Week 3 Sunday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Steelers vs. Raiders.
This week’s Sunday Night Football showdown might not be the most glamorous. That said, it should at least be competitive.
The Steelers will travel to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders, and the spread on this game is listed at around a field goal.
Both of these squads have had similar results to start the year. The Raiders suffered a blowout loss to the Bills in Week 2, while the Steelers were blown out by the 49ers in Week 1. However, both teams managed to pull out close wins in their other contest.
Which team will move to 2-1 on Sunday? Let’s dive into all the betting angles for this matchup.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders
- Spread: Raiders -2.5 (-120; BetMGM)
- Total: 43.0
- Moneylines: Steelers +125/Raiders -150
Let’s start with the line. This number is down to Raiders -2.5 across most of the industry. The line has fluctuated between 2.5 and 3.0 for most of the week, which tells me that the sharps are split on this matchup.
Whenever the number is at 3.0, the action lands on the Steelers. When it’s at 2.5, it’s on the Raiders.
Overall, the Steelers have a slight edge when it comes to betting tickets (54%; via the Action Network), while the Raiders have a moderate edge in betting dollars (67%).
Regardless of where this line eventually settles, it suggests that the Raiders are a slightly better team than the Steelers on a neutral field.
The old adage of home-field advantage being worth three points is no longer the case. Home field these days is worth closer to 1.5 points, and for a team like the Raiders, it might be even less. It wouldn’t shock me if there were more Steelers fans than Raiders fans in the building on Sunday night.
The big question with the Steelers is can their offense finally get rolling?
They garnered some serious buzz during the preseason, with quarterback Kenny Pickett appearing ready to make a leap in Year Two. However, the offense has been nothing short of a disaster through the first two weeks.
Aug 11, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (14) celebrates with quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) after scoring a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
They’re 31st in yards per game, while Pickett ranks 26th in EPA + CPOE composite. Even in the Steelers' win over the Browns, their defense was responsible for 14 of the team’s 26 points.
However, their first two matchups have come against the 49ers and Browns, who boast two of the best defenses in the league. The Raiders are clearly not on that level.
They’re 31st in defensive EPA per play through the first two weeks, so this is a prime breakout spot for Pickett and company. If they can’t succeed in this matchup, it’s time to start panicking with the Steelers’ offense.
The Steelers' defense is a much stronger unit, so it’s hard to envision the same level of success for the Raiders. Like Pittsburgh, Vegas has struggled out of the gates offensively. They’re 30th in points and yards per game, and their schedule hasn’t been nearly as difficult.
While the 49ers and Browns both rank in the top three of EPA per play allowed, the Bills are 12th in that metric while the Broncos are 30th. Ultimately, the fact that the Raiders have struggled to move the ball is significantly more concerning.
I’ve already locked in a bet on the Steelers moneyline in our free Bet Tracker, but I’d suggest taking the three points if they’re still available. I think the Steelers are clearly the better team, but that’s not what the current betting numbers imply.
Player Prop Bets
One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry. There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing using the tool for this matchup.
Josh Jacobs currently has a carry prop set at 18.5 at PointsBet, which I think offers plenty of value. He hasn’t exactly been a workhorse to start the year, playing on just 77% of the team’s snaps and garnering just 69% of the rushing attempts.
Sep 17, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (8) gets past Buffalo Bills cornerback Taron Johnson (7) on a run in the second quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
His workload was clearly impacted by last week’s blowout, but Jacobs has just 28 carries on the year after leading the league in that department last season.
The Steelers haven’t been quite as strong against the run as they have been against the pass, but this is still a difficult matchup. I don’t see the Raiders getting out to a big lead, which could impact Jacobs’ workload once again. We have this number projected for closer to 16.5 carries, so the under seems like a solid target.
I’m also going to take a flyer on Calvin Austin over 26.5 receiving yards on DraftKings. He operated as the team’s clear No. 2 receiver last week with Diontae Johnson sidelined, running a route on 88% of the team’s dropbacks. That was way up from his mark of 54% in Week 1.
Austin also had some solid underlying metrics, including 36% of the team’s air yards. He led the team with a 16.25-yard average depth of target (aDOT), so his targets were coming well down the field. It’s possible he needs only one catch to hit the over on his current prop, and Pickett has a much greater chance of finding him against the Raiders than he did against the Browns.
Finally, Jakobi Meyers is set to return this week after missing the team’s previous game. Meyers was awesome in Week 1 – nine catches, 81 yards, and two touchdowns – but it wouldn’t shock me if that’s his best game of the entire season.
He still has to share the field with Davante Adams, who is one of the best receivers in football. Meyers had a larger target share than Adams in Week 1, but that seems like a bit of an outlier.
Ultimately, I’m happy to bet on a bit of regression for him in a tough matchup. You can grab the under on 55.5 receiving yards at -114 on FanDuel.
Same-Game Parlay
As usual, we’ll attempt to create a correlated same-game parlay that fits the narrative for how we think the game plays out.
It’s important to remember that same-game parlays are tough to hit, so they should be a small part of your overall betting strategy. That said, same-game parlays are also fun, and there’s nothing wrong with sprinkling in a bit of fun every now and again.
If you’re doing SGPs correctly, you want your bets to tell a consistent story: If one leg hits, it makes it more likely that the others do as well.
Since I like the Steelers in this matchup, I’m going to tailor this SGP around what I think a Steelers’ victory looks like.
It obviously starts with the Steelers' moneyline. After that, I think buying low on the Steelers’ offense makes a ton of sense. Pickett showed he can move the ball during the preseason, and the Raiders defense isn’t much more than a glorified preseason unit.
A Steelers’ lead also fits well with the Jacobs’ rushing unders. Add it all up, and it looks something like this:
That feels like a pretty reasonable outcome if we expect the Steelers to win. You could always add some additional legs if you want to increase the variance, but I try to keep things to around four legs.
You can tail the SGP at BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to claim your First Bet Offer and start betting TODAY!
Regardless of how you choose to play this game, good luck this week!
