beginning of the campaign.

Mundt might split snaps more evenly with No. 2 TE Josh Oliver than he did last season, and the potential progression of second-year WR Jordan Addison and the addition of veteran pass-catching RB Aaron Jones might mean that there will be fewer overall targets available for the Vikings TEs.

But really this all comes down to the fact that I like betting unders on players I think aren't very good—and if I can do so at plus money in a negative-hold market, then that's even better.

Zack Moss Under 12.5 Carries

  • Odds: +102 (BetRivers)
  • My Projection: 11.3

This is called “threading the needle.”

Part of my thesis for betting the under on Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett's prop of 32.5 pass attempts is the idea that the Bengals will control the ball, most likely with the running game.

Also, I noted Moss in my Week 1 Freedman's Favorites, because he's a big home favorite, he was productive over the past two seasons with the Colts when given the chance to be a lead back—and I think he'll get the first shot at leading the backfield for the Bengals this year.

So basically what I'm hoping for is that Moss gets 12 carries, four targets, 75-plus yards, and a TD … while operating in something of a committee with second-year RB Chase Brown.

And that could happen. Moss and Brown were treated similarly in Week 2 of the preseason, as if they were co-starters, and when Moss missed Week 1 with an illness, Brown played 100% of the starter snaps.

Although I like the situation for Moss against the Patriots, this backfield is still likely to be split in some way, and that makes Moss a candidate for the under.

Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD

  • Odds: -160 (DraftKings)
  • My Projection: 0.9 TDs, -291.7 odds

It's CMC ATD SZN, LFG!

Since joining the 49ers in the middle of the 2022 season, McCaffrey has played his typical workhorse role in 31 games (excluding his partial first game with the team in 2022 and his injury-impacted Week 17 last year; 25 in regular season, six in postseason).

In those 31 games, he has scored 39 TDs from scrimmage and found the endzone in all but four of them.

At -160, McCaffrey has an implied probability of 61.5% to score a TD in this game, but I have his true probability at 74.5% (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator) … and even that is far lower than his historical hit rate of 87.1% with the 49ers.

Last year, McCaffrey was No. 3 in the league with 21 carries inside the five-yard line (per our Fantasy Life Redzone Report), even with exiting Week 17 early and sitting out all of Week 18.

I have a bet on McCaffrey to lead the league in rushing TDs at +750, and I think he'll make some headway toward that goal in Week 1.

Last year, McCaffrey's anytime TD odds were regularly in the -200s, sometimes the -300s, and occasionally even the -400s and -500s.

We might never see odds as advantageous as -160 again for the rest of the season.