We’re back for Week 14. 

Last week was our fourth winning week in a row with the props, going 4-1 once again on the top five plays. The top five plays are now 14-6 since Week 10. Not too bad. 

For a full recap of how the individual NFL player props, see the bottom of this piece (or click here).

I’ll again be adding in a few Underdog Pick’em lineups at the end of the article. If you’re not familiar with Pick’em, make sure you check out our suite of Pick’em Tools, and free tracker where I post plays from Underdog and other sites every week. 

Just like usual, you can find all my Week 14 bets in our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker. It's free, as is our Betting Life Newsletter.

If you're a more serious sports speculator, you can also access the Fantasy Life weekly fantasy rankings and player projections with a FantasyLife+ subscription. 

For prop-specific tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Table.

Let’s dive in and get to this week’s top five props …

Week 14 NFL Player Prop Bets

Will Levis Over 208.5 passing yards

  • Odds: -115 (bet365)
  • Projection: 213

Levis has looked good since returning from injury. He's averaged 261 yards, 8.51 yards per attempt, and 1.66 passing TDs over his last three starts and bounced back from a horrific start last week against Washington to post respectable numbers and make the game semi-close at one point.

This week he gets a gift matchup of facing the Jaguars who have allowed a league-worst 8.6 yards per attempt against and may be without their top corner Tyson Campbell, who missed Wednesday's practice with a thigh injury. If Campbell does miss, there is a chance Levis and top option Calvin Ridley do some real damage in this spot.

Jacksonville allowed some monster games to oppose WRs when Campbell was out early in the season, including a 12-151-1 game to Nico Collins back in Week 4. While that makes Ridley someone to watch, Levis has had other options emerge of late as well.

Chig Okonkwo, an underrated athlete, caught a 70-yard catch and run TD a couple of weeks against Houston, and has big upside in this spot, while Nick Westbrook-Ikhine keeps getting disrespected by opposing defenses, who can’t guard against his size downfield or in the red zone.

While I’ll be looking to take some shots with Levis’ alternate lines and anytime TD props on his receivers, the over on his opening passing line makes sense as a nice prop to start off with this week. Jacksonville has only held one team to fewer than 220 passing yards all season (Deshaun Watson in Week 2) and Levis has been well over this number in three straight.

As long as the game stays competitive, he should have a great shot at hitting his over, making it a play for me up to 211.5 this week.

Tyrone Tracy Over 58.5 rushing yards 

  • Odds: -110 (bet365)
  • Projection: 58.0

I discussed Tracy in our my anytime TD column for Week 14 as well. Here’s a little of what I wrote there. 

“Since Week 5, Tracy has now played on 60%+ of the snaps for the Giants in all but one game (the blowout loss to the Buccaneers where he lost a fumble) and has dominated the red zone and I5 touches, with Devin Singletary taking just one red zone touch since Week 5. 

Tracy isn’t just a good red zone back either. He’s averaging 5.4 ypc and has already proven he can score from distance.

From a matchup perspective, it doesn’t get much better for a lead RB than New Orleans. The Saints have allowed 13 rushing TDs on the season (third most in the league) and have dropped all the way down to 31st in success rate and 30th in EPA per play against the rush.”

I do love the value on Tracy’s anytime TD prop this week if you can get it at +135, but understand the volatility of betting anytime TDs isn't for anyone. Our projections don’t have much of an edge either way on his current number but I am bullish on this spot for Tracy, who went well over this number in three straight games before a couple of rough starts where game flow limited his carries. 

With Drew Lock having a full week of practice and a weak rush defense on the other side, I like Tracy to outperform this week and added his over at 58.5 yards as a play in our Free Bet Tracker already, and would be fine making that bet up to 59.5 yards this week.

Jordan Addison Over 46.5 rec yards

  • Odds: -115 (FanDuel)
  • Projection: 54.0 

Addison is finally starting to shine for the Vikings. Over his last three games, the second-year WR has posted target shares of 27%, 29%, and 23%, averaging 7.5 targets per game over that span. They haven’t been empty targets either. In each of those three games, Addison ended the day with at least one end zone target and a team air yards share that eclipsed 35% (via our Utilization Report).

 

The Falcons are the opposite of a tough matchup as they allow the highest completion rate in the league (71%) to opposing QBs and have allowed the fifth-most receptions to opposing WRs this season. 

Over their past three games alone, six opposing WRs have eclipsed this 45.5-yard mark against Atlanta and that includes two 100-yard receivers.

With Justin Jefferson on the opposite side taking primary coverage, this should be a spot where Addison can find some open space downfield and deliver a big day. I’d play his over up to 48.5 in this spot and have added some exposure to his alternate lines and anytime TD props this week as well.

Tyler Conklin Over 2.5 receptions

  • Odds: +100 (bet365)
  • Projection: 2.6

As a bettor, if something is working, there is no reason not to keep repeating it over and over until something changes. That’s pretty much where I am at with the Miami Dolphins defense who allow the opposing TE (or TEs) they are up against to go buck-wild every week. 

Here are the Dolphins' last three games and what the opposing TEs managed to put up against this defense. 

It is possible that every TE on this list might be better miles better than Tyler Conklin, the Jets starting TE who is limited as an open-field runner. 

However, the Dolphins' like to play a lot of Cover Three, and that scheme tends to allow a lot of open field and easy catches over the middle. Conklin regularly plays 45-55 snaps every week as it is, and is also coming off a decent game (5 targets, 4 rec, and 32 yards). He also may not have a ton of competition for targets with Breece Hall banged up. 

Either way, with his reception total low at 2.5, and the over still available at +100 or better, this is one I added immediately and would play it down to -110 if needed.

Chuba Hubbard Under 14.5 Rushing Attempts 

  • Odds: -110 (bet365)
  • Projection: 12.5 

Hubbard and the Panthers are in a tough spot this week against the Eagles. They’re 12.5-point underdogs on the road and face an offense that dominates time of possession (third-highest TOP in the league at 32 minutes a game).

That’s going to make it hard for Hubbard to break off effective runs which could hurt his overall involvement in the offense this week. While Derrick Henry managed 19 carries against Philadelphia last week, we have seen several weaker teams lead RBs top out around 10 carries against the Eagles, simply due to lack of opportunity and game flow.

Hubbard also has some competition for carries now that rookie Jonathon Brooks is in the mix, who played on a season-high 15 snaps against Tampa, and took six carries. Just given the fact Hubbard fumbled late in OT in that game, it’s not hard to imagine HC Dave Canales potentially choosing to give the rookie more opportunity this week. 

When it boils down to it, our projections have Hubbard set at 12.5 carries so there is also some nice edge brewing on his under, which is still hovering at 14.5 at most books. I expect this total to potentially move down before kickoff but would play the under down to 14.5 (-130) if need be. 

Week 14 Underdog Pick’em Plays

Quick Note. You can find all my weekly Underdog plays in our FREE Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life, where we are now up well over 60 units on the season.

Keep checking there for more plays as the season wears on.

Underdog Card 1 (3-way, 9.12x multiplier)

I mentioned that I wanted to take some shots with Levis and some of his receivers this week and this is another avenue to achieving that goal. 

Parker Washington is also someone I had on my short list for props as he’s taken over slot duties for the most part in Jacksonville and has a great matchup with all of the injuries to the Titans' secondary. 

Blending his higher in with Levis and Ridley’s highers gives us a nice game stack at a bigger multiplier. 

 

Underdog Card #2 (5-way, 15.3x multiplier) 

As I mentioned above, I do love this spot for Jordan Addison. If he pops off the result should be more passing for Atlanta and fewer potential big plays for Aaron Jones, who did see a reduction in usage last week and has more competition for carries with Cam Akers playing well. 

Kyle Pitts has been terrible the last two weeks but has a very positive matchup and a very low prop, which makes his higher appealing to me. 

 

Underdog Card #3 (5-way, 16.5x multiplier) 

I like the Dolphins this week and think it’s a great spot for multiple of their big offensive players to post big days. Pairing the negatively correlated lower on Tua’s passing attempts with a higher on Jaylen Waddle’s receiving prop (which is very low at 45.5) gives us a nice boost to start our Pick’Em lineup with.  

Adding in the inevitable Achane TD with some passing highers on both Conklin and Rodgers gives us a 5-way stack centered around an efficient but effective game for the Dolphins.

 

Recapping Last Week's NFL Player Prop Bets

As I mentioned in the intro, last week was our fourth winning week in a row with the props, going 4-1 once again on the top five plays:

This was all despite Jaylen Warren not getting a carry in the first half and Taysom Hill not finishing the game. It’s good to run good.

View Our Entire Teams' Best Bets For Week 14