Week 7 Sunday Night Football Betting Breakdown. Best Bets for Dolphins @ Eagles
This may be the best week of football yet in 2023. We had a solid matchup on Thursday Night Football, and the marquee games on Sunday are juicy.
That includes a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Dolphins and Eagles. Both teams are atop their respective conferences at 5-1, and both teams are among the top five teams in Super Bowl odds.
Who has the edge in this potential Super Bowl preview? Let’s dive into all the betting angles for Sunday Night Football.
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles
- Spread: Eagles -3.0 (-105; BetMGM)
- Total: 51.5
- Moneylines: Dolphins +125 / Eagles -150
The Dolphins have been the story of the early season. We’ve seen their historic offense blaze through the first six games with nearly 3,000 yards of total offense thus far. The amount of accolades this Miami offense has racked up is absolutely staggering. The Dolphins are currently:
- Averaging 8.0 yards per play; no other team is above 6.0
- Leading the league in rushing (181.6) and passing (316.8) yards per game, something that hasn’t been done since 1941
- Leading the NFL in both passing TDs (15) and rushing TDs (15), something that hasn’t been done since 1958
On top of their team stats, the Dolphins' individual players are also setting records. Tyreek Hill has more receiving yards through six weeks (814) than any player in the Super Bowl era, and Raheem Mostert’s 11 TDs through six weeks are the most since Shaun Alexander’s MVP-winning campaign in 2005.
Although the above scoring figures are absolutely mind-blowing, it’s important to provide some context.
The Dolphins have breezed through the easy portion of their schedule. They’ve torched the Chargers, Broncos, Giants, and Panthers, all of whom rank in the bottom six in EPA allowed per play.
However, while Miami has averaged an absurd 552.5 yards and 44.8 points in those four matchups, they averaged just 391.0 yards and 22.0 points in their two tougher games against the Bills and Patriots. Those scoring figures are still nothing to scoff at, but they’re not going to remind anyone of the Greatest Show on Turf.
The good news for the Dolphins is that the Eagles’ defense has slipped a bit in 2023. They were an outstanding unit last year, ranking second in yards and eighth in points defensively, but Philadelphia's defense is down to ninth and 15th, respectively, this season. In terms of EPA allowed per play, the Eagles defense has also been average, ranking just 17th in the league.
In short, the Dolphins' offense probably won’t look quite as good as they have to start the year, but they should still be able to move the ball. The bigger question for Miami is on defense, as they've ranked just 23rd in EPA allowed per play thus far.
Oct 15, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) throws the ball during the first half against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
That's good news for a Philadelphia offense that's struggled to repeat the same level of success they had in 2022. Specifically, Jalen Hurts has taken a major step back in terms of his efficiency. Hurts was a frontrunner in the MVP race last season prior to getting hurt, but he simply hasn’t been the same player so far in 2023.
Hurts racked up 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt last year, but he’s down to just 6.4 so far this season. Hurts also has a 1:1 TD-to-INT ratio through six weeks with seven TDs and seven INTs, and he's been less efficient as a runner.
Luckily, the Eagles still boast an elite rushing attack behind a stout offensive line. They currently rank third in EPA per rush, which matches up extremely well against a Dolphins defense that ranks just 25th in EPA allowed per rush. Philadelphia should be able to control the clock on Sunday night and help keep a dangerous Miami offense on the sidelines.
Sunday Night Football Best Bet: Under 51.5 (-110, BetMGM)
It’s definitely scary to target the under when the Dolphins are involved. Their six contests have averaged more than 63 points per game, and when they go over, they tend to go way over. That said, Miami is still just 4-2 to the over this season.
In general, the 2023 NFL season has seen a historic start for unders.
They’ve gone 56-37-1 through the first six-plus weeks, good for a 14.9% return on investment. Unders were also phenomenal last season (151-119-1; 7.0% ROI), so the sportsbooks have struggled to adjust to the way teams are currently playing.
Additionally, primetime unders have been a smash spot for the past few years. The public tends to love to bet on offense, and Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football get plenty of public action.
Since the start of 2019, unders in Sunday and Monday night games have gone a remarkable 94-57-3. That means that a $100 bettor would be up nearly $3,000 if they simply took the under in each of those contests.
I think the Eagles should be able to control the time of possession with their rushing attack, which should lead to a few long, sustained drives. The Dolphins’ offense also may not look as explosive as they have against some of the league’s cellar-dwellers. Add it all up, and points might be a bit harder to come by than expected in this game.
You can tail the under at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win by signing up below!
Sunday Night Football Player Props
One of my favorite tools at Fantasy Life is the Player Prop Tool, which allows you to compare our current projections to the various prop betting lines across the industry.
There are a few wagers that stand out as appealing when using the tool for this matchup.
Raheem Mostert Under 13.5 Carries (-114, FanDuel)
- Bet To: Under 13.5 (-135)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 12.5
The Dolphins’ rushing attack has been phenomenal this season with Mostert leading the way while De'Von Achane has been out. That said, there are two potential pitfalls for Mostert this week.
First, although the Eagles’ defense may not be as elite as they were last season overall, they’ve still been solid against the run. Philadelphia's defense currently ranks 12th in rushing success rate, and they’ve held five of their first six opponents to 89 yards or fewer on the ground.
The Eagles have been a bit more vulnerable against the pass, so it might make more sense for the Dolphins to try and exploit that with a more pass-heavy offense on Sunday night.
Oct 15, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) runs the ball against Carolina Panthers cornerback CJ Henderson (23) and cornerback Troy Hill (13) during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Second, Mostert will face a bit more competition for touches this week. The team is still without Achane, but Jeff Wilson Jr. has been activated from IR. Though Wilson isn't as big of a threat to Mostert’s touches as Achane, he should still siphon off enough carries to keep Mostert under 13.5.
Mostert saw 17 carries last week, but he’s still gone under 13.5 in four of six games this season. I expect the Dolphins to have fewer possessions than usual, and with the added backfield competition, that makes the under for Mostert a solid play.
Jalen Hurts Under 32.5 Passing Attempts (+110, FanDuel)
- Bet To: Under 32.5 (+110) or Under 33.5 (-115)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 34.0
Our projections don’t like Hurts’s under quite as much as I do, but I think that this will be a perfect game script for a run-heavy approach from the Eagles. Their rushing attack is one of the best in the league, and they should be able to take advantage of the Dolphins' weak run defense in that department.
We’ve already seen Philadelphia lean on their run game in primetime against the Vikings in Week 2. In that game, the Eagles had a 16-play drive where 15 of those plays were runs. I’m not saying that I necessarily expect that level of commitment to the run game against the Dolphins, but it wouldn’t shock me if the Eagles are more run-heavy than usual.
You can tail these props on FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up and place your first bet of $5 or more!
DeVonta Smith Under 5.5 Receptions (-150, DraftKings)
- Bet To: Under 5.5 (-160)
- Fantasy Life Projection: 4.6
This prop is juiced a bit heavier than we’d ideally like, but it still grades out as a decent value using our projections. This bet also pairs well with the under on Hurts’s passing attempts.
Smith is coming off a big showing last week against the Jets, where he saw a season-high 11 targets. However, he still managed just five receptions on those 11 targets, and Smith has gone under 5.5 receptions in four of six contests this year. I’m expecting it to be five of seven by Monday morning.
Dallas Goedert Anytime Touchdown (+190, DraftKings)
While I’m not expecting a huge night for the Eagles’ passing attack, there are still some opportunities to look for value. Fantasy Life’s resident TD guru Geoff Ulrich likes Dallas Goedert to find the paint against Miami:
“Goedert’s usage over the last few weeks has been extremely encouraging. The Eagles' TE has averaged a 23% target share over his last two games and accumulated five red-zone targets in his last three outings as well – one of which ended with a TD against the Rams.
The Dolphins' secondary is attackable and has allowed the eighth-most receptions to opposing TEs already, and they ceded scores to TEs in each of their first two games.
The ball could be in the end zone a lot in this game, and with the prices we're seeing on Goedert, he makes sense as an anytime TD target to chase for the game of the week.”
Read more of Geoff’s musings in his anytime TD scorers piece for NFL Week 7.
You can tail the Goedert anytime TD bet on DraftKings, where you can sign up to get $200 in bonus bets by placing an initial bet of $5 or more. Click below to get started!
Same-Game Parlay
Same-game parlays (SGPs) are about telling a story. Will the Dolphins' offense continue to eviscerate everything in its path? Or will the Eagles' defense reign supreme on Sunday night? There are ways to tell yourself a story to correlate your SGP and profit.
As usual, we’ll attempt to build a correlated same-game parlay for Sunday Night Football. The goal is to build a parlay where if one leg hits, the odds of the other legs hitting also increase.
I’m starting with the under since that’s my favorite play in this matchup. I also think that an under tends to correlate better with an Eagles win than a Dolphins win. For Miami to pull off a road upset, they'll likely need to get to 30-plus points, but I could see Philadelphia grinding out a more low-scoring victory.
I’d like to throw in the unders on Smith and Hurts discussed above, but unfortunately, the closest we can get are the unders on their yardage props. Not ideal, but it’ll do.
Finally, I’m going to go with an alternate over for D’Andre Swift. If this game is going to play out like I’m hoping, the Eagles need to move the ball on the ground. With Swift currently their clear No. 1 RB, I’ll add at least 80 yards on the ground for him.
Ultimately, the final product looks like this:
This SGP seems pretty reasonable to me. You could always go with a slightly larger number for Swift or add an anytime TD leg to make it extra spicy, but I try to keep my SGPs to five legs max.
Regardless of how you choose to play this contest, good luck this week!
You can tail this SGP on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!
