One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number—also known as closing-line value—it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.

So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.

With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 5 and look for some opportunities to find value.

Carolina Panthers (+5.0) at Chicago Bears

  • Current Line: -110; DraftKings
  • Bet To: +4.5 (-115)

The Bears managed to pick up their second win of the season, but it was far from smooth sailing vs. the Rams. They managed just 264 yards of total offense despite facing a Rams defense that entered the week 31st in EPA per play. Caleb Williams managed to avoid the turnovers—something that plagued him over the previous two weeks—but he generated almost no explosive plays. D’Andre Swift led the team with 72 receiving yards, while DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze combined for just 7 catches and 66 yards.

The Bears’ defense did manage to force 2 turnovers vs. Matthew Stafford, but they still surrendered 322 yards. The Rams are still playing without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, so it’s not the type of performance that moves the needle in my eyes.

The Panthers were unable to pick up their second straight win with Andy Dalton, but they had another impressive offensive performance. They put up 24 points and 375 yards of total offense. Chuba Hubbard rushed for 100+ yards for the second straight game, while Dalton threw for 2 more touchdowns.

Ultimately, the Panthers still seem undervalued with Dalton under center, while the Bears are overvalued. They’re not going to be able to rely solely on their defense in Week 5, and Williams has shown zero ability to beat teams with his arm.

Washington Commanders (-3.0) vs. Cleveland Browns

  • Current Line: -115; DraftKings
  • Bet To: -3.0 (-120)

The Commanders are for real, folks. Their offense may be young and unproven, but you simply cannot deny the results at this point. They were actually forced to punt in Week 4—their first punt since the first game of the year—but they rattled off 42 points and 449 yards vs. the Cardinals. They entered the week No. 2 in EPA per play offensively, and it would not be a shock if they jumped to No. 1 heading into Week 5.

Specifically, the Commanders’ rushing attack is an absolute monster. Jayden Daniels is one of the best athletes to ever play quarterback at the NFL level, and he’s creating massive rushing lanes for his backfield mates. Including Daniels, the team rushed for more than 215 yards vs. the Cardinals.

Of course, it is worth noting that the Commanders have beaten up on the Cardinals, Bengals, and Giants. That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of competition.

They’ll face a bit stiffer test this week vs. the Browns, but Cleveland hasn’t looked nearly as dominant defensively as it did in 2023. The Browns entered Week 4 just 13th in EPA per play, and they were unable to beat a Raiders squad missing Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby.

Offensively, the Browns are a disaster. Deshaun Watson is playing like one of the worst quarterbacks in football, and their offensive line is in shambles. They were missing Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills entering Week 4, and starting center Ethan Pocic exited Sunday’s contest with an injury. Things are going from bad to worse, and while the eventual return of Nick Chubb should help, he’s not expected to play in Week 5.

Quite simply, the Browns are going to need to score some points to keep up with Daniels and Co. With their current roster, I’m not sure how that’s possible.

Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) vs. New York Giants

  • Current Line: -120; FanDuel
  • Play To: -6.5 (-110)

The Seahawks are going to be in a pretty poor rest spot vs. the Giants in Week 5. They’re going to be on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football, while the Giants will have extra time to prepare after playing this past Thursday night.

Will that matter? I don’t think so. The Giants are simply not a very good football team. Their offense revolves around one player—Malik Nabers—and he went down with a concussion in Week 4. That puts his status vs. the Seahawks in jeopardy.

Nabers has been a one-man wrecking crew for the Giants. The team has managed 881 passing yards through their first four games, and Nabers has been responsible for 386 of them. Without him, how are they possibly going to overcome a talented Seahawks’ pass defense?

Even with Nabers, the Giants haven’t exactly been lighting up scoreboards. They’ve averaged just 15.0 points per game through their first four contests. They scored just 15 points against a Cowboys defense that was absolutely shredded by the Saints and Ravens over the previous two weeks.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ offense looks reinvigorated in the first year under offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Geno Smith is 9th among QBs in EPA + CPOE composite, while DK Metcalf appears poised for a career year. The team appears to have Kenneth Walker ready to return on Monday Night Football, as he’ll be back in the lineup after he missed Weeks 2 and 3.

This line is currently available at -5.5 (-120) on FanDuel, but it’s already up to -6.5 at most locations. If the Seahawks play well on Monday night vs. the Lions, it wouldn’t be a huge shock if this number got up to 7.0. I like the idea of locking this one in before the Seahawks have a chance to play.